Some Stats - Gross sales of Hunting Rifles and Shotguns - a snapshot

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galamb

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I control the inventory for firearms sales where I work. Since I like to play with numbers I have done up our year end sales and put together some statistics. A couple of notes to be considered. We only sell non-restricted firearms and do not carry Milsurp's of any description. Our target market is primarily Duck, Deer and Varmint/Pest hunters. I looked at total sales (in number of units) by Brand/Mfg, then broke it down into Center Fire Rifles (bolt, semi, pump, lever combined), Shotguns (semi, pump, single combined), Rimfires (again, all action types) and Muzzle Loaders. For "math geeks" I truncated the numbers so they may not add up to exactly 100%. So for those who often have questions about "who buys what", here is some (pretty raw) data covering to total unit sales from my little piece of Eastern Ontario.


Top Selling Brands by % of total unit sales:


Savage - 19.8%


Mossberg - 14.4%


Remington - 13.5%


Traditions - 13.5%


Henry - 11.7%


Weatherby - 9.9%


Ruger - 8.1%


Browning - 3.6%


Marlin - 1.8%


Winchester - 1.8%


Rossi - 0.9%


Thompson Center - 0.9%




Center Fire rifles accounted for 33.3% of "all gun sales" (measured in number of units, not dollars), followed by Shotguns @ 28.8%, then Rimfires @ 24.3% and finally Muzzle loaders @ 13.5%


In CF Rifle sales Savage remained on top with 35.1% of all rifle sales. Rounding out the top three spots were Mossberg and Remington tied @ 13.5% and finally Weatherby @ 10.8%. Of note NOT A SINGLE Rem 700 was sold all year. My experierce was when a guy/gal handled the Rem 783 (at about 400 bucks) and then the 700 SPS (at about 800 bucks) they just didn't see 400 bucks MORE rifle to justify the step up. The Savage Axis was still "king of the pile" accounting for 29.7% of all CF rifles that went out the door. (my "main market" can probably be described as "price concious"). To put it another way, 1 in 3 of everyone who came to the gun counter came for a CF Rifle and 1 in 3 who bought something left with an Axis.


In the Shotgun Market (28.8% of all gun sales) Mossberg just edged out Remington by 34.3% to 31.2% (again total unit sales) with variations of the Model 500 a little ahead of variations of the Model 870's (the two best sellers). Solidly in third was Weatherby with 21.9% of all shotgun sales. Browning and Winchester shotguns accounted for just under 1% of shotgun sales in comparison. To be fair, we sold out of 870 Wingmaster's very early in 2015 and could not source them from anywhere regardless of what you were willing to pay. That may have hurt Reminton's year end shotgun numbers in my (numbers).


Rimfires accounted for 24.3% of all unit sales. Henry came in top of the pile accounting for 37.0% of all rimfire rifle sales. Ruger (various 10/22 configurations) tied with Savage @ 29.6% each, locking up the 2nd place tie for total rimfires out the door.


I believe, due primarily to the poor rifle season for deer in my area, our Muzzle loader (and crossbow) sales were very "heavy" this year. Muzzle loaders, all Traditions models, accounted for 13.5% of all firearms sales in 2015 - we couldn't keep these on the shelf in the weeks leading up to the December Muzzleloading season in Ontario. Despite carrying CVA, Knight and Thompson Center models as well, the "market" was for the "cheapest" model on the shelf which leads me to believe there will be a rather healthy "used market" before too long - these were most probably "hail Mary" purchases not bought by serious "front stuff hunters".


So the AVERAGE GUY who bought a CF Rifle, Shotgun and Rimfire in 2015 from me walked out the door with a Savage Axis (308 or 30.06 most often), a 12 ga 500/535 Mossberg and a 22lr Henry Lever Action. And if he/she came back for a Black Powder gun, they picked up a Traditions Buckstalker in 50 cal.


That's what they were buying "from me" in 2015.
 
Some perspective - total guns sold for 2015 was 426 (so maybe the sales on a good weekend at a place like EPPS - perspective). All firearms, ammo, hunting accessories (calls, scents, hunting clothes etc) only account for 2.2% of gross store sales (total dollars), so it's more of a value added service than our bread and butter that's paying the rent.

A few more (very raw) numbers. Our best selling rifle models were:

Savage Axis (as stated - 44 rifles total) followed by (in order of gross units):

Rem 783

Mossberg ATR's (old stock) and Patriot's (new stock for 2015) - but pretty much the same rifle just renamed
(personal opinion, these outsold the Ruger American which didn't make the top 5, because while at the same price point, the Mossberg has a fluted barrel and bolt - just "looks" like the better option for the money)

Weatherby Vanguard II and,

Savage Model 11/111's to round out the top 5.

In the higher end/next step up (guys/gals moving up to better guns - replacing stuff they have been shooting for a while), Browning X-Bolts and Winchester Model 70 Featherweights are what they went to. Tikka and Howa accounted for "no sales" at all.

I don't have the numbers "yet" by caliber, but just off the top of my head, the magnum calibers (7RM, the WSM's, and 300's) were not "popular" this year. Although I clearly remember selling a guy a 300 Weatherby Mag. His sole purpose for buying it was because his son had just bought a 300 WM and he wanted "a more powerful gun than his son had". :)

The popular shotguns (500/870) and Rimfires (Henry 001, Ruger 10/22, and Savage (mostly) Mod 64's) are pretty much detailed in my initial post.

So again, just a snapshot from a (small) gun seller in Eastern Ontario where Deer/Ducks is almost at religion status with those who hunt here.
 
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Sounds like you have a solid market at the low to mid qualify price point.
I wonder is this is due to the low job market and the falling cdn $
 
Yes, job market and the buck is probably the greatest factor.

For 2016 I expect some of the results to change significantly.

For example, Henry put their prices up a bit for 2016 and with the dollar trading barely above 72 cents US, I am bringing in exactly ZERO Henry's to replace what was sold in 2015. It's just not viable for me to pay a wholesale price of, in some cases, 150 bucks more for a rifle that what it's selling on the shelf for today.

We sold quite a few GoldenBoy 22's with the pricetag near the 600 buck mark, but if I have to put them on the shelf at somewhat north of $725 in 2016, they may not move so well. And I'm glad I have "last years" 700 SPS's left, because if I had to tag a 2016 SPS Stainless model with a pricetag a little over a grand that send me into "negative sales" on that model :)
 
No CVA center fire stuff - and a quick look of my CVA wholesaler shows they don't even list them - they only import the black powder stuff.

Not uncommon - what "sucks" being in Canada is that many of the wholesalers don't bother even trying to get half the stuff you see on the US Mfg websites. In other cases if you don't order it all up front (usually in December for the following year) you have zero chance of getting it. Because we don't have the luxury of dealing directly with the Mfg we are essentially buying from another buyer who doesn't want to "get stuck" with stock that won't move so they basically order what the shops "pre-order" with maybe an extra few thrown in.

And particularly when the dollar is reaching "new lows", not seen in over 10 years, almost every other day, they really don't want to import stuff just in case the dollar rebounds a bit and they are stuck with product that is now worth 10 or 15% less that they still have to try and sell at the inflated rate.

Sometimes it "sucks to be Canadian" :)
 
galamb said:
Top Selling Brands by % of total unit sales:
Click to expand...


Interesting to see Savage so high on the list, especially since they are not really (in my perception?) a big player in the shotgun market.

I can't believe nobody bought a 700. It's been the gold standard for almost forever. I'm super curious now what gun shop you work at! I go to a lot of shops and I find different stores really "sell" some brands more than others, and it varies from shop to shop.
 
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Thank you, this is interesting.

No surprise to me the budget rifles are the big sellers. I don't think it's just bad Cdn. dollar and weak job market. I think a huge percentage of hunters just want a cheap rifle, and that's exactly why all the players are putting them out.

The way our dollar is now those budget rifles loose a lot of appeal at the prices they will be coming in at.
 
No surprise to me that attention has turned to Savage away from Remington. Savage makes economy rifles, but they shoot well and the metal is reasonably finished. They make no apologies nor excuses - you know exactly what you're going to get, and it's usually at a pretty fair price point. Remington however, has been on a downward course for a long time as evidenced by Marlin's fall from grace with the Remington takeover, the 'matte' SPS finish and their Express 870 line. I like their firearms in concept, but in practice, my SPS Varmint has not been without problems - the SPS-finished-bolt ground enough brass off the cartridges while working them through the action that they would start to build up in the chamber/bolt face. I could not use just any oil to wipe down my 870 Express, as I found it orange on a couple of occassions - G96 seems to have corrected that, but it's still a corrosion-friendly finish. Anyone who's been around since 2008 is familiar with the horror stories surrounding the Marlin takeover. There is no way i'd spend more than $700 on an SPS, and it looks like a lot of people feel the same. I would probably prefer a high-end Remington over a high-end Savage though, if I were in the market for one.
 
Since I have published some specific numbers etc in this thread I am prevented from specifically stating "what store" I am talking about. I am observing that for a couple of reasons.

First, it is not a contributor or supporter of this forum so it wouldn't be proper to "advertise".

Second, it's a corporate (mandate) that I not advertise or promote my specific location over others in the chain, unless all stores (in my geographic group) agree and cooperatively contribute to the promotion. This is done so that one location can't undermine the sales of another location within a given area.

Now some may be aware of where I work, but for the above reasons I will not disclose that in this particular post.
 
galamb said:
Second, it's a corporate (mandate) that I not advertise or promote my specific location over others in the chain, unless all stores (in my geographic group) agree and cooperatively contribute to the promotion. This is done so that one location can't undermine the sales of another location within a given area.
Click to expand...

LOL - if I had to bet the mortgage, after reading this, I would bet on a LeBaron location all day long :)
 
Claven2 said:
Interesting to see Savage so high on the list, especially since they are not really (in my perception?) a big player in the shotgun market.

I can't believe nobody bought a 700. It's been the gold standard for almost forever. I'm super curious now what gun shop you work at! I go to a lot of shops and I find different stores really "sell" some brands more than others, and it varies from shop to shop.
Click to expand...

I grew up on the 700...... still like them, but in a higher end rifle, I have swapped mine out for rugers as I personally feel the feed systemand action is much better.....

as for brand, well, remington has failed epically in the bargain market.... and, if you want a mid range Remington 700, you are stuck with the sps finish, and, to be honest, it is sub par and rusts easily......

We live in the age of the internet... and we get to easily read experiences and ratings at the touch of a mouse button..... And so does the new rifle user, and lets face it, the axxis gets the most good reviews in the budget category.....

Unfortunately, anyone can leave a review and they are all considered equal.... whether the reviewer just bought his first rifle or has been shooting for years....

The truly sad truth is that I fear this will push the cost of low production "higher end" rifles up to keep the cheapies low.....
 
I am a little dismayed at the tendency of the average consumer to purchase the absolute cheapest item possible regardless of quality. A throw away mentality. The overall quality of " average" North American firearms has been going steadily down hill, led by American tastes and buying patterns. I did not realize that Canada had followed suit so completely. I won't consider buying most new American made firearms any more, certainly not a Remington, Marlin, or Savage. But that's why some small American shops and Western Europe makes higher quailty ( and more expensive) stuff for people like me.
 
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