multifactorial....
Well... there is quite the factors involved... Shot size, load, powder velocity, etc.
It's simpler with solid bullets since you can calculate the potential energy from the equation K = 1/2 MV(2) where the kinetic energy is equal to 1/2 of the mass (in grams) times the velocity squared. (That's why a .223 or 22-250 can pack such a wallop!)
Shotguns however are not solid (unless using slugs) so there are variables... but generally a 7 1/2 shot fired from a cylinder choke 12 guage 2 3/4 inch chell with a velocity of 1200 fps will reach about 60 yards distance at a 45 degree angle. However, their power of penetration falls off exponentially after 66% of that distance, such that the final velocity when the shot hits the ground is on the order of about 240 feet per second. (there are calculated tables on the web - will send references if you really need them)
That will still sting!
Now take a heavier shot - say 00 buck shot where you have 41 pellets in a 3 inch shell and you have an initial velocity of 1200 fps the kinetic energy (since the mass of each pellet is more that a 71/2 shot) will travel a little farther but the final velocity will be on the order of 600 fps, so it can penetrate skin! It wont, however, penetrate past the subdermal layer, and will not hit any vital organs, but can definitely put out an eye or two.
hope this starts you off...
Best
Dr.O