Wallenstein
CGN Ultra frequent flyer
- Location
- Not the Fraser Valley
What are the odds we will get the "Japan 2020 cancelled" event ?
IWA Show in Germany Cancelled due to Coronavirus
- Thread starter Nordic Marksman
- Start date
What are the odds we will get the "Japan 2020 cancelled" event ?
50/50 at best
It is less than 1% CFR (case fatality rate)
Flu has a higher CFR
The Peoples Rep of China is not publishing data on the demographics of the deceased (some countries are)
But AFAIK, there has been no fatalities of children, very few of middle aged persons
Older persons with already compromised immune or respiratory systems are taking the hardest hit.
It has been estimated that 30,000 Americans have already died from the flu from Nov 2019 until now.
Compared to what? maybe 2000 people worldwide from this ?
Its nothing to worry about.
Flu has a higher CFR
The Peoples Rep of China is not publishing data on the demographics of the deceased (some countries are)
But AFAIK, there has been no fatalities of children, very few of middle aged persons
Older persons with already compromised immune or respiratory systems are taking the hardest hit.
It has been estimated that 30,000 Americans have already died from the flu from Nov 2019 until now.
Compared to what? maybe 2000 people worldwide from this ?
Its nothing to worry about.
The Boogaflu is here!
Just be happy that the Turd and his blockade protesters will have Canada fully shutdown shortly, will limit the spread.
That guy above who that worried his RRSP is down 5% due to market jitters clearly isn’t thinking longer term like when Gold, ammo or survival food packets are the new currency
Just be happy that the Turd and his blockade protesters will have Canada fully shutdown shortly, will limit the spread.
That guy above who that worried his RRSP is down 5% due to market jitters clearly isn’t thinking longer term like when Gold, ammo or survival food packets are the new currency
Last year the flu had a death rate of 0.05% in the United States. This covid 19 has an estimated death rate from 1 - 3%. Even if its 1%, then that's 20 times the death rate of the flu.
The number of dead is irrelevant, as the situation is rapidly changing for Covid 19 as the number of infected are not even close to comparable. The covid 19 spread tremendously during the first 30 days, from one City to the whole of China. If it spreads worldwide, we could see casualties in the neighbourhood of 500,000 plus.
Wallenstein
CGN Ultra frequent flyer
- Location
- Not the Fraser Valley
In that case I'd like to convert to a different religion.
All in fun
CGN frequent flyer
Where are you getting this estimated death rate from? I kinda doubt it's from a very informed site.
I have tried to get my information from the most reliable and up to date sources I could find, such as the WHO, CDC and the Lancet.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30068-1/fulltext
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---24-february-2020
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1094999/china-wuhan-coronavirus-covid-19-fatality-rate-region/
CDC estimates for flu 2019/2020 showing death rate as high as 0.1%
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
CDC Last 10 years flu
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
Flu vs Covid 9
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
Death rate
So far this flu season, about 0.05% of people who caught the flu have died from the virus in the U.S., according to CDC data.
The death rate for COVID-19 appears to be higher than that of the flu.
In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.
Even so, the death rate for COVID-19 varied by location and an individual’s age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%. In addition, older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. Nobody 9 and under has died of this coronavirus to date.
Wallenstein
CGN Ultra frequent flyer
- Location
- Not the Fraser Valley
https://apnews.com/ec68be339befd9a35bb5a1e4a09aba4e
Well, not quite a cancellation of the Olympics, but still a big deal for all those who traveled there to participate.
All in fun
CGN frequent flyer
Your list and the comment about accuracy:
1)"At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude."
2)"Researchers from China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention"
3)Rather than posting the whole page, it's an indictment on the crappy health care system in most of China, which makes sense.
4) "They found that the fatality rate is between 2% and 4% in Wuhan, and 0.7% outside Wuhan". Again, a good case for saying if you're going to get sick, China is not the best place to be.
What you're doing is comparing health outcomes for the flu in the US to health outcomes for corona in China. The bottom line is there isn't nearly enough verified information available to come to a rational conclusion on comparative mortality rates. Amongst other things, there is no chance there is an infection rate we can trust from China. Equally, there is no chance we can assume the quality of care in China is anywhere near the quality in any first world country.
It would be similar to comparing fatality rates of a broken leg in 1720 versus 2020 in Canada.
It sucks, my son is going to Germany with his school in march. $4g up front, we are told it may be cancelled and even though we bought the insurance, we may receive up to 75% of the fee . Dude saved all his summer job money for this and been looking forward to it all year, really too bad.
What about the 29 deaths for 1100 infected in Italy as of today?
All in fun
CGN frequent flyer
Do you have any specific knowledge of the situation there?
If we dismiss all reports outside of North America as inaccurate, we will have to wait for the outcome at home. To me, that is too risky. Also, potentially too late.
For me, and the level of decisions I need to make, such as travel plans, I have to put some weight in the indications that this is more serious than the standard flu in North America, which only kills 0.05 to 0.1 percent, and act accordingly. Even if it kills 0.7 percent, that is 7 to 14 times greater than the common flu. If I catch it and spread it to those more vulnerable to dying than me, that is morally wrong.
While we wait for better statistics, its best to treat this with due caution as to what it might be, not what we hope it is.
For me, and the level of decisions I need to make, such as travel plans, I have to put some weight in the indications that this is more serious than the standard flu in North America, which only kills 0.05 to 0.1 percent, and act accordingly. Even if it kills 0.7 percent, that is 7 to 14 times greater than the common flu. If I catch it and spread it to those more vulnerable to dying than me, that is morally wrong.
While we wait for better statistics, its best to treat this with due caution as to what it might be, not what we hope it is.
Confirmed recovered vs dead is more accurate than total infected vs dead. Comparing recovered vs dead shows us it is fairly serious. Looking at the aggresive actions of some governments tells me they think its pretty serious to.
People seem incapable of understanding moderate risk levels. Its like everyone is either and ostritch or chicken little, decribing this as either nothing to even think about or look at or its the devil spawn of ebola and the spanish flu. Neither are helpful or honest.
This shows the signs of being serious and disruptive to a degree, putting strain on medical and food supplies and everyone should plan accordingly to that level of risk. Even the limp wristed milque toast weak willed Canadian governent told you to stock up. It doesnt mean for a year. It means in the event curfew or quarantine is put in place that you dont run out of toilet paper. It means so that if you do get sick with mild symptoms that you can stay home and take care of yourself rather than go out and buy food and cough syrup then infect more people.
People seem incapable of understanding moderate risk levels. Its like everyone is either and ostritch or chicken little, decribing this as either nothing to even think about or look at or its the devil spawn of ebola and the spanish flu. Neither are helpful or honest.
This shows the signs of being serious and disruptive to a degree, putting strain on medical and food supplies and everyone should plan accordingly to that level of risk. Even the limp wristed milque toast weak willed Canadian governent told you to stock up. It doesnt mean for a year. It means in the event curfew or quarantine is put in place that you dont run out of toilet paper. It means so that if you do get sick with mild symptoms that you can stay home and take care of yourself rather than go out and buy food and cough syrup then infect more people.
