BC LEH results are in
- Thread starter bhow
- Start date
barry1974w
Regular
- Location
- Central B.C.
As far as I know you can’t see the odds for all the hunts till the synopsis comes out next year. If you look at this years synopsis the odds posted are for last years draws. If you get the it does tell you what the odds were.
By nature of it being random, some people will get lucky and hit more often then average, others will hit less often. Plus, the draws are independent events, which means not getting a draw last year does not give you better odds this year, every year you're back to square one. The whole enhanced odds thing doesn't INCREASE your chance to draw so much as it decreases the odds for people who drew previously. (which does increase your odds, but only slightly compared to how much it decreases the odds for those who drew. You can read up on exactly how the enhanced odds works on the LEH webpage)
Personally I've gone pretty good on moose draws (2 in 6 years) but my group is doing far worse for does (also 2 in 6 years, but with 4 times as many applications across the group its 2/24 attempts). So as a whole we're above average with moose but below average with does, based on the odds for the units we've been applying for. Nobody has gotten an elk tag either but the odds on those are ludicrous.
More specifically, the odds aren't known until all applications are submitted - hard to know the odds for something that is based on how many people apply for the tag before those tags are applied for after all.
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BC LEH moose draws are done using an Enhanced Odds Algorithm. I was told so by the ministry when I made an enquiry some time ago.
That algorithm is not performing it's task when a person draws a moose tag 2 years in a row in an area with reasonable odds and a fairly good number of tags.
That algorithm is also not performing it's task when a new hunter does not draw a tag in an area with reasonable odds in 7 years of putting in for a specific area and time slot.
regardless , we have equipped ourselves with a cooler trailer so hunting the early August hunts up north will not be an issue now. I really only care about moose , all the other species have regular open seasons I can work with outside the LEH system.
Just because the moose algorithm says “enhanced odds” it still doesn’t mean “guaranteed leh”. Just because the enhanced odds haven’t worked for whoever it is you know, doesn’t mean they didn’t work for someone else…
Some people are naturally more lucky than others. Thats life.
the fact that here some are more lucky and working in the dept issuing the leh as nothing to do with odds or luck and that is the reason names are no more published ...
How the system works is clearly explained on their website. It basically works like this: every application is given a random number, and successful applicants from previous years are flagged. Applications are then organized by the random number, and the program goes down the list assigning first choice hunts until the list is exhausted. If it gets to your application and your 1st choice hunt is already full it goes onto the next application. At the same time, it automatically skips every other flagged application. It then repeats the process for 1st choice hunts, but does not skip flagged applications. Then it repeats the process for second choice hunts, during this 3rd and final pass the flagged applications are not skipped.
So enhanced odds randomly ignores half of the flagged applications, but only on the first pass. And it's random which ones get ignored (because of the randomly assigned number), so it's entirely possible that someone can go many years in a row without having their application ignored in the first pass.
Again. It's RANDOM. Your odds of drawing don't really go up with successive missed draws, and half the time they don't go down with a successful draw.
If you have real proof the algorithm isn't working properly I'm all ears, but "I didn't draw but I know a guy who always does therefore its broken" is not evidence of anything other than the inherent randomness of the system.
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Yes, more luck my bum,... CO's families here always have lots of LEH permits. I wonder how that comes, lol.
