Does lead retract slightly as it cools??
No it actually expands. After 1 week the cast bullet is both as hard and as big as its going to get. (Lead surface hardens with age)
The harder the lead alloy the more expansion will take place.
To relate a story --
I was casting some 165gr .318" dia bullets in a hard (90 brunel-aprox lynotype) and sizing with a .316" then a .314" and lubing
The next day they had grown to .316" again...so I resized to .314" a week later I went to use the gun and they wouldn't chamber. I miced one of the offending bullets to find it had grown to .3165"! Time to break out the kinetic hammer....
Also while a .002"-.004" over size bullet offers some versatility in how many different guns it can be sized to fit into. Top accuracy will come from a bullet either cast on size or sized .001" to the appropriate diameter.
My .318" to a .314" is a no no in this respect.
The more tin (Sn) and antimony (Sb) is in the mix the harder your alloy. So the hardness of say wheel weights can be increased by the addition of tin/antimony solder. You can also cast oversize by doing this. For instance a 303Brit slugged at .315" can have appropriate sized bullets cast from a .312" mold by utilizing a hard alloy in the casting process,and allowing the bullets to sit around for a week or so before sizing and loading. This practice comes at a cost however. Weight. Tin/Antimony are much less dense than Pb (lead).
Also Antimony levels exceeding aprox %6 may become too brittle for bullet use.
Increasing the tin content helps the lead flow better and a more uniform bullet to bullet casting is achieved with better mold filling characteristics.
Tin on its own will increase the hardness of lead alloys somewhat but Antimony is the real hardness increaser.
Now a harder bullet is going to hold up better under higher velocities but it will not slug up the same as a softer bullet does, nor will it expand on a game animal reliably.
Harder bullet alloys should be kept closer to bore .dia for a hard alloy sized .002" over bore dia with a stout load behind it can be detrimental to the shooters face.
This being said a bullet too conservative in dia will allow gas leakage and will result in poor accuracy and bad barrel leading, which over consecutive shots can lead to increased pressures as the over sized bullet did......
At this point I'm going to simply suggest you;
1)Slug your bore
2)Cast a conservative .001" oversize bullet
3) Use wheel weights
This is a simple starting point and one of the many bullet casting books on the market will provide you with tables, references. Tips and tricks that will allow you to advance with the practice.
Hopefully I haven't made things too complicated here for you LoL.