Catch 22 or...............

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On my search for my new 20ga I saw a LOT of 410SXS's for sale. The problem is that 410 shells are cost prohibitive. I'm told that the reason for the high price is lack of demand but it seems to me that the lack of demand is due to the high price. I dunno.
 
the high price before was due to less overall volume. Now, 410 shells cost as much as 12ga (not good!) , 27$/box of steel shot winchester.
 
even if there was 1 .410 for every 1 .12g , the 12g for the most part is getting more use based on overal population.
more use = more shells sold.
a lot more sky blasting birds going on with a .12g and a heck of alot more claybirds are being shot with a .12g

.410 is pretty novelty , chicken hunts, rabbits, squirrels. i think even purist game bird hunters would prefer .20g
 
On my search for my new 20ga I saw a LOT of 410SXS's for sale. The problem is that 410 shells are cost prohibitive. I'm told that the reason for the high price is lack of demand but it seems to me that the lack of demand is due to the high price. I dunno.

Make your own from .303 Brit brass!

But seriously - the sub gauge thing is always overblown. In Europe they mostly do it all in 12 gauge. The velocity, shot size & weight of the cartridge and the choke is what matters, not so much the bore diameter.
 
even if there was 1 .410 for every 1 .12g , the 12g for the most part is getting more use based on overal population.
more use = more shells sold.
a lot more sky blasting birds going on with a .12g and a heck of alot more claybirds are being shot with a .12g

.410 is pretty novelty , chicken hunts, rabbits, squirrels. i think even purist game bird hunters would prefer .20g

I shoot an average of 3000 rounds of 410 at skeet every year, it lets you know if you are right on, better than the larger bores. For hunting, the 28 gauge is much ,more practical, and I use it for most of my upland hunting. I load for both, as I shoot around 3000 rounds of 28 at skeet as well. If you load, the 410 is actually the cheapest to shoot.
 
I believe BB that a lot of it is fathers uncles brothers buying .410 for beginner shooters because of recoil and plinking.Several times a year they show up at the trap club with .410 pump or single and "new" shooter and cannot fathom why they miss.Twice in the last year I have assisted new shooters buy using a 12 G with the 1100 fps. (low recoil before I ran out) and they wow hit some,really great when the 100lb. girlfriend hits 15 and the pissed off boyfriend hits 7.
 
I believe BB that a lot of it is fathers uncles brothers buying .410 for beginner shooters because of recoil and plinking.Several times a year they show up at the trap club with .410 pump or single and "new" shooter and cannot fathom why they miss.Twice in the last year I have assisted new shooters buy using a 12 G with the 1100 fps. (low recoil before I ran out) and they wow hit some,really great when the 100lb. girlfriend hits 15 and the pissed off boyfriend hits 7.
That is a good point. I WAS going to cut a Cooey single .410 down for the grandkids but decided that I would do like I did with my son and just load some light black powder loads for one of my old laminated barrel hammer SXS 12ga's. Might cut one of those down so I can start the grandkids earlier but the point of being able to hit is spot on. Early enthusiasm will wane if they aren't busting birds. I have an old Tryus thrower that I can use also to slow the birds down for the kids.
 
I load a 2" black powder 12ga load with 50gr by volume ffg 7/8oz load of shot. Gets me around 1050fps and there's like no recoil and it kills bunnies and crowd just fine
 
My thinking/opinion…

12ga shells get shot up in high volume, whether clay shooting for fun, competition or waterfowling. 12ga target ammo is almost a lost leader product, with the really good margins being in premium waterfowl ammo.

.410 ammo is consumed in much smaller quantities. Skeet competition is about dead, beat out by sporting clays - which is dominated by 12ga. So not many clay shooters are consuming .410 (and if they are, many are reloading). A box or two of .410 ammo sold to a grouse hunter is barely worth running a production line for… so the ammo manufacturers don’t run much .410 at all.

The problem lies in a dwindling supply of all ammo from the COVID debacle, which saw most folks buying ammo by the case instead of by the box, They couldn’t just buy a couple boxes as needed… and every time they did find it, the price was higher than last time. So, they’d buy a case because ammo has damn near become an investment. And if they couldn’t find that case when they wanted it, they’d buy three when it showed up again, so the ammo shortage became a self fulfilling prophecy. That broke the system entirely. With millions of rounds of 12ga coming off the line, that gap has started to close. But with a slow trickle of .410 being produced, the gap is either not closing, or widening.

No ammo on the shelf, or just a short supply at ridiculous pricing, means the guns that shoot that ammo will be in very low demand.
 
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My thinking/opinion…

12ga shells get shot up in high volume, whether clay shooting for fun, competition or waterfowling. 12ga target ammo is almost a lost leader product, with the really good margins being in premium waterfowl ammo.

.410 ammo is consumed in much smaller quantities. Skeet competition is about dead, beat out by sporting clays - which is dominated by 12ga. So not many clay shooters are consuming .410 (and if they are, many are reloading). A box or two of .410 ammo sold to a grouse hunter is barely worth running a production line for… so the ammo manufacturers don’t run much .410 at all.

The problem lies in a dwindling supply of all ammo from the COVID debacle, which saw most folks buying ammo by the case instead of by the box, They couldn’t just buy a couple boxes as needed… and every time they did find it, the price was higher than last time. So, they’d buy a case because ammo has damn near become an investment. And if they couldn’t find that case when they wanted it, they’d buy three when it showed up again, so the ammo shortage became a self fulfilling prophecy. That broke the system entirely. With millions of rounds of 12ga coming off the line, that gap has started to close. But with a slow trickle of .410 being produced, the gap is either not closing, or widening.

No ammo on the shelf, or just a short supply at ridiculous pricing, means the guns that shoot that ammo will be in very low demand.
This X2
 
I don't see the 410 gun craze slowly down as it's greatly increasing in popularity in the states with many manufactures making 410 guns for home defense self defense and hunting. There's never been more options for the 410 in history than now. Guns or ammo.
Used within its limits the 410 if very effective for small game and the new ammo is pushing its limits even further
 
Don't refute your thinking but I know very few that use .410 for anything now but skeet.Perhaps in some states where there are some issues with shooting lanes so you don't need to push the limits but I'm surprised anyone would think of a .410 for home defense ,I know I wouldn't but that is just me.
 
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