If you're shooting one day at 100 yards and it is 18 C out and you're getting pretty decent results, but then go back the next morning and it is only 2 C out when you start, and you see results that look rather poor compared to when you left the range the previous day, what changed? We just stated that the temperature changed. So what does temperature affect?
Why would some ammo seem to perform about as well regardless of temperature swings while other ammo seems to get better or fall apart in certain temperature ranges? Why would one ammo do well at 100 yards one day and not so good the next? We've discussed these things before. Some ammo is more temperature sensitive than others. Some lube, like CCI Standard Velocity, seems to work fine in the summertime but in the winter it seems like it is too hard and begins behaving more erratically as the temperatures drop. Some powder has its burn rate change more dramatically with temperature changes than others. Primer compound can also have its burn rate affected by the thermometer. All of these things affect velocity and consistency. And velocity and consistency affect the performance on target.
It should not be a mystery as to why performance on target changes when there is a noticeable change in muzzle velocity from one day to the next. Getting good performance on target is reliant on having muzzle exit timing that agrees with what that muzzle is doing at the time. When you change the muzzle exit timing there is a not insignificant chance that you're going to affect performance on target in a not insignificant way. The barrel is not unlike a tuning fork. They're both cantilevered beams. One just happens to be hollow and we happen to push bullets down that hole. Where it is in its vibration cycles when the bullets exit is of extreme importance. Bullets that are averaging 1075 fps one day and 1070 fps the next aren't necessarily going to give you the same performance on target. Any changes in velocity are going to result in changes in muzzle exit timing, and that is going to affect their launch angles, and thus their performance on target.
I recall trying to have a discussion with you previously regarding muzzle exit timing and how two rounds with the same muzzle velocity can have different impact elevations. I tried pointing out how variance in the different round components can result in different acceleration curves even when they ultimately both leave at 1075 fps. If the barrel were perfectly stiff and didn't deflect in any way at all then, yes, both 1075 fps rounds would indeed hit the same spot on target, not counting for the wind. Say we're shooting indoors for sake of the example, so we don't need to account for the wind. In that case, with the mythical perfectly stiff barrel, it wouldn't matter what the muzzle exit timing was because the barrel isn't moving in any way. So it also wouldn't matter if round 1 accelerates slightly differently than round 2 does. All that matters in that case with that unmovable barrel is muzzle velocity.
But none of us have 10-metre-diameter barrels that do not flex during firing. We've all got typical barrels which do flex during firing. And thus we do have to take that flex into account. They're vibrating in a certain pattern, and where in that pattern the bullet exits affects the launch angle. So now it does matter how both those rounds got to 1075 fps. In that previous conversation I tried several times to get you to understand that slight differences in the various components can result in acceleration curves that do not match. Not all 1075 fps rounds accelerate with the same acceleration curve. It was your contention that since they're both 1075 fps they must have had the same acceleration curve, for if they had different acceleration curves they would have different muzzle velocities. No matter how many times I tried to point out that not all powder burns the same, not all rounds have the same amount of lube, not all primer compounds ignite exactly the same, not all bullet crimps are the same tightness, all things that change how long it takes all of the powder to ultimately burn and how quickly that burning is happening from start to finish, you didn't seem to grasp that it would be possible to have differing acceleration curves if the ultimate velocity were the same. But it is indeed possible for two 1075 fps rounds to have differing acceleration curves. And it is those differing acceleration curves that make it possible for both rounds to have differing muzzle exit timing despite having the same muzzle velocity. And when they have different muzzle exit timing that means their launch angles are probably going to be different as a result. And that affects the performance on target.
Say we have two rounds that are perfectly the same in every single regard. The cases and the bullets are impossibly perfect, even down to containing precisely the same number of atoms. The lube mix is just as impossibly perfect, as is the primer compound and the powder. They both are exactly the same. If you shoot them both they will both have exactly the same acceleration curves and will leave with exactly the same muzzle velocities with exactly the same launch angles. They'll go through the same hole on the target without even making that hole the tiniest bit larger. You wouldn't be able to tell that two bullets had gone through it no matter how much you magnified it.
Now, start over with the same two impossibly alike, only this time the bullet crimp on one wasn't quite the same. It is slightly looser in that crimp, but otherwise just as identical as the first example. What happens this time? Well, with the bullet crimp being slightly looser that means it is going to leak a little bit more between the case and the bullet. That means it is going to start off burning the powder at a slightly slower rate until the brass finally expands enough to get a good seal against the barrel. Powder burn rate depends on pressure. So, with less pressure, it is going to burn more slowly at first. Once the seal with the barrel is achieved the pressure can begin rising like it normally would and the powder burn rate increases again. But during that brief period of time when there was a small amount of leakage there was a decrease in powder burn rate and it thus took a longer amount of time for the bullet to begin accelerating, and the acceleration curve was different. This will result in not only having different muzzle exit timing, but it is also going to have a different velocity. The different muzzle exit timing and the different velocity is going to mean it will hit a different spot on the target.
Now look at a third pair of bullets. Both impossibly alike again, one with a slightly worse crimp again, only this time the one with the slightly worse crimp somehow got slightly more powder. Otherwise, they're impossibly alike again. What happens this time? The one with the slightly looser crimp has slightly more leakage again, and gets off to a worse start again, but once the case seals to the barrel things can begin burning in a better fashion again. And this time we have slightly more powder than the other round. So the acceleration curve differs, but this time we have slightly more powder to gain back the velocity we lost in the last example. So this time both rounds end up with the same 1075 fps muzzle velocities. Only the loose crimp round accelerated in a different fashion. It took longer to exit as a result. So this time the velocities are the same, but the launch angles are slightly different because of the differing acceleration curves. So, again, they hit different spots on target.
I feel this last point is something not many people think about. And I think it is a large factor in people thinking that rimfire is inconsistent. When you have rounds that have the same muzzle velocity hitting different spots on target it does indeed seem like rimfire is inconsistent. And it is inconsistent. But it isn't a mystery why. Many people claim it is just dumb luck and we can't explain what is going on, and that if two rounds have the same velocity they should be hitting the same spot on target. We just need to accept that we're going to have a certain amount of fliers with rimfire and get over it and just accept it. While I agree it is just dumb luck and we will have a certain number of fliers and we have to just accept it, I don't agree that it isn't explainable. I feel what I've just said explains it rather well. Shooting guns is just a physics problem. And physics explains it rather well, from start to finish. If our calculations don't match reality it is simply because we haven't included all the proper factors yet. It's not an unsolvable problem. We just need to look more closely at it if our expectations don't match what actually happens. There's no magic factor that gives the activity a certain amount of unknowability. When expectation and reality don't match, we've overlooked something. But it is a known problem, with known factors, all of which can be calculated. That doesn't mean we can easily do something about every factor. We may not even be able to do anything about some of them. But they're not mysterious and unknown. At least, they shouldn't be. But some people are indeed overlooking one factor or another, and mistakenly attributing it to unknowable magic. There are reasons for the results we see. We may not always know those reasons, but this should be down to not being sure of the value of some factors. Throwing our hands up in the air and saying "It can't be known." isn't how we should be. We can indeed learn what the pieces are that we're currently missing. It is all knowable. We just can't do something about all of it. Some of it is out of our control.