Why milsurps are rising in value...

[vinver]

Copied from the BSA M20 forum, but relevant to any collector/restorer forum.. Thought provoking!

"I was talking to a friend the other day who has been looking for another engine for his old Ford. Acting on a 'tip off' he contacted a local Secondary School who, he was told, were disposing of an engine of the same type.
Sure enough, the Science Dept. were having a 'refit' and were disposing of exactly what he was after.. It had been used as a teaching aid to explain the principles and details of the internal combustion engine and it was being disposed of because the subject was deemed to be 'no longer relevant' in the 'post industrial' world the UK is supposedly now in.
At first I was amazed at that attitude but after a little thought I'm not so sure....
It appears the car (and motorcycle) have now joined a host of other everyday items such as televisions, light bulbs, washing machines, mobile phones etc. etc. that contain a level of technology that the average owner niether understands, is equipped to work with or, arguably, even cares about as long as it is available on demand....
In other words the knowledge required to produce or work on all these things has been passed entirely to a small group of designer/manufacturers or the dwindling number of people who carry out repairs...
Ford has itself been working on a 'sealed for life' disposable engine that is designed to last the lifetime of the vehicle without attention. It is also a fact that it is cheaper to manufacture an engine with all the economies of mass production than it is to overhaul one in a vehicle workshop.
To bring this round to our own particular hobby I would suggest we have lived at the end a 'golden age' of vehicle restoration. By that I mean the vehicles we work on were not produced at a time when the gap between the average persons knowledge and the level of technology applied was too big to be 'bridged', they didn't employ extensive use of materials, such as plastics, that are very hard to refurbish or remanufacture or a level of electronic design that is way beyond the average persons understanding...
Modern vehicles have all these things and more and it appears even the basic principles involved are no longer being taught. I would suggest therefore, they will never be restored...
To take an example, my friends new Triumph has 2 computers, cruise control, ABS brakes, Traction control, Rider 'mode'settings, 'fly by wire throttle', a catalytic converter,fuel injection, more sensors than you can throw a stick at and acres of plastic mouldings, radiators etc etc...Just where would you start if you found that in a barn 20 years from now?...Is it the end of vehicle restoration?...Ian "

 

[cyclone]

Wait until you see the rise in price for pre-1898 milsurps....

 

[Steve1987]

I know I am beating a dead horse, but it's all about supply and demand.

I was reading on U.S. forums right now some people believe WWII milsurps are dropping in value at the moment, everyone is focused on buying things like AR15's and normal capacity magazines.

It's also hard to say what the next generations will choose to collect, and if prices might hit a ceiling.

Also, what if future laws grandfather all handguns, then the value of milsurps pistols like the 1911 will drop just like with Lugers and other 12.6 in Canada.

-Steve

 

[desporterizer]

I agree with the writer's opinion on vehicles in general & cars in particular. Cars are somewhat disposable now & will be more so in the near future. As an enthusiast & professional mechanic, this does not bode well for me as I am going the way of the blacksmith. How does this apply to milsurps?

 

[bogusiii]

Milsurp prices are rising because that's what people are willing to pay. It's also because it's dawned on a bunch of us that there is not always a steady supply of these out there like there used to be.

 

[CanadianAR]

I agree with the writer's opinion on vehicles in general & cars in particular. Cars are somewhat disposable now & will be more so in the near future. As an enthusiast & professional mechanic, this does not bode well for me as I am going the way of the blacksmith. How does this apply to milsurps?

Im a mechanic too, but for large diesel, dont worry we areant going ANYWHERE, Ive seen so god damn many "maintenance free", "sealed for life" and parts that should last the life of the vehicle go bad that it isnt even funny. The more they try, it seems the more they fail.

 

[desporterizer]

Im a mechanic too, but for large diesel, dont worry we areant going ANYWHERE, Ive seen so god damn many "maintenance free", "sealed for life" and parts that should last the life of the vehicle go bad that it isnt even funny. The more they try, it seems the more they fail.

They might have reached that point in heavy duty but they are there with cars. First tune up 192k, oil changes 16k, larger brakes that don't wear out till 80k etc, etc.

 

[fiddler]

Sometimes the prices go up because of the dollar value and exchange. That, and the fact that it is surplus and the availability can change. Besides, to say that milsurps are going up is a pretty broad and general statement. It also depends what firearm you're looking at? I can look at Internationals catalog from 1993 where an SKS 56, mosin sniper almost the same as todays prices, and M44 and 8mm ammunition were higher price than last year. What took me two days pay to buy a SKS rifle 20 years ago ,now can do it before coffee break on a slow Monday.

 

[DJdeadlyDALEK]

They might have reached that point in heavy duty but they are there with cars. First tune up 192k, oil changes 16k, larger brakes that don't wear out till 80k etc, etc.

I haven't changed my factory brakes and I'm at 137000 km now

 

[cyclone]

I know I am beating a dead horse, but it's all about supply and demand.

I was reading on U.S. forums right now some people believe WWII milsurps are dropping in value at the moment, everyone is focused on buying things like AR15's and normal capacity magazines.

It's also hard to say what the next generations will choose to collect, and if prices might hit a ceiling.

Also, what if future laws grandfather all handguns, then the value of milsurps pistols like the 1911 will drop just like with Lugers and other 12.6 in Canada.

-Steve

Won't help those looking to buy a Garand.........

 

[Light Infantry]

I know I am beating a dead horse, but it's all about supply and demand.

I was reading on U.S. forums right now some people believe WWII milsurps are dropping in value at the moment, everyone is focused on buying things like AR15's and normal capacity magazines.

It's also hard to say what the next generations will choose to collect, and if prices might hit a ceiling.

Also, what if future laws grandfather all handguns, then the value of milsurps pistols like the 1911 will drop just like with Lugers and other 12.6 in Canada.

-Steve

Quite honestly, I think that will be a very short lived trend (if even true). The whole "gun" issue has changed drastically since Sandy Hook. Most people have a limited disposable income. If the choice is between an "old" milsurp, that they can buy now or a year from now, vs an "assault" rifle that they fear can be banned outright, well, the money will go to the latter choice. Once all the stupidity settles out (we hope) in the Excited States of America, people will go back to buying what they WANT vs what they think they NEED.

 

[points]

I've been wondering where the demand for milsurps will go. When I go to the range these days, I mostly see black rifles. They all look pretty much the same and they mostly look like ARs. In a line of 20 shooters some days I am the only one that doesn't have one of these. Most young people I run across have very little interest in older designs. So I wonder if the price trend will peak as the next generation moves on. I hope not.

 

[Winchester30-30]

its supply and demand look at the prices of the ross rifles today, there crazy!

 

[tommyinbc]

I know I am beating a dead horse, but it's all about supply and demand.

I was reading on U.S. forums right now some people believe WWII milsurps are dropping in value at the moment, everyone is focused on buying things like AR15's and normal capacity magazines.

It's also hard to say what the next generations will choose to collect, and if prices might hit a ceiling.

Also, what if future laws grandfather all handguns, then the value of milsurps pistols like the 1911 will drop just like with Lugers and other 12.6 in Canada.

-Steve

Went down to a Gun Show in Lynden (Washington State) today and took a look at a load of various milsurps for sale...Nearly each and every one of them was priced fairly high.. Well used (nothing appealing or with matching numbers)Lee Enfields (full wood) going for $500/600..Two K98's (matching numbers) for $1500 each. Swedish Mausers (reasonable condition but nothing special) for $ 500 each....Couple of 'okay' Garands going for $1200...and on it went...Obviously room to negotiate with vendors, but it didn't appear they were struggling to get near their price (from what I could see and hear)
First time at this show and I was generally surprised at the prices being asked...Definately no bargains..

 

[vinver]

I agree with the writer's opinion on vehicles in general & cars in particular. Cars are somewhat disposable now & will be more so in the near future. As an enthusiast & professional mechanic, this does not bode well for me as I am going the way of the blacksmith. How does this apply to milsurps?

OK, so my title was poorly worded- What I was thinking should have been "Why old stuff will always hold it's value" since it comes from a generation where generally the things used in everyday life were made to be repairable, renovated and continued in service. Not used until it breaks or wears out, then thrown away. We live in a throw away society now, wood and metal can be repaired, plastic generally not.

 

[purple]

There is a finite limit to what is out there. No military rifles in production today will ever become commercially available, so we are limited to what is still in circulation. In short they are not making them anymore, so value becomes a function of supply vs demand.

 

[haha49]

heres the thing about cars they make an engine. They make a car body they change it every other year. They then have to stock parts for years and years because someone somewhere will need it. They make parts and just stick them in warehouse to store for when someone will order it and need it because they know sooner or latter someone is going to need a certian part so companys still sell parts for old cars back to the 80's because they're still on the road and need parts sooner or latter.

If a car is say a brushless moter ie eletric it requires very little maintness which is almost nothing. Simple reason its a coil and a magnet. The battreys on the other hand don't last as long so they need to be replaced after a certian amount of years and they have a high cost to replace but the moter it self is almost nothing to make and very easy to work on because there is very little to go wrong.

 

[desporterizer]

heres the thing about cars they make an engine. They make a car body they change it every other year. They then have to stock parts for years and years because someone somewhere will need it. They make parts and just stick them in warehouse to store for when someone will order it and need it because they know sooner or latter someone is going to need a certian part so companys still sell parts for old cars back to the 80's because they're still on the road and need parts sooner or latter.

If a car is say a brushless moter ie eletric it requires very little maintness which is almost nothing. Simple reason its a coil and a magnet. The battreys on the other hand don't last as long so they need to be replaced after a certian amount of years and they have a high cost to replace but the moter it self is almost nothing to make and very easy to work on because there is very little to go wrong.

Think Lion or carbon nanotube batteries in combination with hydrogen fuel cell & a body/chassis life of twenty years or more & you will be looking at the future of personal transportation.

 

[paintgunner]

Apparently the M91/30 I just sold! Asked for what I paid and someone said they would have paid $70 more!

 

[bearhunter]

There is a finite limit to what is out there. No military rifles in production today will ever become commercially available, so we are limited to what is still in circulation. In short they are not making them anymore, so value becomes a function of supply vs demand.

Purple is right about that one. When the WW II and later stuff to the mid sixties is gone, there won't be any more out there available on a commercial basis. Even those will be destroyed if the UN gets its way.

Recently, John from Marstar commented on a few thousand Greek Mannlichers that he watched being destryoyed, along with their accessories. The big issue is that they were new in the crates, all the way to the smelter.

The same thing is going to happen all over the world. The only way to stop it, is to raise the price of said rifles until it is more profitable to sell them on the commercial surplus markets than to send them to the smelter. As John commented, for a few thousand rifles, it was cheaper to destroy them than go through the paper hurdles of market disposal.

The thousands upon thousands of M1 Garands dumped all over the world are another good example of this. The markets are very limited for those rifles and the fact that the US won't let them back into the US, makes destroying the old war stocks cheaper than selling them off.

Other than the odd stray lot, this stuff, except for the ComBloc stuff is drying up quickly. Not a whole lot longer for much of it either. I can remember the heady days of new in grease No4s and No1s by the palletfull for $5 each. 720 round sealed crates of ammo for them for $5 as well. That was very similar in price, back in the day as the SKS or 91/30 ammo/rifle packages you see today.

It lasted for around 10 years. Mind you, we had about half the population we have now. When it dried up, it took another 10years for the people that bought them to "sporterize" either got around to doing so or just hid them away in their closets. Mainly because manufacturers like Winchester, Remington, Savage and some European makers were able to produce a very decent sporting rifle for the markets, cheaper than most people could transform a milsurp for.

The price of milsurps at this point reflects what is happening on the world scene. The rifles are drying up or being destroyed. There was a recent story on Gunboards about someone visiting a shop in South Africa and witnessed a bunch of laborers in the back yard of the shop, torching Long Lees by the hundreds. These had been government war stores and ordered for destruction, rather than for resale on the surplus market. The joys of a frightened/jealous socialist government.

Take some advice and buy them while you can. If you can afford a crate of SKS or 91/30 rifles and a pallet of ammo for both, do it. If you are in your mid twenties or early thirties, it will either pay for your kids education or pay off your mortgage so you can retire in about 25 - 30 years.

If you think I'm kidding, US Property 1911 pistols used to sell for $20 new in grease. Ammo for them was 1 cent a round in 1965. The pistols came in 10 pistol crates and the ammo came in green spam cans of 450 rounds, two to a crate. M1 Carbine ammo was the same, 1 cent per round. M1 Carbines and M1 Garands were always very popular and commanded considerably higher prices than bolt actions or even German or other semi autos.

A few years back, I was very surprised when a pallet of surplus LCA M2 I had on hand, sold off for $400/thousand and the buyers never batted an eyelash. It was all nice clean, hermitically sealed stuff though and made in the late sixties, so non corrosive. I wish I had kept a couple of crates for myself. Greed is blessed with hindsight.