BC LEH draw has been done and the results are out.

45ACPKING said:
resorting to name calling to get your point across just makes you come off as a tool

nobody cares..... I don't see anyone in this thread crying the blues , ranting and foaming at the mouth that they didn't get drawn LOL
Just you and Gub making comments that attack others in your little internet quest to defend the LEH system …….. maybe grow up some.
Click to expand...
Must be a typo on your end..I don't see me defending the LEH system..
 
1899 said:
Actually, you are incorrect. If the draw is truly fair then your chance of being drawn in any given year is whatever the odds are. However, over time the probability of being drawn, or not drawn does change. Think of flipping a coin as a very basic example. Each time you flip a coin there is a 50% chance of it being heads. However, what is the probability of landing on heads two times in a row? How about five times in a row?

1/2 (50%) chance of heads.
1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4. So there is a 25% chance of landing on heads 2x in a row.
1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/32. There is a 3% chance of landing on heads 5 times in a row.

The larger the number of coin flips the closer you get to 50% heads.

Let's say there is a 10:1 odds moose hunt. Four people put in for a group hunt. The chance for EACH person to NOT be drawn is 90%. The probability that NONE of them will be drawn is 65.6%
Assume that the odds stay the same for the next 4 years. The probability that they will NOT get a draw for 4 years in a row is 18.5%
Click to expand...

My point is:

Person A has been applying for 30 years and never won, and person B is applying for the first time this year.

Regardless of odds, they have the exact same chances of winning.

Therefore, person A's previous failure to win has no bearing whatsoever on his/her odds of winning this year (or any other year). The two people have mathematically identical odds of winning the present draw.

The odds are reset again next year. It is equally likely that person A will get his/her first win as it is that person B will get his/her second win in a row over his/her first two draws.
 
Last edited:
Looks like I am going to be elk hunting from my snowmobile this January

Even better. I got a sheep draw. Same one I got 5 yrs ago. But got nast sick on day 2 and have to call it quits
Time for redemption
 
regulate34 said:
Looks like I am going to be elk hunting from my snowmobile this January

Even better. I got a sheep draw. Same one I got 5 yrs ago. But got nast sick on day 2 and have to call it quits
Time for redemption
Click to expand...

Best of luck!

I too will be hunting elk in Jan/Feb, but no snowmobile required.
 
ironsighter said:
Mathematically, this is the same thing as saying you put in for elk 1 year and didn't get drawn. Would that surprise you?

You could put in for elk for 100 years, and this year you'd have the same chances of winning as everyone else.

It is human nature to think it should "even out" over the years. Human nature in this case is wrong. The math doesn't give a sh!t how many times you applied, and it doesn't care about our feelings. I guess that's why I like the BC system so much. None of this "equity" (equal outcome) bullsh!t. I didn't realize there were so many Commies around here (not talking about you specifically, Pete). :p
Click to expand...

I know what my odds are, I was just stating a fact like others on this thread. I will eventually get an elk, but I doubt that it will be through the LEH.
 
Well I got nothing.Am I disappointed yes,will I still go for GOS yes.Last year my Dad and I both got moose draws for the same area but could not hunt because of active logging,like not a tree left in the area,full camp set up,road building and 20+ logging trucks running.That was dissapointing.

Be thankful we still have a general open season.
 
steveo44 said:
Well I got nothing.Am I disappointed yes,will I still go for GOS yes.Last year my Dad and I both got moose draws for the same area but could not hunt because of active logging,like not a tree left in the area,full camp set up,road building and 20+ logging trucks running.That was dissapointing.

Be thankful we still have a general open season.
Click to expand...

They were logging your whole zone? Where was it?
 
Wow, I haven’t been out there in a while. I used to work for the outfitter out there. Not all that many roads in the area. Probably trying to get as much logging done as they could before the caribou stuff went through
 
barry1974w said:
Wow, I haven’t been out there in a while. I used to work for the outfitter out there. Not all that many roads in the area. Probably trying to get as much logging done as they could before the caribou stuff went through
Click to expand...

Hunted there before and got a moose so were excited to go again but as soon as we crossed the parsnip river all changed.Decided to go to 7-31 for the open season,as we have hunted there too.That was almost as bad.One side of the valley they were doing mine exploration and the other side they were mapping out cut blocks,so there were alot of people working in the bush.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom