Originally Posted by
IRUNGUNS
For my gunnie friends. This is long but worth the read:
OICs significance
It is not the Liberals who give 30 days notice. The Canadian Firearms Program revokes your registration certificate and it is the CFP that gives 30 days to comply. And they have ALWAYS given 30 days regardless of what government was in power.
30 days is not an arbitrary amount of time. The firearms act gives you 30 days to appeal a revocation, and the 30 day compliance window is to allow you to file an appeal. Once you file the appeal the revocation is stayed until the judge settles it.
No one is interested in getting an injunction to an OIC because in order for it to work you need to know the wording of the regulation before its published which is almost impossible. Its also unnecessary.
Familiarize yourself with the details of the administration of law and you will realize that a ban by OIC is nothing to fear, and if you want Trudeau to lose the next election it is actually something to hope for, as long as you possess the stones to fight it.
Walk with me. (Metaphorically)
Government bans (hypothetically) handguns by OIC on June 1st. Regulations typically require 30 days before coming into force, in order to allow the affected government department time to respond, but let's assume Justin goes full retard and it comes into force immediately. The CFP gets notified, reviews the law and realizes approximately 900,000 restricted firearms and 100,000 prohibited firearms, all handguns, are registered and those registrations must be revoked.
By law, revocations need to be sent registered mail. That's almost 1 million pieces of correspondence that need to generated, reviewed, stuffed in an envelop and posted. Thats one green sheet of paper for the address, one for the revocation notice, and possibly one for a new registration certificate if grandfathered status permits ownership as a prohib. Go to your local office supply store and look at how many boxes three million pieces of paper is. Imagine 1 million envelopes. Ask your mail man how many letters he can deliver in a day. The roll out of this will be anything but quick.
The CFP is already allegedly having trouble with their printers keeping up with the routine issuance of 400,000 licenses annually. You think that the CFP is just going to up and deliver 1 million pieces of registered mail at the drop of a hat?
It will take months and it will be a gong show. Summer vacation is coming and the CFP has been chronically undermanned already. The malingerers will all take stress leave and the union will be stepping in to signal crushing workloads and lobbying for more staff. There will be an epic number of complains when other routine work goes undone, and their performance standards will drop below the acceptable service standards to such an extent that managers performance bonuses will be affected; The first time a manager throws a hissy fit there will be accusations of toxic work place, investigations etc.
The CFP simply does not have the manpower tools or funding to roll out mass revocation of registration certificates. To contract that would take months and probably involve privacy violations. Either way the costs will be significant and immediate.
Slowly, eventually, the revocation notices will start to show up. They will allow 30 days for compliance. By now we are well in July, with the seizure notice effective in August. Just in time to ruin everyone's summer vacation and when the media will be hunting for some salacious political happenings in the middle of the summer doldrums. Gun owners everyone vowing non compliance. Others claiming its impossible to comply due to a lack of responsiveness from the CFP. Local forces will claim way too cash strapped chasing actual criminals to follow up. Municipal forces still haven't followed up with the half a million prohibited handguns that went dark after the last round of bans 20 years ago. This will make news, and in a bad way for government, right in time to kick off the election.
Every revocation notice is supposed to include instructions for filing a S74 judicial review. Every single person subject to revocation is entitled to review by a provincial judge. Now we are certain to lose that appeal, but that's not the point. First, filing the appeal buys you time, as I mentioned, the revocation noticed is on hold until the judge settles it. Second, if even 20% of affected owners filed appeals, we would be talking 50k to 100k court cases that must be handled by an already overloaded legal system where legit murderers are being acquitted due to excessive delays in court times. With 100k judicial reviews on the books crown prosecutors will be first in line begging the government to rescind the revocations, otherwise more murderers will walk free. Organized criminals will take note. The provinces would need to create whole new courts just to handle the backlog and demand the federal government to cover the costs while the media will be there asking at what cost and at what benefit. While the gun orgs may not have the resources to fight to the fight directly, they will be advocating everyone file their judicial review application. And not only is this a perfectly legitimate exercise of our legal rights, its also an excellent PR stunt and act of civil disobedience that will force the government's hand.
Not exactly something the liberals will enjoy campaigning on and even the NDP would campaign on putting an end to it, especially with thousands of gun owners in every single riding begging any party that will listen to put an end to it.
Under normal circumstances it takes months, 6 or more, for the court to get around to handling revocation reviews. With that many all at once it will take years, which is plenty of time for the next government to reverse.
Now, remember that per section 12.8 of the firearms, all guns prohibited by OIC are entitled to grandfathering. Banning by oic can't change that. Only legislation can. So the government goes through the ass pain of the ban and doesn't actually get to remove any guns from circulation.
Further, 12.6.1 handguns are already banned and grandfathered. Even if they were banned again by OIC, only legislation can repeal the original grandfathering because it is baked into the firearms act. So even if a new handgun ban by OIC was successful the ban would ironically let the allegedly more dangerous handguns stay in circulation while trying to seize the longer barreled sport pistols. A curious irony that no Liberal will be able to convincingly explain.
If anyone in the Liberal party had two brain cells to rub together (remains to be seen) there is no way they would ban anything by OIC this close to an election. And as we already know, there isn't any time for legislation. While the Liberals may be stupid enough or desperate enough to try, if you familiarize yourself with the logistics you quickly realize it is nothing to be afraid of.
The only thing to fear is a future government that has a four year majority and the determination to stay the course. Then there will be some tough choices ahead.
Between now and October the only thing guns owners need to do is take a deep breath, shoot all summer and help an unlicensed friend get their license, help a licensed friend buy their first restricted, and be vigilant. If a revocation notice comes file your application for judicial review get your court date and vote accordingly.
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