Yes, it's a Tula. You can tell by the Star on the dust cover. Izhevesk ones have the circle with the triangle and the arrow in them. So, this is a 1951 Tula refurb. About it never being used after arsenal refurb, that's certianly possible. It's hard to tell these things, but it's indeed a possibility.
It looks to be in very good shape, you have a very solid rifle on your hands.
In terms of overpaying: These go for like, what, $220 -$230 or so from site sponsors before shipping and taxes. With shipping and taxes factored in, these can often run people up to or a little over $300 bucks. I wouldn't consider it to be unreasonable if you paid around there.
Enjoy it! Those refurbs actually have a lot of character: If you strip it down you'll see a ton of proof marks on the bolt and bolt carrier, they look really neat. Compared to my Chinese unissued ones, I find the Russian ones a little more interesting just by the sheer amount of proof marks all over them. I have an Izhevesk that is covered with the things, pretty cool!
Take it out for a shoot soon, and don't be afraid of the corrosive ammo. With good cleaning, it'll treat you just fine.