The shear strength of the smaller screw does not even enter into the equation unless you, for some reason, lubricate your scope bases. It is the static friction between the base and the receiver which keeps the mount in place. The screw provides the compression force which causes the bases to stick. At the same torque value, the amount of compression provided by a 6-48 and an 8-40 is just the same. The only difference is that the larger screw should be able to handle more torque.
I have to say though, given the popularity of the big, heavy scopes in recent years, it might be time to re-vistit scope mounting. I think the one thing that really glares out at me in the original post is the intention to mount a heavy scope on the rifle. That being the case, why the lightweight mounts? Plainly, there is no need for the weight savings and it makes more sense, to me, to go for the strongest mount system. A one piece steel base with a precisely fitted recoil step bearing against the receiver ring and a dowel into the bridge should do it. Add the HD rings of your choice and there you have it.