I think you are right on the money, TragicallyHipGrandpa.
Mexico, from about 2010 onwards, was often right on the edge of SHTF. There were motorized bad-guys staking out the gun ranges and there were several attempts to pull over known gun-club members to rob them of their firearms. I knew of people who went through it and survived or even drove out of it, but I was also aware of at least one attempt where the member simply "disappeared" although their vehicle was found.
We favored .357 revolvers that had been remarked to .38 Special (as .357 is prohibited for civilian ownership in Mexico) and registered as .38 Specials. The load we used was the Elmer Keith loading of a 173 grain Lyman (or equivilent) 358490 Lead SWC cast bullet ahead of 13.5 grains of 2400 powder loaded into .38 Special casings.. From 8 inch revolvers this gave us about 1450 fps and sometimes almost 1500 fps out of 8 3/8 inch S&W guns with tighter cylinder gaps of around .004 or .005. From my 6 inch (well, 5 7/8 inch) Model 28 remarked as a Model 23, I could get a nice 1,360 to 1,370 fps out of that same load. We felt this would give us adequate car-door penetration against unarmored vehicles as you'd probably be shooting at a vehicle only feet away from you (after yelling across that you can't hear them, what did they say, what did they say?) and edging over as close as you can get and aiming at anyone aiming at you first -- and then their driver -- while realizing that a one-hand, left-hand shot double action under stress might go a bit low.
My Model 28 (remarked to Model 23 and registered and marked as a .38 Special). With S&W Diamond Targets and a Larry Potterfield green ramp front sight. I still have this gun awaiting my return down in Mexico.
From my 5-inch barreled guns, either Phil Roettinger's Non-Reg. Mag. (the 2nd last one ever built) or my 627, velocities were around 1,340 fps from both guns. A bit higher or lower depending on the day, but still nice. I still have Phil's Non-Reg. Mag of course, it's quite valuable. I sold the 627 to a friend when I left and were I to replace it with another 8-shooter I would definitely opt for the TRR8, but am thinking on going the L-frame route when I return so I might just go for a 5-inch 7 shooter and call it a day.
From a 4 inch barrel, like my Heavy Duty, I got around 1,300 to 1,320 fps. I was very pleased with it, and it's power rating. The size is right. It's a bit heavy for concealed carry -- and you need to remember, in a real SHTF situation, you'll probably be shot out-of-hand for being visibly armed off your property, just like in Mexico today. There are no "CCW" permits that mean anything in those situations. Concealed carry means concealed carry, it cannot be spotted. (Which is why I favor my Model 49 snubby in a pocket holster, but then I've actually done this for years on end in public and in warm weather instead of just sitting around speculating about it with a tingling anticipation and wondering what it might be like). By the way, carrying a 627 or Heavy Duty concealed CAN BE DONE, but not in really warm weather. Dillon used to sell a pancake holster that pulls the gun in nice and tight, and Galco had (at least for while, maybe they still do) a decent inside the pants holster for N-frames. I mean, you CAN do it. It's just not all that comfortable and it would be tough on hot days. The TRR8 is a lot lighter than any of my steel N-frames were, so that would help. I carried my 8-shot through a full workday in San Miguel once just to prove I could do it. But it was December or January (long sleeve weather) and I could wear a light suit jacket over an untucked shirt. It worked. I still have this 4 inch Heavy Duty awaiting my return as well.
As barrel length falls under 4 inches however, your velocity falls under 1,300 fps. To paraphrase Jeff Cooper, taking some license here: "a 170 grain SWC at 1,450 fps would be quite the problem solver. The same bullet at 1,300 is still pretty good. Falling below that, you're not getting what you paid for." The one 3.5 inch Model 27 (not remarked or registered) I managed to test gave us 1,260 fps velocities. A remarked 4 inch Model 19 or 66 is still going to give you 1,300. And it's lighter.
As for the 2.5 inch barrels, the "Baby Magnums", although they are adorable guns and pleasing to look at, they often are only around 1,120 to 1,150 fps with lots of bark and beller. And flash, and recoil. I'm sorry, but any post-1957 6 or 8-inch K-38 can be loaded to those respective velocities safely with the same bullet (not according to the reloading manuals, obviously, but yes it can be done). So to sum up, I think the 5-inch barrel is probably the way to go so you have enough power for reliable car-door penetration and yet you're still able to conceal the piece if you have to. And the TRR8 gives you all that, plus the lightweight advantage and 8 shots. What more could you want? And it's legal here -- at least, still.
(I spent a pleasant afternoon trying to get a 2.5 inch Model 19 up to 1,200 fps with the 170 grainer and never came close. I did get a Lee 160 grain SWC up to a reliable 1,180 fps. Recoil and flash and concussion were memorable.)
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