The Battlegrounds of the 2019 Election

[C-7.62x51]

I just moved from a staunch Conservative riding (Chilliwack, BC) to Mission –Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, B.C., Liberal MP Jati Sidhu (2.3%). I've been chatting up every neighbor and person I see to get this clown ousted. Gonna donate to Brad Vis' Conservative campaign and see what else I can do.

C.

[rangebob]

A post of mine from Nov 2015

If just 40 seats across the country changed from liberal to cpc we'd have a strong cpc minority, and with a few more a majority.

I thought I'd give that a try and see what it worked out to.

district, conservative votes, liberal votes, ndp votes, winner, difference winner vs conservative
sorted by last column (difference winner vs conservative)

1) Edmonton Mill Woods, 60969, 61220, 18982, liberal, 251
2) Hastings--Lennox and Addington, 41319, 41917, 12565, liberal, 598
3) Calgary Centre, 55436, 57092, 6824, liberal, 1656
4) Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon, 31134, 33231, 18341, liberal, 2097
5) Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill, 46082, 48236, 5820, liberal, 2154
6) Edmonton Centre, 37425, 39825, 26189, liberal, 2400
7) York Centre, 37786, 40240, 6296, liberal, 2454
8) Kildonan--St. Paul, 34956, 37415, 12541, liberal, 2459
9) Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge, 32746, 35278, 30900, liberal, 2532
10) Nunavut, 2956, 5618, 3153, liberal, 2662
11) Newmarket--Aurora, 48116, 51021, 9612, liberal, 2905
12) King--Vaughan, 48340, 51846, 7142, liberal, 3506
13) Richmond Hill, 42550, 46064, 7900, liberal, 3514
14) Fundy Royal, 34722, 38276, 16411, liberal, 3554
15) Whitby, 54139, 57768, 13338, liberal, 3629
16) Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam, 36166, 39807, 30863, liberal, 3641
17) Northumberland--Peterborough South, 50330, 54101, 18823, liberal, 3771
18) New Brunswick Southwest, 29249, 33312, 9537, liberal, 4063
19) Kenora, 17511, 21816, 20799, liberal, 4305
20) Oakville North--Burlington, 51828, 56267, 8790, liberal, 4439
21) Vaughan--Woodbridge, 41393, 46172, 4396, liberal, 4779
22) Cambridge, 40912, 45712, 14652, liberal, 4800
23) Burlington, 59558, 64457, 12715, liberal, 4899
24) Kitchener South--Hespeler, 34963, 40304, 14972, liberal, 5341
25) Calgary Skyview, 35770, 41288, 7210, liberal, 5518
26) Steveston--Richmond East, 33260, 38972, 10496, liberal, 5712
27) St. Catharines, 42994, 49375, 18885, liberal, 6381
28) Niagara Centre, 32405, 38945, 34321, liberal, 6540
29) Tobique--Mactaquac, 28434, 35834, 8679, liberal, 7400
30) Québec, 23698, 31100, 29025, liberal, 7402
31) Mississauga--Lakeshore, 48920, 56474, 9573, liberal, 7554
32) Markham--Stouffville, 51128, 58833, 7338, liberal, 7705
33) Kelowna--Lake Country, 51014, 59228, 18083, liberal, 8214
34) Mississauga--Streetsville, 45142, 53382, 10071, liberal, 8240
35) Burnaby North--Seymour, 29170, 37680, 30762, liberal, 8510
36) Egmont, 12370, 21042, 8194, liberal, 8672
37) Oakville, 54984, 63923, 7660, liberal, 8939
38) Miramichi--Grand Lake, 25032, 34304, 11181, liberal, 9272
39) Eglinton--Lawrence, 45389, 54772, 6601, liberal, 9383
40) Louis-Hébert, 33464, 42869, 25633, liberal, 9405
41) Peterborough--Kawartha, 47082, 58250, 25150, liberal, 11168
42) Northwest Territories, 6896, 18338, 11628, liberal, 11442
43) Scarborough--Agincourt, 31611, 43184, 6526, liberal, 11573

if 235,439 liberal voters had switched to conservative in these districts (1..43), then the conservatives would have a minority.

This would be the minimum number of electoral district changed to get a minority government.

44) Cloverdale--Langley City, 37616, 49216, 16889, liberal, 11600
45) Mississauga--Erin Mills, 43398, 55038, 10412, liberal, 11640
46) Brampton Centre, 26690, 38554, 11886, liberal, 11864
47) Yukon, 9728, 21602, 7833, liberal, 11874
48) Sault Ste. Marie, 27230, 39222, 19086, liberal, 11992
49) Mount Royal, 36414, 48504, 7773, liberal, 12090
50) Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley, 36926, 49062, 5691, liberal, 12136
51) Don Valley North, 34556, 46988, 7782, liberal, 12432
52) Chicoutimi--Le Fjord, 14481, 27300, 26144, liberal, 12819
53) Vancouver South, 30223, 43548, 12486, liberal, 13325
54) Hamilton East--Stoney Creek, 25491, 39166, 32930, liberal, 13675
55) Pickering--Uxbridge, 44675, 58867, 10785, liberal, 14192
56) London West, 48070, 62339, 20168, liberal, 14269
57) Labrador, 3432, 17756, 3558, liberal, 14324
58) Brampton North, 31774, 46605, 15886, liberal, 14831
59) Willowdale, 34026, 48950, 6429, liberal, 14924
60) Kanata--Carleton, 49658, 64948, 8626, liberal, 15290
61) Brampton South, 31858, 47362, 9677, liberal, 15504
62) Saint John--Rothesay, 25752, 41256, 14897, liberal, 15504
63) Scarborough Centre, 29248, 45506, 10453, liberal, 16258
64) Scarborough North, 21475, 37807, 17295, liberal, 16332
65) Don Valley West, 38412, 54882, 6152, liberal, 16470
66) Fleetwood--Port Kells, 28548, 45712, 20924, liberal, 17164
67) Charlottetown, 6272, 23820, 9794, liberal, 17548
68) Delta, 36488, 54835, 16617, liberal, 18347
69) Bay of Quinte, 39663, 58647, 14082, liberal, 18984
70) Etobicoke Centre, 46145, 65324, 9772, liberal, 19179
71) Kitchener Centre, 31492, 50718, 17359, liberal, 19226

if 649,232 liberal voters had switched to conservative in these districts (1..71), then the conservatives would have a majority.

===================

Instead of just "liberal to cpc",
I tried "liberal or NDP, to cpc", and I got this

district, conservative votes, liberal votes, ndp votes, winner, difference winner vs conservative

1) Elmwood--Transcona, 29296, 25250, 29408, ndp, 112
2) Edmonton Mill Woods, 60969, 61220, 18982, liberal, 251
3) Regina--Lewvan, 33412, 26287, 33687, ndp, 275
4) Kootenay--Columbia, 46491, 24630, 47058, ndp, 567
5) Hastings--Lennox and Addington, 41319, 41917, 12565, liberal, 598
6) Calgary Centre, 55436, 57092, 6824, liberal, 1656
7) Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon, 31134, 33231, 18341, liberal, 2097
8) Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill, 46082, 48236, 5820, liberal, 2154
9) Edmonton Centre, 37425, 39825, 26189, liberal, 2400
10) York Centre, 37786, 40240, 6296, liberal, 2454
11) Kildonan--St. Paul, 34956, 37415, 12541, liberal, 2459
12) Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge, 32746, 35278, 30900, liberal, 2532
13) Nunavut, 2956, 5618, 3153, liberal, 2662
14) Newmarket--Aurora, 48116, 51021, 9612, liberal, 2905
15) King--Vaughan, 48340, 51846, 7142, liberal, 3506
16) Richmond Hill, 42550, 46064, 7900, liberal, 3514
17) Fundy Royal, 34722, 38276, 16411, liberal, 3554
18) Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River, 27325, 30696, 30919, ndp, 3594
19) Whitby, 54139, 57768, 13338, liberal, 3629
20) Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam, 36166, 39807, 30863, liberal, 3641
21) Northumberland--Peterborough South, 50330, 54101, 18823, liberal, 3771
22) New Brunswick Southwest, 29249, 33312, 9537, liberal, 4063
23) Kenora, 17511, 21816, 20799, liberal, 4305
24) Oakville North--Burlington, 51828, 56267, 8790, liberal, 4439
25) Vaughan--Woodbridge, 41393, 46172, 4396, liberal, 4779
26) Cambridge, 40912, 45712, 14652, liberal, 4800
27) Burlington, 59558, 64457, 12715, liberal, 4899
28) Saskatoon West, 24787, 18495, 29827, ndp, 5040
29) Kitchener South--Hespeler, 34963, 40304, 14972, liberal, 5341
30) Calgary Skyview, 35770, 41288, 7210, liberal, 5518
31) Steveston--Richmond East, 33260, 38972, 10496, liberal, 5712
32) St. Catharines, 42994, 49375, 18885, liberal, 6381
33) Niagara Centre, 32405, 38945, 34321, liberal, 6540
34) Port Moody--Coquitlam, 32529, 33776, 39408, ndp, 6879
35) Essex, 43197, 25277, 50145, ndp, 6948
36) Burnaby South, 24882, 31094, 32188, ndp, 7306
37) Tobique--Mactaquac, 28434, 35834, 8679, liberal, 7400
38) Québec, 23698, 31100, 29025, liberal, 7402
39) Mississauga--Lakeshore, 48920, 56474, 9573, liberal, 7554
40) Markham--Stouffville, 51128, 58833, 7338, liberal, 7705
41) Kelowna--Lake Country, 51014, 59228, 18083, liberal, 8214
42) Mississauga--Streetsville, 45142, 53382, 10071, liberal, 8240
43) Burnaby North--Seymour, 29170, 37680, 30762, liberal, 8510
44) Egmont, 12370, 21042, 8194, liberal, 8672
45) Oakville, 54984, 63923, 7660, liberal, 8939
46) Miramichi--Grand Lake, 25032, 34304, 11181, liberal, 9272
47) Eglinton--Lawrence, 45389, 54772, 6601, liberal, 9383

If these districts (1..47), 191,851 liberal voters had switched to conservative, and 30,721 ndp voters had switched to conservative, then the conservatives would have a minority government. That's a total of 222,572 votes.

This would be the minimum number of votes changed to get a minority government.


48) Louis-Hébert, 33464, 42869, 25633, liberal, 9405
49) South Okanagan--West Kootenay, 39765, 37459, 49646, ndp, 9881
50) Hamilton Mountain, 25977, 33864, 36192, ndp, 10215
51) Peterborough--Kawartha, 47082, 58250, 25150, liberal, 11168
52) Northwest Territories, 6896, 18338, 11628, liberal, 11442
53) Scarborough--Agincourt, 31611, 43184, 6526, liberal, 11573
54) Cloverdale--Langley City, 37616, 49216, 16889, liberal, 11600
55) London--Fanshawe, 29779, 34328, 41388, ndp, 11609
56) Mississauga--Erin Mills, 43398, 55038, 10412, liberal, 11640
57) Jonquière, 16249, 27370, 28078, ndp, 11829
58) Brampton Centre, 26690, 38554, 11886, liberal, 11864
59) Yukon, 9728, 21602, 7833, liberal, 11874
60) Sault Ste. Marie, 27230, 39222, 19086, liberal, 11992
61) Mount Royal, 36414, 48504, 7773, liberal, 12090
62) Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley, 36926, 49062, 5691, liberal, 12136
63) Don Valley North, 34556, 46988, 7782, liberal, 12432
64) Chicoutimi--Le Fjord, 14481, 27300, 26144, liberal, 12819
65) Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot, 18196, 29910, 31056, ndp, 12860
66) Drummond, 18442, 27586, 31666, ndp, 13224
67) Vancouver South, 30223, 43548, 12486, liberal, 13325
68) Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing, 19640, 28222, 33085, ndp, 13445
69) Nanaimo--Ladysmith, 32239, 32589, 45757, ndp, 13518
70) Hamilton East--Stoney Creek, 25491, 39166, 32930, liberal, 13675
71) Courtenay--Alberni, 39345, 30378, 53177, ndp, 13832

If these districts (1..71), 370,886 liberal voters had switched to conservative, and 141,134 ndp voters had switched to conservative, then the conservatives would have a majority government. That's a total of 512,020 votes.

17,559,353 voted out of 25,638,379 registered electors.
222,572 / 17,559,353 = 1.2%
512,020 / 17,559,353 = 2.9%



Data from
http://enr.elections.ca/DownloadResults.aspx (at http://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e )
and then manipulated/calculated.

(That link no longer has the 2015 election results, but they might be available via archive.org or elsewhere)

[rangebob]

October 2015
Liberals 184 seats
Conservative 99 seats
NDP 44 seats
-- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_C...deral_election

Today
Liberals 177 seats
Conservative 96 seats
NDP 41 seats
-- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_...mons_of_Canada

170 seats required for majority.

[BCreserveMP]

There are more important issues than gun rights, and the conservative party wouldn't be my first choice for any of those

Same, except C-71 and Blair's promised gun grab are reason enough for me to hold my nose and vote blue this time (not that it matters - my riding will go NDP as it always does). The only other carrot the CPC can dangle in front of me is its stance on crime. The other parties fall far short of what I see as a reasonable response to criminal behaviour.

[nowarningshot]

I know my riding in BC is in that list and I spoke with several people who were standing in line to vote when Trudumb was announce as prime minister so they walked away without voting. As someone else mentioned the lack of a conservative provincial government sways a lot of people to vote liberal both federally and provincially. Provincially the liberals are a way better choice than the alternatives.

Provincially, Van der Zalm, and his wife were a political power couple. People got tired of them, resulting in a massacre. Eventually the Social Credit came back, but as "Liberals ". Politically right of anything locally comparable, except maybe the Alberta conservatives. Mostly, the same social credit insiders. This was about 85-88, so they morphed over the years, were just narrowly defeated to give us the green/ndp minority. We see the same identitarian policies as the federal lieberals now. Two years in, hopefully defeated, or fall in the next election.

[tulazhen]

Persuade all the people you trust to vote out JT!!

[schwyl]

Well as an Albertan Ill just do what I usually. Stay home and drink beer waiting for Ont and Que to dictate how the next 4 years of my life will be ran.

[doctor_meltdown]

chicoutimi - le-fjord is now held by conservative Richard Martel since the 2018 by-election. Thanks for the list. I'll vote there since it won't even be close in my home riding in BC.

[Wolverine .303]

Well as an Albertan Ill just do what I usually. Stay home and drink beer waiting for Ont and Que to dictate how the next 4 years of my life will be ran.

[schwyl]

Like I said There is no point in voting. Ont and Que will dictate to me who will run my life for the next 4 years