Milsurp price insanity

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Eaglelord17

CGN Ultra frequent flyer
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So I was participating in the auction that just passed this weekend and I have to say I am just shocked at some of the prices realized.

Worst case was this example here https://bid.switzersauction.com/RARE-EGYPTIAN-MODEL-RASHEED-CALIBER-7-62X39_i43683768 where unless I am missing something, this is a refinished Rasheed carbine which went for 4600$? Hoping this was more a case of auction fever than anything else.
 
I think it boils down to a few different things, in no particular order.

- Low supply.
- Steady, or slightly increasing demand (due to more collectors and people entering the hobby).
- Far fewer sources of collectibles, gun shows are mostly no longer running, etc.
- Higher prices state side push prices up here.
- Inflation.
- Covid, many people want cool toys to make them happy.

Also, quality is diminishing. It is getting more difficult to find higher quality items, and so when a nice collectible comes up, people are paying more than before.

Lastly, not many collectors in Canada use CGN, so most people do not have a website to buy, trade and sell. Their only options are the stores, auctions or word of mouth.
 
If you think that was insanity you are going to be out of words when you see that a good many of those items re-surface on GP - and sometimes here - with a significant markup still. I am starting to pay attention to auctions, it is a good way to cut the middleman and sometimes middleMEN.
 
I agree, not many high end collectors on CGN .I advertised a rifle for $2000.00, not one offer, put it in an auction and it went for $3500.00 plus fees and tax!
 
I saw one at the Calgary gun show a few years ago. I should have bought it. It was much less than $4,600 though. I still want one, but not at this price…
 
superbee said:
I agree, not many high end collectors on CGN .I advertised a rifle for $2000.00, not one offer, put it in an auction and it went for $3500.00 plus fees and tax!
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Well said.

When I was selling a fantastic near mint Rasheed on CGN a few years ago, I was asking $1250.

Nobody took it, and I ended up selling it elsewhere for more. There are not many true collectors on CGN anymore.
 
Let this pic speak for itself....

gA1CPfy.jpg
 
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For that reason I started to develop all the skills related to limited restoration process. Love the military rifles, but I won't pay that kind of price. So far no issues as I'm not a traditional collector. I have them to go out and shoot, enjoy the history behind them, learn about the details. Yes, it's my hobby, but I won't go bankrupt to have fun. It sure helps me to be creative both in searching for the next project and restoring these old rifles.
 
I think the bidder(s) were fooled by the condition. The gun was clearly sitting in a refinished stock, and the original finish didn't look authentic either. Wouldn't pay more than $800 for it.
Some decent deals on 1917s however.
 
It could well be a bubble. There really seems to be an influx of low info buyers, people who bought into the "hype" created by content creators on Youtube and reddit and some who also wanted to emulate their favourite video games. Also people with a cursory interest who are following a general trend. These buyers tend to not do research at all be it into the market, the technical specifics of a correct example or the actual history behind them. You could call them midwits, casuals, etc but their ignorance means the usual dealers, shysters and idiots who've been selling guns for years smelled blood when the mismatched crap they've dragged to shows for a decade or more starts selling for their insane asking price.

This second level, the low info dealer doesn't know what he's looking at with milsurp at all but now knows that people are buying it. This triggers an impulse to hoard and make a buck for himself. He will drive up auction prices and then price those items even higher. The cycle will continue until new cheap imports drop the bottom out of the market (unlikely), the estates of soon to be deceased collectors are dispersed and increase supply over levels of demand (also unlikely), or the new low info buyers move on to the next fad and demand drops to a bit above what it was before. Some of those new buyers are bound to get hooked like we were, realize their folly and get serious. This does not immediately fix the market however, those low info dealers will still "know what they've got" until their executors send it to auction.

I feel lucky to have gotten what I could while I could. I am reluctant to sell items to fund others now because I will never replace them for close to what I paid. Now is the time of knowing what you want, knowing what to look for and focusing on collecting avenues that haven't hit the mainstream. The number of actual collectors hasn't increased as much as one would think.
 
For people who like these toys, what other store of value is there? Fiat? No. Bitcoin? Now there’s your bubble
crazy times though.
 
ontheedgeman said:
For people who like these toys, what other store of value is there? Fiat? No. Bitcoin? Now there’s your bubble
crazy times though.
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If people really wanted to store value in milsurp, they'd be driving up the top condition all matching rare stuff that might have a snowballs chance of hell in holding it. Nobody with any market knowledge would store their buying power in junked Lee Enfields, buggered Mausers or anything else that should sell in a normalized market for less than a quarter they paid.
 
All of the people bidding on the above items would possess a valid PAL proving they are of sound mind and over the age of majority so they made their own decisions.
Noteworthy is some of the antiques like the US 1808 musket and the Tower Pattern 1839 which went rather reasonably.
 
Well I feel like a true collector ( not milsurp ) and am always
up - valuing , I like a bargain , tho I have stepped up lately
and over paid on some rifles .

Why ? not to increase market value , because I want them .

.. skwerl
 
HuskyDude said:
Let this pic speak for it's self....

gA1CPfy.jpg
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Well I blew it with the Cooey model 82 for sure. Bought mine Mail ordered and delivered over 50 years ago for $17 but, sadly, didn’t manage to keep hold of it. It would have been like money in the bank lol!
 
Geoman said:
Well I blew it with the Cooey model 82 for sure. Bought mine Mail ordered and delivered over 50 years ago for $17 but, sadly, didn’t manage to keep hold of it. It would have been like money in the bank lol!
Click to expand...

Bet yours was not drilled and tapped.
 
Ive seen this lately also, how could you be smart enough to google and find the firearms auction, register for an auction, and then pay 20% with buyers fees and taxes then bid up over used market prices? I've seen used wranglers go for 400 bucks and used gsg 15-22's going for 600. How about a Lee Enfield no4 t sniper for 14,000 ? Is it money laundering?
 
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