Oh - I want another one or two!!!
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Oh - I want another one or two!!!
Supply might not dry up soon- but pricing won't stay like this forever.Originally Posted by rivetc78
Exactly. Pricing is the real issue. Not the supply of it.
A CGN sponsor is selling Norinco 1600rd crates in Vancouver right now for $400. Pricing? Not a problem, apparently.
In 1993:
oil was around $25/barrel. Today it is around $100/barrel - up 400%
copper was around $1/lbs. Today it is around $4/lbs - up 400%
lead was around $0.20/lbs. Today it is around $1/lbs - up 500%
zinc was around $0.40/lbs. Today it is around $0.90/lbs - up 225%
There is a finite quantity of 1993 manufactured .223. Once it's gone - it's the easiest call to make, that the price for any ammunition manufactured AFTER that time will rise in a similar fashion.
Remember - the price for them today is very much a reflection of the commodity prices of the time they were manufactured. It's the exact same thing as coinage - which is the REAL reason the Federal government killed the penny (it looks bad and calls into question the credibility of the government and safety of the currency they declare fiat when the commodity value of the currency is higher than it's face value).
The thing is, Norinco was manufacturing TONNES of firearms and ammunition for retail sale in the US in the 80's and 90's. When Clinton enacted the AWB in 1994, and outlawed import of Chinese firearms and ammunition this likely had 2 major consequences for Norinco:
1) Created a huge inventory of guns and ammo manufactured in the late 80's, early 90's that could no longer be sold to the largest firearms market on the planet
2) Suspended a huge amount of the manufacturing of new guns and ammo.
This effectively guaruntee's that the supply of ammunition manufactured in China, targetted for the US, will eventually run out and there won't be much else to take it's place.
When it get's to the point that 2013 Chinese manufactured ammunition hit's the shelves (if there is any at all) I think it's entirely possible the price for it will reflect the exponentially increased commodity prices.
Whether that comes this year or 5 years from now, I'm not concerned with. It's a guarantee - which is why I think under $450, these 1600 round crates are an absolute steal. Heck, under $500 it's a deal.
Absolutely ammunition is an investment. I have a VERY strong feeling that 5-10 years from now, I will be selling much of this ammo for $1-5/round. That's just the thing - I have the discipline to hold onto tangible investments like this over a timeframe like that. I don't think most people do.
Last edited by harbl_the_cat; 03-10-2013 at 02:43 AM.
When was that South African .308 here.... 2008?? $600+ a case
Everyone said...that's it, no more. Buy it now or cry later.
Guess what. Norinco .308 for under $500 a case 5 years later.
There will always be cheap ammo...
Those 10's of millions of rounds they can;t sell to the U.S as you stated will supply us for decades.
$1 a round for .223. or $5. LOL HAHAHAHA
NEVER happen. These ammo manufacturers will not make any money like that. No one would shoot. The entire industry would die.
That doesn't include shipping for me here in cowtown. Price goes up when supply runs low. Norinco NOS surplus ammo is cheap now because it's still available. If these dealers need to order a new run of it, it won't be going for $400 that's for sure.
Never happen? Hmmmmmmm: http://www.gunbot.net/ .
If the SHTF, harbl will likely see his $5/rd as a starting price. At any rate, why argue about price? Buy the damned stuff -- it's cheap, cheap, cheap right now.
Let's say there's 2 million Canadian shooters. Of that, let's say there's 5% of total shooters who can shoot .223, and of that, 10% of those willing to buy one of these crates.
That's 16 million rounds needed right away. I think that's a bit low though, given the number of people here on CGN alone (self included) who have posted buying 5-20 crates of the stuff. Revising the estimates, I'll 10% of the .223 shooting community buys this stuff, and buys on average 2 crates - meaning 32 million rounds needed right away.
The thing to realize with this Norinco stuff is obviously it's been sitting in state owned warehouses for the past 20 years. It cost's Norinco money and opportunity to use up that real estate, and as a manufacturing giant, they would rather retrofit old warehouses into factories (more money in it).
I'm sure they are working VERY hard to dump these stockpiles as a price to recover the 20 year cost of maintaining this inventory and probably don't even care too much about making that much of a profit on it (much higher margin's manufacturing consumer goods, rather than sitting on millions of rounds of ammunition).
If the US total manufacturing output of all calibres is 14 billion rounds, and .223/5.56 makes up 10% of that, means the US can probably make up 1.4 billion rounds of .223. We all know the US is the largest firearms and ammunition manufacturer on the planet, and I'm going to guess Chinese ammunition manufacturing industry in 1993 had maybe 1/4 the capacity of US ammo manufacturing industry today, so that's about 500 million rounds of .223 manufactured in 1993. Keep in mind, China was supplying CQ rifles to the Mujaheddin in Afganistan in the 80's, Iran, Syria, and a myriad of other countries - so it stands to reason that large amounts of this .223 ammo ended up being used by these countries - thus I think it's safe to assume a large chunk of that 500 million rounds would have already been gone.
Do a google search, and you can see a lot of this stuff already landed in the US the early 1990's (See here: m4carbine.net/archive/index.php/t-27947.html). Back then it was selling for $0.11/round USD. Today it's priced at $0.27 CAD with the USD and CAD at parity - a near 250% increase in price. Over a 20 year period, that's not a terrific return (silver is up about 600%, gold is up about 450% in the same time period) - but it certainly beats inflation, and imo, holding ammo is a MUCH better alternative to holding cash.
Chinese is the cheapest manufactured stuff on the planet. Indian, or Bangladeshi might be cheaper - and if we see $0.20/round Bangladeshi manufactured .223 - I'd double up on that too. Until we do, my savings are in Norinco .223.
Last edited by harbl_the_cat; 03-10-2013 at 12:17 PM.
Couldn't agree more! Man those prices hurt just looking at them. $1 every time u pull the trigger?! Ouch. Thx for posting that.
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