For the Browning BPR ammo with High 1465 and Low 1405 MVs, I get about 2.2" of vertical at 200 yards in a ballistic calculator. Ammo less than 1100 fps MV will be more like 6-7 inches of vertical for that 60 fps ES. Figure roughly an inch per 10 fps velocity variation for SV ammo.
Sure, a large sample size will give more accurate ES numbers, but I typically see that in a box of 50 rounds, it is only a couple of outliers that bump up the ES. The bell-curve generated from the Standard Deviation value would be a better descriptor of where the majority of the rounds will fall vertically. It would of course be preferable to couple low SD with low ES so that those few outliers don't stray too far off the mark.
Curious... "I get about 2.2" of vertical at 200 yards in a ballistic calculator".??? What BC and zero distance did you use? I used 100 Yard zero and 0.11 G1 BC
In my rifle I had a low of 1392 and a high of 1453 with BPRs... my buddy got over 1500 FPS with his Sako Quad.
At 200 to 300 yards the 3 of us shooting yesterday preferred the Browning BPR ammo in the switchy conditions of yesterday... probably for the reason you pointed out.
I agree SD is better, but ES is quick to determine without calculations... so certainly my laziness is to blame... For good ones... good was good... for the bad ones... it was not just one single round that made the data look skewed... the bad ones were clearly more random in general.
I think in a PRS match we'd need to make the call depending on the weather of the day before deciding to go with sub sonic or super sonic ammo. In mild conditions I would clearly favor low ES low velocity ammo, but if the wind gets dicey, I think the high velocity stuff will out perform.
There are other less tangible advantages of the high velocity ammo... It shoots about 5 MOA flatter at 100 yards, and once you zero the scope for that, you get an extra 5 MOA of scope travel for the long shots. Couple that with less need for travel at 300, since the 1435 FPS stuff is about 10 minutes flatter than the 1075 FPS ammo at 300 yards.
I didn't have the 41 MOA needed for 300 yards with 1.75 FPS and I had to dial up 30 MOA and hold high by another 10... that can get confusing in a match and that's how mistakes get made.
With the 1435 FPS ammo I could dial all the way to 300 yards with my scope, but at the travel limit there is no windage available.
The scope I'm running on a 20 MOA rail is the 6-24 Vortex Diamondback Tactical and that model only has 65 MOA travel... In retrospect the 4-16 would have been a better choice because it has 85 MOA travel... and that extra 10 MOA per side would just about make it to 300 yards even with 1075 FPS ammo. At the very least there would be windage travel available for 300 yards with 1435 FPS ammo.