Skill vs luck?

subdermal

subdermal

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First, a story....


I shot my first deer in 2008. Since then I've been out every year, usually only for about 4 days, always in the same area. It's not as much as I'd like, but it's about all I can get away from work etc. I had not had another shot until this year, and I was honestly chalking it up to a lack of experience.

This year, we're on day 3 of the annual trip and still nothing. We're going over all the possibilities in camp of what we might need to work on etc, being more quiet (hard when the snow is crunchy) tracking skills,etc. Something that comes up is that I smoke, and while I don't smoke while hunting, I will have one in the morning before we leave, and before getting into the truck to go to a new area, etc, so they can probably smell cigarette smoke even if they hadn't smelled me yet.

So the next day, the 3 of us split up, one on the south side of a road and myself and the other guy on the north side, with plans to meet back at the truck in a couple hours. On my way in, I almost immediately flush out a doe from thick brush at about 50 yards and she bolts into the trees before I can get my rifle up. I follow along, hoping to be able to track it at least for practise, but there's not a lot of snow here and I don't see where she might have gone. I find patches of snow, and tracks in them, but I don't know if they're new or old.

So anyways, the couple hours pass and I head back to the main cutline back to the road. I see buddy further up the cutline headed my way, so I decide to just wait for him there. Since I'm waiting, and we're on our way back to the truck, it's smoke time. It's windy, so I've got my head down and my hat low while I try to light it. It finally sparks up and when I lift my head... there's my doe. Standing stock still in the cutline, maybe 40 yards away, looking at buddy. I lift my rifle to my cheek, nearly butting out my cigarette on it in the process.. wiggle the smoke to the other side of my mouth, and take the shot. She didn't drop on the spot, but we found her only a short distance away; a good heart shot.

So I got my deer on a "smoke break", which I was starting to think might be the problem.

All of which got me thinking... In the opinions of those who've been doing this a lot longer than me, how much of hunting success is skill, and how much is blind luck? How much is scent management, and moving quietly, and knowing the terrain and where the water and food sources are, and migration habits and breeding seasons etc, and how much is "sometimes a deer jumps out in front of you and waits for you to shoot it".

I know I still have a lot to learn, and I intend to, but... how much of an improvement should a newb expect?
 
Any single dead deer can easily be a matter of luck. What separates the lucky hunters from the good ones is long term continual success (with the occasional piece of luck thrown in). But it is repeated success that will come from skill.

I always, however, make sure I am ready to take advantage of the lucky chances I may get. Pay attention ALL the time you are hunting. That's the first skill to learn.
 
rral22 is exactly right. Consistency is the key to determining success being from luck or skill. I have "lucked" into a number of deer but it sure is easier to luck into them when watching the wind, setting up where they are apt to be and then being able to shoot them.
 
Don't take this as an offense, but there's really not much luck or skill involved in shooting a doe. They're relatively plentiful in most areas you find deer. If you're after a mature whitetail buck, that's a different story. Scouting, remaining quiet and the like definitely help a great deal, but it ultimately comes down to being in the right place at the right time, which is largely nothing but horsesh*t luck. The extremes are those who consistently shoot big bucks nearly every year and others who can never seem to get a break at a big one no matter how hard they try or the skills they possess. Most of us fall in between there somewhere.
I don't put much thought into scent control clothing or smoking, but rather pay attention to the wind direction in general. If they can smell smoke, they can smell you....too late. Think of it this way; if a bird dog gets sprayed by a skunk in the face, he can still smell the pheasants. That about shows the usefulness of cover scents, though there's the die hards who will try to dispell that myth. They're the ones the clothing and scent companies make money off. ;)
 
I would say your first clue was lighting your smoke.
You were still and your eyes caught her.
It's all in the eyes.
I see all that others don't.
Meaning, most people I hunt with will see game before me, usually.
I have a depth perception and a tad of color blindness.
The slower I go, the more I see.
I have a buddy that almost runs through the bush and he sees more
at this step than me crawling.
Dastard was blessed with fur eyes.
 
Im one of them roadhunter guys, i own a banged up toyota 4x4 for use as a hunting truck .
It goes where i want within reason, no winch or big tires ...just a lot of rust .
Im sure there is an art that i never learned , but over the years i have learned a few odd things.

It helps greatly if you know where what you are hunting lives, know the aria well
speed over 30 km hr you are going to miss a lot in the trees(Provided a couple local companys havent chopped them down yet)

In other words pay attention...sometimes that stump on that cutblock will get up an run away;)

As sad as it sounds to some ...Today we went out and saw 4 bull moose 2 bucks and a couple does
It was a great day with my boy


And Yes ...Its a lot of luck sometimes
Total bull moose we saw this season is i think 11(thats 11 diffrent moose)...This is only because i got no draw this year
Elk ...i lost count a long time ago
Bull elk ..also lost count(they are smart buggers...this year no general tag)


Oh and theres nothing wrong with shooting a doe..especialy this late in the game;)
 
Skill or luck......... you shot a yummy doe .......... no skunky post rut buck.

You stopped, you paused to light a smoke, you saw, you shot........... You scored!

Sometimes you win, sometimes not.

congrats

Lucky
 
I think hunting is mostly location, and utilizeing the area according to time of year and time of day. Much like fishing, there are high percentage spots and logical ways to work them. As long as you aren't doing things that are totally retarded the rest is just playing and waiting to get lucky. Some people overthink things to a ridiculous degree, and I suppose I was one of them once. Now I just play.

Pure luck comes up in the rut, when a big buck can show up anywhere, anytime. Over the years those luck bucks start adding up.
 
Hunting is a lot of luck. Its not everything, but its a lot.

The two current "hot streaks" at my camp are from:

My father in law ~ Practices a lot over the course of the year. Serious hunter. Plays with scent concepts. Is quiet in the bush. Keeps his guns spotless. Reloads.

Hunter B ~ Doesnt target shoot. Ever. Doesnt concern himself with scent or sound. Put his gun away after the deer hunt and doesnt look at it again for 11 months. More concerned with having fun at camp then harvesting animals.

But you know what? the deer dont seem to care who shoots them.
 
kamlooky said:
I would say your first clue was lighting your smoke.
You were still and your eyes caught her.
It's all in the eyes.
I see all that others don't.
Meaning, most people I hunt with will see game before me, usually.
I have a depth perception and a tad of color blindness.
The slower I go, the more I see.
I have a buddy that almost runs through the bush and he sees more
at this step than me crawling.
Dastard was blessed with fur eyes.
Click to expand...

Bingo!

If you don't spend much time scouting for game, your eyes are not accustomed to seeing game. Even if you are accustomed to seeing game, seeing a different type of game or game in a different type of country, can be challenging. I have amazed visitors with how quickly I can pick out a polar bear, and I've been amazed when other locals have picked out a bear I've missed. When we went to Africa, our tracker was amazing, he saw everything, and everything was a lot; be it impala, buffalo, or a black mamba. Not was he quick to spot game, but his eyesight phenomenal, Ali pointed out elephants on a far off hill, and the PH looking though his glasses told him he was crazy, they were rocks. "Hey Mark," I said as I strained though my 8Xs, "that rock just flapped his ears!" But by the time we left Tanzania, with a casual glance, my wife could tell hippos from rocks out across a river, and if I say so myself, I was able to pick out a leopard in a tree where it was missed by others.

When hunting move slowly, look, and see. If you see something that doesn't make sense, it requires further investigation. Listen, your ears can tell you nearly as much as your eyes. Sometimes even your sense of smell can alert you to an animal that is close by, but that you, wouldn't otherwise have been aware of. Don't rush, take your time, use your binoculars to scan ahead, even if just a short distance. The more time you can spend at it, the better you become, the better you become, the greater your success will be. When you do have the opportunity to hunt, soak it up ands revel in the experience, that matters more than what goes in the deep freeze or gets hung on the wall anyway.
 
I wouldn't sweat the smoking thing all that much. I have a buddy who says every deer he shot was while he was smoking a cigarrette, and the only time I smoke is a cigar as cover scent. I figure that the smoke smell is hard to come by as a deer, so they don't associate the smell with hunters. No association with hunters means that the deer aren't spooky all of a sudden. They can be curious creatures.
My cigars last about an hour or so (macanudo maduros) and it gives me something to do slowly. No fast jerky movements. Just nice and slow enjoying the scenery.
I also stand hunt and rarely walk the bush unless scouting for tracks, then I don't smoke.
 
Sure, there's a huge element of luck in hunting success or failure...but to a large extent, you make your own luck. The more you learn, the more good decisions and the fewer poor decisions you will make...and the luckier you will be!

When I hunted or fished with my brother, I almost invariably was more successful than he was, and the standard explanation was "luck". I always responded that I was indeed lucky...I was lucky because I spent all of my time in the boat actually fishing, instead of constantly retying knots, pawing through my tackle box, changing lures, eating, drinking, pissing, sleeping, fiddling with depthfinders, or just generally farting around instead of fishing.

I dragged a decent buck into my yard this year just as the same truckload of orange coats drove by for about the 6th time that day. I had been sitting in the snow for 7 hours and could see them going up the road, then down the road, then back up...all day. They actually pulled into the drive and chatted for a bit...mostly sincere, but the driver in particular seemed vaguely pissed off. He gruffly commented on my "luck". I didn't say what I was thinking.;)
 
I've hunted whitetail in the same area, approx. 20 miles north to south and 6 miles east to west for nearly 50 years. There is my home town in the middle of it all, so it is either "north of town", or "south of town". I chalk any "success" I've had up to mostly luck, with a percentage going to having a "half-assed idea" where there might be a deer. I don't go out before the season to scout, I don't use scent covering stuff, I don't have a rangefinder or a quad. My wife bought me a decent set of binoculars but I usually either can't find them or forget them. I have used an ugly old .32 94 for the past ten years. I don't shoot big bucks. (Not that I have had very many chances!) I enjoy hunting. I take my old rifle, maybe an apple or a chocolate bar, some shells, my 40 year old knife, some toilet paper, and away I go.

I am not being critical of those who do it other ways, I'm just sharing my style. I get skunked, but I don't mind. I am lucky to live in an area where there are usually scads of deer. Even then, I get skunked! I guess I am just lucky - some times!
 
I think luck always plays a factor ie. being in the right place at the right time. That being said if you consistently fill your tag then something more than luck is involved. Do you just randomly hang a treestand in the woods or pick a location based on scouting and knowledge of deer habits. If it's the latter than more than blind luck is involved. As far as smoking goes suit yourself but I'm a scent control freak and I still get busted by deer who pick up on whatever smell I accidently bring into the bush.
 
I've had more walk-ups when on a smoke break than any other time, so go figure. Maybe they like the smell of burning tobacco?
They also will draw in to the smell of warming libby's beans...

Seriously though, aftershave and deodarant are big no-no's. Plain un-scented soap and water are your friend.

If you are able to can the smoking long enough to hunt on stand, quitting is a hell of a good idea- especially while it's still easy. I'm a smoker, and far beyond not smoking on stand...

Regards,

Doc Sharptail
 
subdermal said:
I know I still have a lot to learn, and I intend to, but... how much of an improvement should a newb expect?
Click to expand...

Research and talking to experts helps up to a point, but the more time you spend out there, the more knowledgeable you will become, and knowledge contributes to long term success. Every time I go hunting I learn something. At the same time, if what you are doing isn't working, try something else. The worst thing in the world is continuing to do the same thing and expecting different results.
Also, I noticed nobody mentioned things like marksmanship or your fitness level. When the chips are down and you need to make an extra long or very quick shot, you can see who practices and who does not. If you are huffing and puffing at the top of a hill your shooting ability suffers. The last thing you want is for luck to kick in and you miss the opportunity because of a lack of fundamental skills.
 
I also have shot more deer while smoking than I have while not smoking.
It has become kind of a superstition now that I only get a deer when smoking.
If the wind is right I don't think a smoke changes anything.
 
Here is how I look at it take your hunting area big or small the object is to get the animal in all that area to walk by your stand(stand hunters)!The more you know your area your quarry its habits the more success you will have!Luck is nice to have but,think like a animal why would I walk by this spot if I have a million options!The most important one is hunt were the game is!
 
Have you ever read any of those 100 year old whitetail hunting books? Tobacco smoke was often thought of as being an attractant, along with sardine oil and ammonia. When I still smoked there was no way I could last on stand without haveig a smoke. It got so bad that I had to quit hunting from stands. Still killed a lot of big and old deer.

When I think back, just about every big game animal I've ever shot was looking right at me. Most of those had to know I was human or humanish, but for some reason they chose not to run that particular time. On a case by case basis animals usually win in a hunter encounter. Occasionally they just appear to commit suicide.
 
Knowledge , experience and education get the deer to you, or you to the deer depending on your hunting style.

Luck is having the trophy you WANT to come into your shooting lane.
 
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