Polar Bear Numbers???

Brutus

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I have been interested in recent threads regarding this issue, as some of you may or may not know this.
I am curious to know from northern Alaskan/Canadian acrtic regions that I have never been to or know much about
( IE; Baffin island/ Hershel Island/Point Barrow/Nome/Farrow Point/Churchill/Ungava)
Are the polar bear numbers actually declining due to global warming?

Or are they "migrating" to better regions with high seal populations?
Are polar bear numbers safe/stable in the high acrtic?

There must be someone here involved with real wildlife management?

Thanks in advance for any and all informed responces.....
 
Global warming is a big lie. There are parts of the world which are currently experiencing localized short term warming. One of these is Canada.

The world is colder now than it was in 1940, and between 1968 and 1993 all of the world's glaciers were in a constant state of advance.

Studies of "Global Warming" especially those that "prove" that its happening tend to garner large research grants for the scientific community.
 
Rick Teal said:
Global warming is a big lie. There are parts of the world which are currently experiencing localized short term warming. One of these is Canada.

The world is colder now than it was in 1940, and between 1968 and 1993 all of the world's glaciers were in a constant state of advance.

Studies of "Global Warming" especially those that "prove" that its happening tend to garner large research grants for the scientific community.

I'm laughing hard here, really hard. I'm a geography major, BSc, and I haven't heard this much bullsh1t spewed in a long time... Global warming IS occurring, and at a rate so shocking we really don't understand it.

Entire cold habitat species forests in Alaska are dying over areas so vast you'd be stunned, and examinations of tree rings from the forest (the rings show growth patterns and stress, shown to acutely correlate with cool temperatures equal a good year and warmer a poor one) have shown an abrupt and sharp increase in stress and a slowing or entire halt of growth beginning in the middle of the last century.

As well the permafrost is melting, anyone who disagrees is an asshat, just look at all the troubles we are having in the North with pipelines and roadways, ice roads are open for an entire month less time than they were even in just 1990. We are even spending enormous sums to refrigerate ground in the North at pipeline footings and other structures, as it's turning into a bog. Pingos (ice cored hills) are collapsing at an unbelievable rate.

The worlds glaciers have sped their melting at an astonishing rate even in the last 10 years, for instance, Greenland's icecap, the largest in the Northern Hemisphere, has doubled its melt rate in the last decade, and is forecasted to double again over its present rate by 2010.

I've climbed peaks in the Andes to get a firsthand look at the last of our equatorial glaciers, and what is happening there is even more foreboding. I visited the area of the world's highest ski hill, and it hasn't opened in a couple seasons now, it went from snow 1000m below the base of the run to a complete recession and none at all from 1950 to today. All that's left is a chairlift over barren rock as its glacier disappeared, when only 10 years ago skiers still flocked there. The glacier of the 20,000ft peak I climbed has receded a mile in the last decade, and is forecasted to be gone entirely by mid century. To understand the volume of ice that is melting and how huge this is, an entire massive hydroelectric dam runs off the daily melt water alone, with no other water source (there is little to no precipitation, the ice is 20,000+ years old).

Now here's the biggest issue; snow and ice reflect sunlight, earth and rock absorb it. When the white reflective cover is finally removed to expose dark and moist earth, surface temperatures rise exponentially, and the atmosphere is heated by radiation from the surface of energy absorbed by the sun. There is no possible way we are not experiencing global warming, it is not something we can ignore or avoid. It is happening, and humans make it far worse.

Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing at rates hundreds of times faster than those in the past, this is a fact nobody debates as the measurements are taken by one of the largest emitters themselves, the US, at the Mona Loa atmospheric observatory. Another fact nobody debates is that greenhouse gases absorb light energy and diffuse it as heat. Nowhere again is this argument against global warming, and how is it justified? We KNOW that the concentration of gases we emit are increasing at a screaming rate, and we KNOW these gases absorb energy and diffuse it as heat, this is simply science and basic physics; we even rely on the processes of energy diffusion in industry with the very same gases, there's no doubt the process is occurring.

Your arguments that the earth is colder now than in 1940 hold little merit as well, as you are pointing to short-term climatic models as proof global warming is not occurring. Pro-industry and petroleum groups will often use statistics like the 1940 example you pulled up, and I recognize that very statistical choice as a tool of the industrial groups. You see, there's a problem with that stat, the Earth underwent short term warming from 1880 to 1940 (even centuries are considered short term), and the very fact the pinnacle of this heating cycle was chosen in your quote suggests you received this information from a source attempting to downplay the issue. You see, the problem is most people miss the scale of what is occurring, climatic patterns are not analyzed so much on a years, even decades scale when attempting to decipher what is occurring, geologists look at millennia, and larger time blocks. There are always short term (20-100 years) patterns of heating and cooling occurring, but the greater slope is UP. Just like a chronic gambler, if you graphed his results over years, there'd be spikes and gullies, but the overall trend over the decades is downhill when you zoom out in scale. the reson we know our current debacle isn't just a short term flux is that ice cores, ancient tree data, and the fossil record to name a few sources corroborate that the greenhouse gas levels are skyrocketing, and that we know these gases do warm the atmosphere when present, we can test that in a flask in a lab and see firsthand. THIS is why this rise is different, and far more concerning.

I've spent several years and global travels looking at this very issue, global warming, and I can tell you with absolute confidence that to say it is not occurring is dumbfounding ignorance without peer. However, to my amazement, as we see more and more hurricanes every year due to warmer waters, fish stock die offs from high temperatures, temperature records being set worldwide, and glaciers virtually evaporating, many people choose to ignore it. Why? Simple. It's bad for business. There's too much money in our current energy sector to let it slip away due to concerns about the earth for some, and they do an amazing job of propogating some really fantastically false arguments that the public will for some reason often accept. It's also bad for our conscience, and ow we enjoy living, people don't want to change. Even our own government has extensive plans in place regarding global warming; there's no debate there either, heck, we're already even having to deal with it.
 
good post 7, nice to see some facts from someone who knows first hand, i doo believe that we are in for major catastrope in the decades to come, and fear that it is too late for us as humans on this glorious green earth to change and that my friends is a very sad statement!!!
 
Ardent, you are so right about the opening of the north west passage. A few years ago few Canadians cared to pay attention when a Chinese
"research vessel" successfully cruised up off the coast of Tuk'. Right through the Bering Straits and across the north coastline of Alaska,and through the Beaufort Sea! It was only publicly exposed when the Major of Tuk' called up Ottawa and asked how this could of happened.
The north west passage was once thought to be fully iced up and therefore not a feasable shipping route for invasion of North America during the
Cold War.

Ardent, thank you for the informed and disturbing bits of information that you are personally priviledged to have observed!
 
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Ardent, excellent factual post...nice to see some info from somebody who isnt on Bush's petro payroll....

BTW..anybody got a boat? ;)
 
Between global warming (believe warming or not, the publicity is killing bear hunting in the north), lack of funds on my part, and the shrinking availability of places where a guy can hunt the white bear, I guess I'm pretty much screwed at going one on one with a polar bear.
Something I'd hoped I'd do someday.
 
I also get a chuckle every time I hear someone say global warming is caused by this or that....

Fact is, there is so much debate within the scientific community that one has to draw the conclusion that no one knows for sure what is causing it.

Humans contribute less than 1 % of the total greenhouse effect, the vast majority is from water vapor something we have no control over.

Humans contribute .3 % of the total CO2 in the earths atmosphere upon which the Kyoto Protocol is based.

Also, the little understood but undisputed effect of solar activity as a contributor to global warming is rarely mentioned.

If human activity is the reason for global warming then why was the hottest period in human history 4000- 7500 years ago when there was very little human industrial actitvity.

There has always been natural warming and cooling periods throughout history and no one knows for sure why, despite how convincing they may sound.

There is also evidence that we are coming out of a natural cooling cycle and back into a natural warming period. The last warming cycle known as the medieval warm cycle was similar to the temperatures we are seeing today, which is 1 degree warmer than 100 years ago.:rolleyes:

Also mentioned was the interest of big oil in denying global warming. Well there is just as much propoganda and self-serving interest coming from the other side:

"In the long run, the replacement of the precise and disciplined language of science by the misleading language of litigation and advocacy may be one of the more important sources of damage to society incurred in the current debate over global warming."

Dr. Richard S. Lindzen
(leading climate and atmospheric science expert- MIT)


"No matter if the science is all phony, there are collateral environmental benefits.... Climate change [provides] the greatest chance to bring about justice and equality in the world."

Christine Stewart, Minister of the Environment of Canada


"Scientists who want to attract attention to themselves, who want to attract great funding to themselves, have to (find a) way to scare the public . . . and this you can achieve only by making things bigger and more dangerous than they really are."

Petr Chylek
(Professor of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia)
Commenting on reports by other researchers that Greenland's glaciers are melting.


"Researchers pound the global-warming drum because they know there is politics and, therefore, money behind it. . . I've been critical of global warming and am persona non grata."

Dr. William Gray
(Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado and leading expert of hurricane prediction )
 
The Global Warming issue is damn depressing. There is no doubt it is happening, the only question is whether or not anything can stop the process (short of some cataclysmic event, like an asteroid slamming into earth).
 
liberty, I always appreciate a solid and well thought out counter argument. :)

I sadly just sank my 4x4 in a river this evening, had to get a 4x4 tow truck out, which got stuck in the river, had to get a 5 ton tow truck out to get it out, then had to use our tractor to exctricate the first tow truck, all this was occuring on my dime and I'm feeling too pissed to write a decent argument... :(

However I will say, the greenhouse gas emission figures referring to 'natural' releases often include CO and CO2 emissions from man made forest fires and clearing (such as the amazon, I travelled there in 2004 to witness it, devastating), and these figures are of course massive. While 'natural', they certainly aren't normal.
 
Many seem to think climate has been a constant, It changes, always has always will. Sure I'd like to see the sky cleaned of all pollution, though I doubt it would have much effect on climate. It has earned scientists a whack of money at taxpayer expense. Seems to me quite a few years ago when I went to school the "scientists" were forecasting the impending doom of the coming ice age meanwhile filling their pockets from taxpayer funded studies. I don't believe much of what the scientists say pro or con, their arguments change dependant on who is sponsoring their "research" Our climate is dependant on that old heater in the sky, the sun and their aint a damn thing we can do about it cause it aint a constant either. I'm just wondering what the next impending doom scenario they will come up with when the "greenhouse effect" scenario is worn out.
 
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Global warming is a fact.

The cause of this global warning is still under debate.

The earth over geological time has undergone great changes in average global temperatures.

CO2globaltemp.gif

Graph from Iowa State University website.

Good, unbiased, long term science is what our governments should use to set climate policy.

Biased science from environmentalist and industry lobby groups should be ignored. Unfortunately even government and university research is driven by attracting research funds and that is often best accomplished by promoting fear in the government and public mind.

Our government should be concerned with using the best, unbiased science possible so that their efforts and resources which are directed towards efficiently adjusting our society to the effects of global warming are not wasted or squandered.

Governments should not react in order to be perceived by the voters to be "doing something".

Stephen Harper should tell Al Gore and Bono to fuc* off. We'll listen to the scientists.
 
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geologist said:
Global warming is a fact.

The cause of this global warning is still under debate.

The earth over geological time has undergone great changes in average global temperatures.

CO2globaltemp.gif

Graph from Iowa State University website.

Good, unbiased, long term science is what our governments should use to set climate policy.
Biased science from environmentalist and industry lobby groups should be ignored. Unfortunately even government and university research is driven by attracting research funds and that is often best accomplished by promoting fear in the government and public mind.

Our government should be concerned with using the best, unbiased science possible so that their efforts and resources which are directed towards efficiently adjusting our society to the effects of global warming are not wasted or squandered.
Governments should not react in order to be perceived by the voters to be "doing something".

Stephen Harper should tell Al Gore and Bono to fuc* off. We'll listen to the scientists.

I agree with this!!

BTW Those tempture and co2 spikes look very consistent!!
 
Excellent post geologist.
Those charts are interesting and this is where the science of the whole thing gets amusing. At a glance charts like these lead one to a certain conclusion which contradicts other scientists findings:

Dr. Craig Idso of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, one of the nation's leading carbon dioxide research centers, examined records of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and air temperature over the last 250,000 years. There were three dramatic episodes of global warming that occurred at the end of the last three ice ages. Interestingly, temperatures started to rise during those warming periods well before the atmospheric carbon dioxide started to increase. In fact, the carbon dioxide levels did not begin to rise until 400 to 1,000 years after the planet began to warm. Concludes Dr. Idso, "Clearly, there is no way that these real-world observations can be construed to even hint at the possibility that a significant increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide will necessarily lead to any global warming."

Also that 2002 co2 spike looks like something from an Al Gore presentation.:D

The ppm in that year from the stats I've seen are around 375ppm but I may be wrong.
 
Don't get me wrong, in real peer review science, there's lots of venomous arguments and contradictions, but in the long run, over decades say, the reproducible, verifiable truth wins out and the erroneous conclusions fall by the wayside.

That is the scientific method.

It is not - having a celebrity from People magazine spout half truths, chosen to promote their favoured political agenda while disguising these lies as science.

These nitwits deserve a swift kick in the crotch.

The politicians that listen to these nitwits deserve a knee in the face.

And anyone brainless enough to read People magazine should lose the right to vote.
 
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I don't think there is much dought that Canada is warming, judging by the glaciers in the alberta rockies. I don't see how sending tens of billions of dollars to India and China will help fix it however. We are better off spending the money here on new tecknology for ourselves.
 
polar bears

Well up here`in Churchill I have seen 3 bears in 2 days, ice went out early , more bears on shore, they should be on the ice till late July. This is not a consistant, thing but does happen every so often.
take care
 
Ardent said:
I'm laughing hard here, really hard. I'm a geography major, BSc, and I haven't heard this much bullsh1t spewed in a long time... Global warming IS occurring, and at a rate so shocking we really don't understand it.

Entire cold habitat species forests in Alaska are dying over areas so vast you'd be stunned, and examinations of tree rings from the forest (the rings show growth patterns and stress, shown to acutely correlate with cool temperatures equal a good year and warmer a poor one) have shown an abrupt and sharp increase in stress and a slowing or entire halt of growth beginning in the middle of the last century.

As well the permafrost is melting, anyone who disagrees is an asshat, just look at all the troubles we are having in the North with pipelines and roadways, ice roads are open for an entire month less time than they were even in just 1990. We are even spending enormous sums to refrigerate ground in the North at pipeline footings and other structures, as it's turning into a bog. Pingos (ice cored hills) are collapsing at an unbelievable rate.

The worlds glaciers have sped their melting at an astonishing rate even in the last 10 years, for instance, Greenland's icecap, the largest in the Northern Hemisphere, has doubled its melt rate in the last decade, and is forecasted to double again over its present rate by 2010.

I've climbed peaks in the Andes to get a firsthand look at the last of our equatorial glaciers, and what is happening there is even more foreboding. I visited the area of the world's highest ski hill, and it hasn't opened in a couple seasons now, it went from snow 1000m below the base of the run to a complete recession and none at all from 1950 to today. All that's left is a chairlift over barren rock as its glacier disappeared, when only 10 years ago skiers still flocked there. The glacier of the 20,000ft peak I climbed has receded a mile in the last decade, and is forecasted to be gone entirely by mid century. To understand the volume of ice that is melting and how huge this is, an entire massive hydroelectric dam runs off the daily melt water alone, with no other water source (there is little to no precipitation, the ice is 20,000+ years old).

Now here's the biggest issue; snow and ice reflect sunlight, earth and rock absorb it. When the white reflective cover is finally removed to expose dark and moist earth, surface temperatures rise exponentially, and the atmosphere is heated by radiation from the surface of energy absorbed by the sun. There is no possible way we are not experiencing global warming, it is not something we can ignore or avoid. It is happening, and humans make it far worse.

Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing at rates hundreds of times faster than those in the past, this is a fact nobody debates as the measurements are taken by one of the largest emitters themselves, the US, at the Mona Loa atmospheric observatory. Another fact nobody debates is that greenhouse gases absorb light energy and diffuse it as heat. Nowhere again is this argument against global warming, and how is it justified? We KNOW that the concentration of gases we emit are increasing at a screaming rate, and we KNOW these gases absorb energy and diffuse it as heat, this is simply science and basic physics; we even rely on the processes of energy diffusion in industry with the very same gases, there's no doubt the process is occurring.

Your arguments that the earth is colder now than in 1940 hold little merit as well, as you are pointing to short-term climatic models as proof global warming is not occurring. Pro-industry and petroleum groups will often use statistics like the 1940 example you pulled up, and I recognize that very statistical choice as a tool of the industrial groups. You see, there's a problem with that stat, the Earth underwent short term warming from 1880 to 1940 (even centuries are considered short term), and the very fact the pinnacle of this heating cycle was chosen in your quote suggests you received this information from a source attempting to downplay the issue. You see, the problem is most people miss the scale of what is occurring, climatic patterns are not analyzed so much on a years, even decades scale when attempting to decipher what is occurring, geologists look at millennia, and larger time blocks. There are always short term (20-100 years) patterns of heating and cooling occurring, but the greater slope is UP. Just like a chronic gambler, if you graphed his results over years, there'd be spikes and gullies, but the overall trend over the decades is downhill when you zoom out in scale. the reson we know our current debacle isn't just a short term flux is that ice cores, ancient tree data, and the fossil record to name a few sources corroborate that the greenhouse gas levels are skyrocketing, and that we know these gases do warm the atmosphere when present, we can test that in a flask in a lab and see firsthand. THIS is why this rise is different, and far more concerning.

I've spent several years and global travels looking at this very issue, global warming, and I can tell you with absolute confidence that to say it is not occurring is dumbfounding ignorance without peer. However, to my amazement, as we see more and more hurricanes every year due to warmer waters, fish stock die offs from high temperatures, temperature records being set worldwide, and glaciers virtually evaporating, many people choose to ignore it. Why? Simple. It's bad for business. There's too much money in our current energy sector to let it slip away due to concerns about the earth for some, and they do an amazing job of propogating some really fantastically false arguments that the public will for some reason often accept. It's also bad for our conscience, and ow we enjoy living, people don't want to change. Even our own government has extensive plans in place regarding global warming; there's no debate there either, heck, we're already even having to deal with it.


I call bull####.

The earth has been heating up for hundreds of years, since the last ice age. (which, technically we are still in).

The 'human' part of global warming is so exponeitially small, that it doesnt even matter.

So, yes, the earth is warming.

Yet its natural.
 
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