Ammo and Reloading Components - World Market - Whats Driving The Price Up ?

[warrenb]

Andrew,
I like the topic of this thread I just wondered if there would be a liitle more insight from your first post.

Respect.

 

[CyaN1de]

Not true at all.

Look at the price of gas. Kind of dropped off a wee bit over the last 4 months.

I bet the time cycle for metal to reach a manf can be as long as 6 months. If coming from overseas, transit is 1 month ONCE it hits the ocean. Forget about all the time to make the alloy, ship the alloy, stage at the docks, load, ship, unload, customs, transit, and off loading.

Domestic supply may still be several months so we are chasing the tail on commodity pricing. Especially when it is bouncing around at a rate never seen before.

Same like what happened last year when our dollar was at US$ par. Consumers screamed that their pricing had not gone down fast enough. For the retailer, they had to eat the currency spread for stock that was purchased several months earlier at unfavorable exchanges.

Well, I had the pleasure of opening my 'store' and see the fastest DROP in Cdn currency ever recorded. How about a 25% drop in less then 30days? Try working that into your costs...

Consumers are always quick to jump on getting prices down but very resistant to rising costs. That makes sense.

All those in the supply chain have to balance profits with market forces. Sometimes, that simply cannot react fast enough.

Jerry

The hole in this theory is that when prices on manfd products started to climb, they climbed WITH the rising cost of raw materials. Search back through threads from 8-9 months ago, there were threads on how the rising cost of raw materials was driving the prices up.

If your theory was correct, as the prices of raw materials climbed, the stock they had bought at a lower price 3-4 months previous would have been used and there would not have been a rise in product cost at that time.


Gas prices did drop off a little and have been slowly climbing up again. They did not drop the same rate as the raw materials did though, if they had, we would be paying 45-50c/l instead of 90c

 

[warrenb]

The hole in this theory is that when prices on manfd products started to climb, they climbed WITH the rising cost of raw materials. Search back through threads from 8-9 months ago, there were threads on how the rising cost of raw materials was driving the prices up.

If your theory was correct, as the prices of raw materials climbed, the stock they had bought at a lower price 3-4 months previous would have been used and there would not have been a rise in product cost at that time.


Gas prices did drop off a little and have been slowly climbing up again. They did not drop the same rate as the raw materials did though, if they had, we would be paying 45-50c/l instead of 90c

Gas prices are totally contrived. And if this statement is true then its likely so are many others. Gas prices were uber high a couple of months ago. Then we hit the recession and conveniently gas prices dropped dramatically. Tell me I'm not onto something here.
Also I think Andrews initial post regarding Hornady (as an example) supply fixing may not be too far from the truth. There is something going on at some level. We certainly have no control, but it would be interesting to me at least, to find out how all this sheit works.

 

[Mystic Precision]

The climb early last year was quite gradual and pretty much mimics the normal 'expected' rise. Call it product inflation. Commodities have been on a steady climb for about 5 yrs. Just track the TSX history since 2000.

However, through 2008, commodities from oil to potash to metals shot up many fold. That inflation is no where near even the steepest price increases we see now. The consumer simply will not support that - also a big reason things have since crashed.

What we are seeing now is the result of that massive spike. A product sells out at $15/box only to reappear at 18.50/box a month later.

All the market forces and options are at play - the demand from the wars, domestic fears, commodity price increases, supply disruptions and delays, oil and all that it does, economic problems increasing/limiting the flow of cash, etc, etc, etc, kind of all hit at once.

With prices falling in so many areas, deflation is happening so prices will/should come down in our sport too.

If prices continue to rise and stay high, the one area we should start to see a huge change is in competition.

Right now, this industry, as far as we are concerned, is a US supplied game. Get the price high enough and overseas players come in. There are some really good and very large suppliers that could decide they want a piece of this pie. Afterall, with global peace on everyone's mind, who else do you sell this stuff to?

Companies from E. Europe are showing up and their product is decent. Why not asia? Why not Russia? After all, these are some of the largest manfs in the world.

Import restrictions will limit this but eventually, markets will find a way.

They have for every other product we consume. But for the near term, supplies are tight, costs are higher. STill cheaper and more fun then other habits.

Jerry

 

[B]

I'd love to see more commercial ammunition made in Canada as well as Europe\Asia soldon our shelves. Sellier and Bellot makes a fine product for a good price, good luck finding it with any regularity though. For instance, S&B in a local store 12.99\50, same offering of dirtier American eagle is 16.99\50. We need to start pulling in product from places other than the US IMO. Easier said than done I am sure,but worth it in the long run.