In all of my barrels, in every caliber of bottleneck rifle, the first shot in a cold clean barrel is always slower by about 30-50 fps. But, my normal cleaning routine is with Butche's Bore Shine, which is petroleum based. It likely acts as a lubricant, and reduces pressure and muzzle velocity similar to moly or hBN. It's going to depend a lot on your cleaning routine and the solvents and oils you use.
The CBS will group with the following shots at 100 or 200 yards. But, as Mystic points out, the farther you go out, the more that velocity difference has an effect. I always foul the bore with a hand full of shot the day before a competition, especially if that CBS will count for points.