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Thread: The Battlegrounds of the 2019 Election

  1. #31
    Member C-7.62x51's Avatar
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    I just moved from a staunch Conservative riding (Chilliwack, BC) to Mission –Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, B.C., Liberal MP Jati Sidhu (2.3%). I've been chatting up every neighbor and person I see to get this clown ousted. Gonna donate to Brad Vis' Conservative campaign and see what else I can do.

    C.

  2. #32
    CGN Ultra frequent flyer rangebob's Avatar
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    A post of mine from Nov 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by rangebob
    If just 40 seats across the country changed from liberal to cpc we'd have a strong cpc minority, and with a few more a majority.
    I thought I'd give that a try and see what it worked out to.

    district, conservative votes, liberal votes, ndp votes, winner, difference winner vs conservative
    sorted by last column (difference winner vs conservative)

    1) Edmonton Mill Woods, 60969, 61220, 18982, liberal, 251
    2) Hastings--Lennox and Addington, 41319, 41917, 12565, liberal, 598
    3) Calgary Centre, 55436, 57092, 6824, liberal, 1656
    4) Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon, 31134, 33231, 18341, liberal, 2097
    5) Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill, 46082, 48236, 5820, liberal, 2154
    6) Edmonton Centre, 37425, 39825, 26189, liberal, 2400
    7) York Centre, 37786, 40240, 6296, liberal, 2454
    8) Kildonan--St. Paul, 34956, 37415, 12541, liberal, 2459
    9) Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge, 32746, 35278, 30900, liberal, 2532
    10) Nunavut, 2956, 5618, 3153, liberal, 2662
    11) Newmarket--Aurora, 48116, 51021, 9612, liberal, 2905
    12) King--Vaughan, 48340, 51846, 7142, liberal, 3506
    13) Richmond Hill, 42550, 46064, 7900, liberal, 3514
    14) Fundy Royal, 34722, 38276, 16411, liberal, 3554
    15) Whitby, 54139, 57768, 13338, liberal, 3629
    16) Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam, 36166, 39807, 30863, liberal, 3641
    17) Northumberland--Peterborough South, 50330, 54101, 18823, liberal, 3771
    18) New Brunswick Southwest, 29249, 33312, 9537, liberal, 4063
    19) Kenora, 17511, 21816, 20799, liberal, 4305
    20) Oakville North--Burlington, 51828, 56267, 8790, liberal, 4439
    21) Vaughan--Woodbridge, 41393, 46172, 4396, liberal, 4779
    22) Cambridge, 40912, 45712, 14652, liberal, 4800
    23) Burlington, 59558, 64457, 12715, liberal, 4899
    24) Kitchener South--Hespeler, 34963, 40304, 14972, liberal, 5341
    25) Calgary Skyview, 35770, 41288, 7210, liberal, 5518
    26) Steveston--Richmond East, 33260, 38972, 10496, liberal, 5712
    27) St. Catharines, 42994, 49375, 18885, liberal, 6381
    28) Niagara Centre, 32405, 38945, 34321, liberal, 6540
    29) Tobique--Mactaquac, 28434, 35834, 8679, liberal, 7400
    30) Québec, 23698, 31100, 29025, liberal, 7402
    31) Mississauga--Lakeshore, 48920, 56474, 9573, liberal, 7554
    32) Markham--Stouffville, 51128, 58833, 7338, liberal, 7705
    33) Kelowna--Lake Country, 51014, 59228, 18083, liberal, 8214
    34) Mississauga--Streetsville, 45142, 53382, 10071, liberal, 8240
    35) Burnaby North--Seymour, 29170, 37680, 30762, liberal, 8510
    36) Egmont, 12370, 21042, 8194, liberal, 8672
    37) Oakville, 54984, 63923, 7660, liberal, 8939
    38) Miramichi--Grand Lake, 25032, 34304, 11181, liberal, 9272
    39) Eglinton--Lawrence, 45389, 54772, 6601, liberal, 9383
    40) Louis-Hébert, 33464, 42869, 25633, liberal, 9405
    41) Peterborough--Kawartha, 47082, 58250, 25150, liberal, 11168
    42) Northwest Territories, 6896, 18338, 11628, liberal, 11442
    43) Scarborough--Agincourt, 31611, 43184, 6526, liberal, 11573

    if 235,439 liberal voters had switched to conservative in these districts (1..43), then the conservatives would have a minority.

    This would be the minimum number of electoral district changed to get a minority government.

    44) Cloverdale--Langley City, 37616, 49216, 16889, liberal, 11600
    45) Mississauga--Erin Mills, 43398, 55038, 10412, liberal, 11640
    46) Brampton Centre, 26690, 38554, 11886, liberal, 11864
    47) Yukon, 9728, 21602, 7833, liberal, 11874
    48) Sault Ste. Marie, 27230, 39222, 19086, liberal, 11992
    49) Mount Royal, 36414, 48504, 7773, liberal, 12090
    50) Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley, 36926, 49062, 5691, liberal, 12136
    51) Don Valley North, 34556, 46988, 7782, liberal, 12432
    52) Chicoutimi--Le Fjord, 14481, 27300, 26144, liberal, 12819
    53) Vancouver South, 30223, 43548, 12486, liberal, 13325
    54) Hamilton East--Stoney Creek, 25491, 39166, 32930, liberal, 13675
    55) Pickering--Uxbridge, 44675, 58867, 10785, liberal, 14192
    56) London West, 48070, 62339, 20168, liberal, 14269
    57) Labrador, 3432, 17756, 3558, liberal, 14324
    58) Brampton North, 31774, 46605, 15886, liberal, 14831
    59) Willowdale, 34026, 48950, 6429, liberal, 14924
    60) Kanata--Carleton, 49658, 64948, 8626, liberal, 15290
    61) Brampton South, 31858, 47362, 9677, liberal, 15504
    62) Saint John--Rothesay, 25752, 41256, 14897, liberal, 15504
    63) Scarborough Centre, 29248, 45506, 10453, liberal, 16258
    64) Scarborough North, 21475, 37807, 17295, liberal, 16332
    65) Don Valley West, 38412, 54882, 6152, liberal, 16470
    66) Fleetwood--Port Kells, 28548, 45712, 20924, liberal, 17164
    67) Charlottetown, 6272, 23820, 9794, liberal, 17548
    68) Delta, 36488, 54835, 16617, liberal, 18347
    69) Bay of Quinte, 39663, 58647, 14082, liberal, 18984
    70) Etobicoke Centre, 46145, 65324, 9772, liberal, 19179
    71) Kitchener Centre, 31492, 50718, 17359, liberal, 19226

    if 649,232 liberal voters had switched to conservative in these districts (1..71), then the conservatives would have a majority.

    ===================

    Instead of just "liberal to cpc",
    I tried "liberal or NDP, to cpc", and I got this

    district, conservative votes, liberal votes, ndp votes, winner, difference winner vs conservative

    1) Elmwood--Transcona, 29296, 25250, 29408, ndp, 112
    2) Edmonton Mill Woods, 60969, 61220, 18982, liberal, 251
    3) Regina--Lewvan, 33412, 26287, 33687, ndp, 275
    4) Kootenay--Columbia, 46491, 24630, 47058, ndp, 567
    5) Hastings--Lennox and Addington, 41319, 41917, 12565, liberal, 598
    6) Calgary Centre, 55436, 57092, 6824, liberal, 1656
    7) Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon, 31134, 33231, 18341, liberal, 2097
    8) Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill, 46082, 48236, 5820, liberal, 2154
    9) Edmonton Centre, 37425, 39825, 26189, liberal, 2400
    10) York Centre, 37786, 40240, 6296, liberal, 2454
    11) Kildonan--St. Paul, 34956, 37415, 12541, liberal, 2459
    12) Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge, 32746, 35278, 30900, liberal, 2532
    13) Nunavut, 2956, 5618, 3153, liberal, 2662
    14) Newmarket--Aurora, 48116, 51021, 9612, liberal, 2905
    15) King--Vaughan, 48340, 51846, 7142, liberal, 3506
    16) Richmond Hill, 42550, 46064, 7900, liberal, 3514
    17) Fundy Royal, 34722, 38276, 16411, liberal, 3554
    18) Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River, 27325, 30696, 30919, ndp, 3594
    19) Whitby, 54139, 57768, 13338, liberal, 3629
    20) Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam, 36166, 39807, 30863, liberal, 3641
    21) Northumberland--Peterborough South, 50330, 54101, 18823, liberal, 3771
    22) New Brunswick Southwest, 29249, 33312, 9537, liberal, 4063
    23) Kenora, 17511, 21816, 20799, liberal, 4305
    24) Oakville North--Burlington, 51828, 56267, 8790, liberal, 4439
    25) Vaughan--Woodbridge, 41393, 46172, 4396, liberal, 4779
    26) Cambridge, 40912, 45712, 14652, liberal, 4800
    27) Burlington, 59558, 64457, 12715, liberal, 4899
    28) Saskatoon West, 24787, 18495, 29827, ndp, 5040
    29) Kitchener South--Hespeler, 34963, 40304, 14972, liberal, 5341
    30) Calgary Skyview, 35770, 41288, 7210, liberal, 5518
    31) Steveston--Richmond East, 33260, 38972, 10496, liberal, 5712
    32) St. Catharines, 42994, 49375, 18885, liberal, 6381
    33) Niagara Centre, 32405, 38945, 34321, liberal, 6540
    34) Port Moody--Coquitlam, 32529, 33776, 39408, ndp, 6879
    35) Essex, 43197, 25277, 50145, ndp, 6948
    36) Burnaby South, 24882, 31094, 32188, ndp, 7306
    37) Tobique--Mactaquac, 28434, 35834, 8679, liberal, 7400
    38) Québec, 23698, 31100, 29025, liberal, 7402
    39) Mississauga--Lakeshore, 48920, 56474, 9573, liberal, 7554
    40) Markham--Stouffville, 51128, 58833, 7338, liberal, 7705
    41) Kelowna--Lake Country, 51014, 59228, 18083, liberal, 8214
    42) Mississauga--Streetsville, 45142, 53382, 10071, liberal, 8240
    43) Burnaby North--Seymour, 29170, 37680, 30762, liberal, 8510
    44) Egmont, 12370, 21042, 8194, liberal, 8672
    45) Oakville, 54984, 63923, 7660, liberal, 8939
    46) Miramichi--Grand Lake, 25032, 34304, 11181, liberal, 9272
    47) Eglinton--Lawrence, 45389, 54772, 6601, liberal, 9383

    If these districts (1..47), 191,851 liberal voters had switched to conservative, and 30,721 ndp voters had switched to conservative, then the conservatives would have a minority government. That's a total of 222,572 votes.

    This would be the minimum number of votes changed to get a minority government.


    48) Louis-Hébert, 33464, 42869, 25633, liberal, 9405
    49) South Okanagan--West Kootenay, 39765, 37459, 49646, ndp, 9881
    50) Hamilton Mountain, 25977, 33864, 36192, ndp, 10215
    51) Peterborough--Kawartha, 47082, 58250, 25150, liberal, 11168
    52) Northwest Territories, 6896, 18338, 11628, liberal, 11442
    53) Scarborough--Agincourt, 31611, 43184, 6526, liberal, 11573
    54) Cloverdale--Langley City, 37616, 49216, 16889, liberal, 11600
    55) London--Fanshawe, 29779, 34328, 41388, ndp, 11609
    56) Mississauga--Erin Mills, 43398, 55038, 10412, liberal, 11640
    57) Jonquière, 16249, 27370, 28078, ndp, 11829
    58) Brampton Centre, 26690, 38554, 11886, liberal, 11864
    59) Yukon, 9728, 21602, 7833, liberal, 11874
    60) Sault Ste. Marie, 27230, 39222, 19086, liberal, 11992
    61) Mount Royal, 36414, 48504, 7773, liberal, 12090
    62) Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley, 36926, 49062, 5691, liberal, 12136
    63) Don Valley North, 34556, 46988, 7782, liberal, 12432
    64) Chicoutimi--Le Fjord, 14481, 27300, 26144, liberal, 12819
    65) Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot, 18196, 29910, 31056, ndp, 12860
    66) Drummond, 18442, 27586, 31666, ndp, 13224
    67) Vancouver South, 30223, 43548, 12486, liberal, 13325
    68) Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing, 19640, 28222, 33085, ndp, 13445
    69) Nanaimo--Ladysmith, 32239, 32589, 45757, ndp, 13518
    70) Hamilton East--Stoney Creek, 25491, 39166, 32930, liberal, 13675
    71) Courtenay--Alberni, 39345, 30378, 53177, ndp, 13832

    If these districts (1..71), 370,886 liberal voters had switched to conservative, and 141,134 ndp voters had switched to conservative, then the conservatives would have a majority government. That's a total of 512,020 votes.

    17,559,353 voted out of 25,638,379 registered electors.
    222,572 / 17,559,353 = 1.2%
    512,020 / 17,559,353 = 2.9%



    Data from
    http://enr.elections.ca/DownloadResults.aspx (at http://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e )
    and then manipulated/calculated.
    (That link no longer has the 2015 election results, but they might be available via archive.org or elsewhere)

  3. #33
    CGN Ultra frequent flyer rangebob's Avatar
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    October 2015
    Liberals 184 seats
    Conservative 99 seats
    NDP 44 seats
    -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_C...deral_election

    Today
    Liberals 177 seats
    Conservative 96 seats
    NDP 41 seats
    -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_...mons_of_Canada

    170 seats required for majority.
    Every vote for Bernier is a vote for another justin majority. Every vote for justin is a vote for handgun & semi-auto bans, and everything else the Coalition For Gun Control can dream up. Australia rules, ammo restrictions, inspections, then nothing.

  4. #34
    GunNutz BCreserveMP's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeroRooter View Post
    There are more important issues than gun rights, and the conservative party wouldn't be my first choice for any of those
    Same, except C-71 and Blair's promised gun grab are reason enough for me to hold my nose and vote blue this time (not that it matters - my riding will go NDP as it always does). The only other carrot the CPC can dangle in front of me is its stance on crime. The other parties fall far short of what I see as a reasonable response to criminal behaviour.
    "...'You know what truth is?' said Karabekian. 'It's some crazy thing my neighbor believes. If I want to make friends with him, I ask him what he believes. He tells me, and I say, "Yeah, yeah - ain't it the truth?"' - KV, BoC

    CF, CCFR, CSSA, NFA, JP, AF&AM

  5. #35
    CGN Ultra frequent flyer nowarningshot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shorerider View Post
    I know my riding in BC is in that list and I spoke with several people who were standing in line to vote when Trudumb was announce as prime minister so they walked away without voting. As someone else mentioned the lack of a conservative provincial government sways a lot of people to vote liberal both federally and provincially. Provincially the liberals are a way better choice than the alternatives.
    Provincially, Van der Zalm, and his wife were a political power couple. People got tired of them, resulting in a massacre. Eventually the Social Credit came back, but as "Liberals ". Politically right of anything locally comparable, except maybe the Alberta conservatives. Mostly, the same social credit insiders. This was about 85-88, so they morphed over the years, were just narrowly defeated to give us the green/ndp minority. We see the same identitarian policies as the federal lieberals now. Two years in, hopefully defeated, or fall in the next election.
    A free society must outlaw harming innocent people to function, but when we seek to curtail what all of us can do, rather than holding each of us responsible for what we actually do, we give up on freedom itself.

  6. #36
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    Persuade all the people you trust to vote out JT!!
    Make Trudeau a Drama Teacher Again

    Political correctness should never go beyond laws

  7. #37
    GunNutz schwyl's Avatar
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    Well as an Albertan Ill just do what I usually. Stay home and drink beer waiting for Ont and Que to dictate how the next 4 years of my life will be ran.

  8. #38
    Member doctor_meltdown's Avatar
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    chicoutimi - le-fjord is now held by conservative Richard Martel since the 2018 by-election. Thanks for the list. I'll vote there since it won't even be close in my home riding in BC.

  9. #39
    Business Member Rep Wolverine .303's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by schwyl View Post
    Well as an Albertan Ill just do what I usually. Stay home and drink beer waiting for Ont and Que to dictate how the next 4 years of my life will be ran.
    - .303
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  10. #40
    GunNutz schwyl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wolverine .303 View Post
    Like I said There is no point in voting. Ont and Que will dictate to me who will run my life for the next 4 years

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