I've been attacked by a pack of rabid dogs for pointing out that the accuracy potential at distance for a 22 can be calculated... and has been validated by my own actual shooting as well others who are bold enough to admit it.
The math is quite basic... Take the accuracy in MOA at close range... like 1 MOA at 100 yards and multiply that times the distance, so 300 yards would be 3 MOA in a no wind condition.
But since there is a velocity spread we need to factor in the vertical affect, so if the load chronographs within 20 FPS ES then that's 2.06" of vertical
When we add the two we get a group 3 inches wide at 300 yards and 5.06 inches tall.
That's what it can do in ideal conditions if you have a 1 MOA rifle and ammo with an ES of 20 FPS.
Why people challenge this logic is something I will go to my grave not understanding.
Sure wind and mirage will play it's game, but that does not change the fact that a 22 is perfectly well capable of hitting pop cans at 300 yards in calm conditions with little or no mirage.
If any particular shooter cannot do this does not prove as evidence that the above math is flawed. It just proves that the rifle and ammo being used does not meet the parameters described.
First and foremost, please do not take this as a personal attack. This is about the ideas presented above, not about the person presenting them.
In the best of conditions -- which is to say in a perfect, ideal world, where calculations on a ballistic app are borne out in actual practice time and time again -- a .22LR round can almost do as described above. On paper (as in making calculations) it is possible to calculate what a round will do because it is a function of mathematical equations and calculations. This is the "theory" part of the question.
In the physical world, that is to say in the world where everyone shoots, there is nothing at work to make a bullet travelling downrange more accurate. Instead, everything that Mother Nature has at her disposal is working to decrease the accuracy of the bullet. Everything. This is the "practical" part of the question.
Two factors are worth considering. First, the effects of gravity, while calculable, do not increase accuracy, but make it more difficult to maintain. Shooting a laser beam, which is more or less unaffected by gravity (as far as those of us reading these pages can tell), can predictably and reliably have a POI exactly where expected. A bullet, however, is another thing. At 200 yards, the effects of gravity cause a SV bullet to drop about 58 inches, an HV bullet about 42 inches. In theory it's easy to predict how much the drop will be at a given distance and adjust the sights for that drop. In the real world it is exceedingly difficult to put the theory into practice.
If a rifle and ammo can shoot 1 MOA at 100 yards, there is no reason to assume that the same level of accuracy will continue to 300 yards -- except of course with pen and paper, or with a ballistic calculator. Ammo with an ES of 20 fps is very optimistic. Few shooters shoot that kind of ammo. In the real world, even match ammo that costs $10 - $15 per box is good if its ES is 50 fps. More than likely it is even higher. That adds considerable vertical spread -- more than twice what is calculated above. Maintaining the same level of accuracy that is possible at 100 yards with a .22LR is simply not possible at 300 yards. Everything is working against accuracy, not for it. And that is even if the human factor, so often ignored in the equation, is not taken into account.
Second, the wind can be taken into account on paper or with a ballistic app, but it is not nearly so easy in the physical world to have practical results and theory in lock step. In an ideal world no one would worry about the wind, but that's not the environment where shooters shoot. A one mile per hour crosswind, which is hardly noticeable and barely causes leaves to move, will cause both SV and HV bullets to drift over 2 inches at 200 yards, over 4 at 300. Imagine the results if the wind gusts between 0 and 1 mph as the bullets travel downrange. Clearly the wind does not work to promote accuracy, especially with the .22LR bullet, as susceptible to wind drift as it is.
Only in the world of theory, in the world of ballistics apps or calculators, is it possible to shoot a .22LR with precision at ranges beyond 100 yards. In the real world, math doesn't shoot. It helps, but it doesn't produce results downrange. In practice there is nothing that influences the path of the bullet that works to help increase the accuracy of the bullet. On paper calculations or on ballistic apps, there is nothing that can't be accounted for, from gravity and wind, from temperature to air pressure, and from altitude to latitude. But in the real world, every factor militates against accuracy.
To be sure, this doesn't mean that it is not possible to hit a pop can at 300 yards. It can be done. The question remains how often. What percentage of shots miss completely? By how much? Hitting such a target most of the time is pretty good. But that's as far as it should be taken. It should not be misconstrued into something it clearly isn't.
When it comes to consistent and significant accuracy, the .22LR round is best at no more than 50 yards, certainly no more than 100. Yes, it can reach out further than that (remember the warning on a box of ammo "Dangerous within 1.5 miles") but it's best accuracy remains less than many long range shooters enthuse about. Shooters rarely shoot in ideal conditions and they certainly don't shoot with ideal ammo. If they did, then results more closely in line with what the ballistic apps show may be increasingly possible but still not duplicated.
For those who shoot long distance such as 200 and 300 yards, I say good for you. The .22LR can shoot that far and further still. While its accuracy diminishes increasingly with distance, it can nevertheless be an enjoyable way to shoot and get to know the rifle and ammo. Airgunners who shoot what is long distance for them with .22, .25, and .30 caliber PCP's know full well that it's an uphill struggle to maintain a level of accuracy that is noteworthy. There's no reason that .22LR shooters can't do the same.
In the end, there are more important questions to have when the time comes to go to the grave. Why a .22LR does not shoot in practice as it does in theory should not be one of those puzzles.
