ammo situation worsening.... and worsening..... and worsening ....... May 5, updated

[ALBERTA BOY]

No one is out shooting anymore than they have been before using up the supply, and the factories producing it have not been mothballed, burnt down, or bombed, and are putting out just as much product into the supply chain as before

What you are implying is obviously not correct. Supply is NOT coming in the same usual. Cabelas is down from 4 pallets per week to 1 and Phil from p&d has already laid out the challenges with supply he is experiencing.

Factories may be producing the same or more ammunition as always but the ammo that is coming to Canada is zero. What's in the supply chain is all that's left.

 

[VanMan]

I'm thankful I live in a society where people can make their own choices on what to buy and when. Yes, it comes with it's own pitfalls in that in some cases people will stockpile and some may even try to make a profit on it. But that's not a new thing. that has probably existed since people started trading goods centuries ago. You can choose to buy as you need something, or you can choose to lay up whatever stock you want and can afford. But we all know that at the first hint of a shortage, there will be people who will buy more - either to ensure they have what they need for some extended period of time or maybe even to resell later on. So instead of complaining about these swings in supply/demand and what other people do or don't do, I just choose to buy stuff when it's at a good price and ensure I have enough to last out these swings.

And this is exactly it.

No one is out shooting anymore than they have been before using up the supply, and the factories producing it have not been mothballed, burnt down, or bombed, and are putting out just as much product into the supply chain as before (likely more as they have less military orders with the wind down of Iraq and Afghanistan and they can turn that production into commercial orders).

However people (even those who have lots already) think there is a shortage, and perceive a shortage (or price increase) in the future, and are thus hoarding more than normal, and some in anticipation of making money off buying it now and selling it for more in the future. Even people who normally buy as they need it from those store shelves have been told it might not be there when they want it (or vastly more expensive) and are buying it in anticipation of needing it latter and not having it on the store shelf.

This creates a self fulfilling prophecy and demand curve to justify a price increase, which in turn makes people run out to buy more before the price increase or while it is still there, and so on and so on.

We as consumers have given a fear premium to the price and the subsequent hoarding is creating the justification for it all, and creating a perception of some sort of shortage.

Eventually even the hoarders will have more than they can use, the casual shooters will have supply so they will not need to stop in the store to buy on the way to the range, and the factories will be at full production meeting this current demand and hit a point where that demand drops and everyone is full up on supply. Prices will then drop to keep the manufactures in business. We seen it after 2008, and will see it a few years after this "crisis".

There is more ammunition out there than ever before, and it is making its way to consumers hands faster than ever before, and just not sitting on store shelves.

We as consumers are our own worst enemy, and Obama has pulled the best "stimulus" package he could ever invent for the firearms industry.

 

[harbl_the_cat]

And this is exactly it.

No one is out shooting anymore than they have been before using up the supply, and the factories producing it have not been mothballed, burnt down, or bombed, and are putting out just as much product into the supply chain as before (likely more as they have less military orders with the wind down of Iraq and Afghanistan and they can turn that production into commercial orders).

However people (even those who have lots already) think there is a shortage, and perceive a shortage (or price increase) in the future, and are thus hoarding more than normal, and some in anticipation of making money off buying it now and selling it for more in the future. Even people who normally buy as they need it from those store shelves have been told it might not be there when they want it (or vastly more expensive) and are buying it in anticipation of needing it latter and not having it on the store shelf.

This creates a self fulfilling prophecy and demand curve to justify a price increase, which in turn makes people run out to buy more before the price increase or while it is still there, and so on and so on.

We as consumers have given a fear premium to the price and the subsequent hoarding is creating the justification for it all, and creating a perception of some sort of shortage.

Eventually even the hoarders will have more than they can use, the casual shooters will have supply so they will not need to stop in the store to buy on the way to the range, and the factories will be at full production meeting this current demand and hit a point where that demand drops and everyone is full up on supply. Prices will then drop to keep the manufactures in business. We seen it after 2008, and will see it a few years after this "crisis".

There is more ammunition out there than ever before, and it is making its way to consumers hands faster than ever before, and just not sitting on store shelves.

We as consumers are our own worst enemy, and Obama has pulled the best "stimulus" package he could ever invent for the firearms industry.

I agree with you completely except for one detail.

Ammo will come down from the highs its at now, but in the long run it can no more go down in price any more than our currency can appreciate to the point that one cent can buy 2 grams of copper (the copper content of a pre 1996 penny).

The thing is, I focus a lot on .22 - but I have bought very little .22 since before Christmas, but I'm pretty sure I've been saying long time that ammo was going to go up in price and I was stocking up.

I actually am not out looking for .22 ammo right now to resell for a profit or because I'm anticipating a short term price spike where I can sell it. I'm planning 5 youth shoots this spring and summer, and need 6-7 bricks per event.

I bought (and buy) ammo because I am a long term investor and I know with absolute certainty ammo will be priced higher in the future, there will be willing buyers, and ammo properly stored won't degrade over the timeline I have planned to hold it.

My oldest girl is 2 years old. I often ask myself what I can store up here, that my girls as adults can look at with the same appreciation and understanding that I do know, that has the same value in their time that it does now.

Obviously the currency doesn't meet that criteria, savings accounts in any financial institutions, even Canadian held land. If I were to die tomorrow, the government would tax all those things and rob my children of their rightful inheritance. They try to do it now that I'm alive, they will try to do it when I die.

How exactly they could tax the private sale of tangible goods between individual buyers and sellers I'm not entirely sure. I've never claimed any of my sales on the EE or Kijiji or at gunshows on my income tax. By my estimation, everything I want to leave for my children are things that make the government work for to try to confiscate.

This more than anything is the reason I personally stock up on ammo, along with other high value tangible commodities. I love my children and want to store up the wealth I have worked hard to accumulate now for their benefit in the future.

More important than the material, though, is the wisdom and discernment that out government indoctrinates OUT from them through it's "education." Back on topic, this entails understanding when most of the people around them are saying things like the "situation (is) worsening," they can panic, get angry, or look for opportunities.

 

[VanMan]

Hey harbl_the_cat, you may want to think about vintage ports. I bought a case of Graham 1994 Port when my daughter was born - I had read about that practice in the UK. I figured it's an investment for her future. If there's enough value, I can either sell them and give her the money towards something she wants/needs. Or we can always enjoy them to to celebrate happy events like graduations, weddings, grandchildren, ....

I also bought a box of Hoyo de Monterrey double coronas. But that's really for me. Just love a good aged cuban cigar and definitely going to be smoking one of these to celebrate her graduation, wedding, grandchildren, .....
(ok, I confess, I do tend to plan ahead a bit ....)

My oldest girl is 2 years old. I often ask myself what I can store up here, that my girls as adults can look at with the same appreciation and understanding that I do know, that has the same value in their time that it does now.

Obviously the currency doesn't meet that criteria, savings accounts in any financial institutions, even Canadian held land. If I were to die tomorrow, the government would tax all those things and rob my children of their rightful inheritance. They try to do it now that I'm alive, they will try to do it when I die.

hmmmm, just thinking I'm getting a little off track on this thread. Buy it cheap and stack it deep. Good advice and not just for ammo.

 

[enfield303t]

If you think the US is going to ship to Canada when they have back orders for hundreds of millions of rounds in their own country you are very mistaken. They will fill orders for the US first and the likes of Cabellas Canada will get priority as they are a US company. I recall when we mandated bilingual packaging, Redfield told it's Canadian wholesaler (Winchester Canada) they would no longer ship to Canada, market was too small and they sold more scopes in California than all of Canada combined.

The same goes today, California sells more ammo than all of Canada combined, where as a US manufacturer would you ship to?

Think of Canadian Tire, around 480 stores and if they all order just one case of 5,000 .22 ammo there is over two million rounds gone from their warehouse in one order cycle. I don't care how much they have in their warehouse today, they don't have enough.

There are going to be shortages of .22 and .223 for sure, how bad no one knows but we in Canada don't have enough. Our only saving is China however ammo from there doesn't arrive a week after you order it and NR Canada can take its sweet time releasing a shipment.

I have seen the price of .22 rise in the last month, it will go up further and the wise bought it a few months ago when it was at its lowest.

If you have the cash and find a good price on the cal you want BUY IT, the chances of loosing money are slim and fat!

 

[burnaby]

Some of us stock up to save money. Bulk primer last year was only 30 bucks per 1000; now the same store is OOS with no ETA.

Lots of great XMas sales last year (powder 25% off). Gonna buy in bulk to save which incidentally looks like hoarding

 

[klaus enuff]

I brought a dolly to the sales at Reliable and Italian. Cases of 9mm/$200, cases of .22lr/$160.00. I bought 3 cases of each among other calibers. When I bought them I still had unopened cases sitting at home so I didn't really need to buy them. But I knew I would not see prices like that again all year. If I had known what would happen in the states I would have bought a lot more.

 

[burnaby]

ISG loan out dollies, no lineups on Friday. Wish I picked up more AE 223 at 500 for $140. Still ended up out the door with more than a grand in just ammo/reload supplies.

Heard Reliable had long lineups so didn't go.

 

[VanMan]

Good idea on the dolly - definitely going to do that next time. Was originally just going to buy a 870 Express, but ended up buying a couple of cases of 12g target shotshells and a case of 22lr as well. That turned out to be a long walk back to the car

I brought a dolly to the sales at Reliable and Italian. Cases of 9mm/$200, cases of .22lr/$160.00. I bought 3 cases of each among other calibers. When I bought them I still had unopened cases sitting at home so I didn't really need to buy them. But I knew I would not see prices like that again all year. If I had known what would happen in the states I would have bought a lot more.

 

[joe-nwt]

What you are implying is obviously not correct. Supply is NOT coming in the same usual. Cabelas is down from 4 pallets per week to 1 and Phil from p&d has already laid out the challenges with supply he is experiencing.

Factories may be producing the same or more ammunition as always but the ammo that is coming to Canada is zero. What's in the supply chain is all that's left.

Critter's statement about people not shooting more and production being at capacity is 100% correct, you are just not applying it to the first step of the supply chain, which is the American hoarder. And then anything that does make it to Canada is apparently looked after by the Canadian hoarder. So yes, it is 100% correct. Panic buying is the cause of any shortage in Canada.

 

[harbl_the_cat]

I'd like to apologize to joe-nwt and many of the other folks who have a vehement disdain for "gouging."

I think we're all coming from a different perspective and debating different things - and I'd like to clear the air and see if we can reset a starting point where we all are on the same page as one another.

First, my apology, though, is if in expressing my opinions if I've offended anyone. I most certainly do not apologize for expressing myself - but if I took an approach that offensively touched upon anyone's sensibilities - that I apologize for most sincerely. It's not and never is my intent to use words as weapons.

To that point, and sticking JUST to the topic of "the ammunition situation." My opinion is there is never anything wrong with ammunition suppliers - be they businesses or individuals - ASKING for a specific price to sell their goods at. Even if it meets the criteria for what some would consider "gouging," the key differentiator, is sellers are not FORCING anyone to buy their goods - by setting a price for their goods, they are expressing their opinion of what they think the present value of those goods are. In the absence of force or fraud (as is the case with EVERY government provided good and service), it is then the prerogative of BUYERS to determine if they agree or disagree with the sellers opinion and act accordingly.

Of course, devoid of force or fraud on behalf of the seller, a buyer's opinion is entirely determined by their individual circumstances.

For example, as a buyer who has to organize and run a big youth program on behalf of my club, for which my club has set aside a certain budget, I have a certain opinion that is more willing to pay a higher price. Knowing that my club has little to no ammunition allocated for this program - my opinion under present market conditions is to try to find all the ammunition I need, while it's still available now, even if the price is slightly higher than what it was 3 months ago - and so my willingness as this kind of buyer to buy at a higher price is higher.

Conversely, as a buyer who is sitting on a large personal cache of ammunition I bought 3-12 months ago, my opinion is sellers who set prices exponentially higher are too high to motivate me to buy. Not being in a position where I personally need to obtain any more ammunition - I have a difference of opinion with those sellers and am thus not willing to buy any ammunition from them personally.

Again, I don't think there's anything wrong with sellers setting a price for their goods. To me, that's actually as sacred of a right as the right to express one's self or to associate with others. I may not like the prices those sellers set - but attacking the sellers for exercising this right, to me, is akin to attacking someone's right of speech for saying something offensive.

Furthermore, I think it's counter-intuitive and pointless to attack this right (sellers setting the price of their goods, aka - capitalism), but rather, exercising it personally is the best way to counteract those who do so in a disagreeable way.

For example, by changing my circumstances such that I do not need to turn to "gougers," I do more to stop them from "gouging" than any amount of ranting does. If I have 200 bricks of .22 bought at $25/brick, I'm not going to pay $80/brick - and the "gougers" are going to have to come down in price in order to attract me as a buyer. Furthermore, by my having $25/bricks and knowing "gougers" are charging $80/brick - I can position myself to charge $50/brick and start a price war, whereby in order to attract buyers, the other "gougers" also have to start coming down in price. Yes, I may make a 100% return on my ammo - but at the same time, prospective buyers who buy from me, as opposed to the other guy realize a 38% savings.

The claim has been made that by my "hoarding" the ammo at $25/brick, I created the supply shortage - but the reality is, I bought all my ammo on the retail side long before the spike in demand caused the shortages (I'll dig up the thread from about 6 months ago where I recommended others do the same). If you understand how retail works, big box retailers like Walmart and Canadian Tire only re-order ammunition when they've reached a certain threshold of inventory. I didn't create the supply shortage now by buying back then, if anything, my going out and making frequent bulk purchases when demand was low increased the rate at which those retailers were circulating in new inventory. This created supply dynamics for them to make reordering new ammunition a higher priority. If I hadn't gone out and bought tonnes of ammo last year, their then present inventory would have just sat on the shelf AND there would have been less available supply when the demand spiked now - exacerbating the shortage and perceived "gouging" situation.

Now, take me out from this equation entirely and what do you have? You have a monopoly, where a single enterprise who has ANY ammo has the sky's limit to set the price of ammo for. This is the reason health care is so expensive and of such poor quality in Canada - because the biggest provider of it has a near monopoly created through force and fraud.

This is why I don't consider myself part of the problem to high ammunition prices (which I agree is a problem), but a solution to it.

 

[ALBERTA BOY]

Critter's statement about people not shooting more and production being at capacity is 100% correct, you are just not applying it to the first step of the supply chain, which is the American hoarder. And then anything that does make it to Canada is apparently looked after by the Canadian hoarder. So yes, it is 100% correct. Panic buying is the cause of any shortage in Canada.

Like I said, what he was IMPLYING is obviously incorrect. His post reads that we don't need to buy and horde because people in Canada are not shooting any more than usual and the factories are producing at the same rate or higher. His post reads like a call to calm and it's not appropriate or correct.

It's a logical fallacy. You simply cannot ignore the elephant in the room which is the market in the USA.

Frankly, if we were all smart on this forum, we'd be piling it high. Canada will mirror what's happening in the USA in very short order, simply because there will be no resupply from south of the border.

 

[harbl_the_cat]

Like I said, what he was IMPLYING is obviously incorrect. His post reads that we don't need to buy and horde because people in Canada are not shooting any more than usual and the factories are producing at the same rate or higher. His post reads like a call to calm and it's not appropriate or correct.

It's a logical fallacy. You simply cannot ignore the elephant in the room which is the market in the USA.

Frankly, if we were all smart on this forum, we'd be piling it high. Canada will mirror what's happening in the USA in very short order, simply because there will be no resupply from south of the border.

I don't think many people here understand what "Just In Time" supply chain management is, how it works, and how EVERY industry in our society practices it (including the most critically important ones).

That alone (not understanding what it is) I think is just as frightening as the understanding of how that system actually works.

Here's a good start: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_in_time_(business)

The system summed up in one sentence:

No business maintains inventory greater than yesterday's demand indicates.

The scary part summed up in one sentence:

Everything from ammunition, to fuel, to food, to health care supplies, to physical cash at any point in time only has enough inventory to match yesterday's demand and any sudden or substantial increases in demand or minor disruptions in upstream supply infrastructure will create instantaneous shortages.

 

[bobdbldr]

WOW Harble, running off at the mouth like a soup sandwich!! ;0) JK, actually I think I understood most of what you said and its very interesting, I don't think we will be in any where near as bad a shape as the U.S. but prices will go up a bit for sure and very few sales will be seen. I agree that it will push the future 'normal" price up after things normalize. For those hatin on Harble,, look at it this way, We can only buy and store so much ammo due to space or cost, Harble and folks like him are storing it for you/us untill we need/want it. If the price is up he profits, as he should, his price for the ammo will be dictated by the market price! He will always be a bit cheaper than market due to factors such as cheaper shipping through our normal channels and our feeling of security buying from our normal sources. So Harble is just another source of ammo when we need it and will generally be cheaper than the going rate at the ammo stores! Win, Win!

 

[ALBERTA BOY]

I don't think many people here understand what "Just In Time" supply chain management is, how it works, and how EVERY industry in our society practices it (including the most critically important ones).

That alone (not understanding what it is) I think is just as frightening as the understanding of how that system actually works.

Here's a good start: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_in_time_(business)

The system summed up in one sentence:

No business maintains inventory greater than yesterday's demand indicates.

The scary part summed up in one sentence:

Everything from ammunition, to fuel, to food, to health care supplies, to physical cash at any point in time only has enough inventory to match yesterday's demand and any sudden or substantial increases in demand or minor disruptions in upstream supply infrastructure will create instantaneous shortages.

Cool story, bro

 

[critter928]

Like I said, what he was IMPLYING is obviously incorrect. His post reads that we don't need to buy and horde because people in Canada are not shooting any more than usual and the factories are producing at the same rate or higher. His post reads like a call to calm and it's not appropriate or correct.

It's a logical fallacy. You simply cannot ignore the elephant in the room which is the market in the USA.

Frankly, if we were all smart on this forum, we'd be piling it high. Canada will mirror what's happening in the USA in very short order, simply because there will be no resupply from south of the border.

A "call to calm" is what is needed, here and the US.

The US buying frenzy will hit a peak sooner than later (if it already hasn't) when all the shooters have purchased more than they can shoot in a lifetime, and all the first time shooters have "enough" ammunition to feed their new rifle/pistol/shotgun for the couple of times (if ever) they will take them out.

What will happen then is a glut in the system, and overstock shelves and lower sales numbers and drops in prices, just like we seen after 2008 and the last buying frenzy.

If shooters were using the supply as fast as it was being made, then my theory would not hold up. But when people are stockpiling (and hoarding), and the supply side is making it as fast as ever, then eventually there will be a over-supply in the system, which in this case will start in the end-users gun lockers, and then on store shelves when shooters are not buying new stock as they have plenty in their gun locker, and then in factory warehouses and eventually result in slowed down production lines. Prices will then fall once again as they have in 2008, and way every other time there is a perceived "crisis".

I have never in my life seen such a wide variety of choices in ammunition with some brands like Hornady making dozens of varieties of the same rounds, and them and CCI making novelty and specialty packaged boxes from "Zombie" rounds to "Swamp People" rounds. The variety alone is enough to make it look like "shortages" when some of the varieties can't keep up with demand. Federal military ammunition can ammo is another sign of having so much capacity that they even package in bulk and sell it well.

It is simple supply and demand. Supply is constant if not increasing, and demand is high now from first time buyers in the US (who bought guns like AR15s for the first time anticipating a ban and need to feed them) and long time shooters hoarding to protect their own supply or in hopes of turning a profit latter. However unless people are using all that they buy, eventually (very soon if not already) the demand will have been met and the supply will over run.

Harbl is right about "just in time" supply management. Not having warehouses makes it look bad when the store shelves are bare and take longer to refill, and creates a panic that there is a shortage (which is only very temporary). This creates a panic buying when it does hit the shelves again the next day. A self fulfilling prophecy. However, with this buying frenzy and hoarding the "warehouses" eventually become the hoarders gun rooms, and if they are not using it as fast as they buy it then they eventually have more supply then they need and will be taken out of the demand side and the store shelves will fill up again. The first time buyers of guns will eventually have all they feel they need and the casual shooters will have their own supply as well, and will not stop in the store "just in time" and buy on the way to the range or the annual hunt. The demand will drop as fast as it has risen. Then the store shelves will be overflowing.

This is a manufactured crisis not unlike a "bank run", and when the crisis passes, then supply will over floweth the shelves, thus sayeth the Critter.

 

[ALBERTA BOY]

Was in cabelas yesterday and the day before. They supposedly received their weeky shipment of ammo.

Someone on here said they had federal ammo cans in and were selling fast. If that was the case then they sold out fast as there were none left yesterday afternoon.

I monitor their ammo stock almost daily and they had a bit more 333s in stock and a few more cases if federal bulk. They didn't receive any wildcats.

Even directly after their weekly shipment, their 22 levels are still less than half what they normally are.

That's going into a busy long weekend (packed shoulder to shoulder) and before gopher season opens up.

I do think shelves will be bare at that point as stock is not able to keep up with current demand. Demand always peaks in gopher season and its an annual event for these stores to run out at that point. This year, there will simply be nothing to replace it.

If you want to shoot 22 this year, I'd suggest buying whatever you think you'll need for a year.

 

[harbl_the_cat]

A "call to calm" is what is needed, here and the US.

The US buying frenzy will hit a peak sooner than later (if it already hasn't) when all the shooters have purchased more than they can shoot in a lifetime, and all the first time shooters have "enough" ammunition to feed their new rifle/pistol/shotgun for the couple of times (if ever) they will take them out.

What will happen then is a glut in the system, and overstock shelves and lower sales numbers and drops in prices, just like we seen after 2008 and the last buying frenzy.

If shooters were using the supply as fast as it was being made, then my theory would not hold up. But when people are stockpiling (and hoarding), and the supply side is making it as fast as ever, then eventually there will be a over-supply in the system, which in this case will start in the end-users gun lockers, and then on store shelves when shooters are not buying new stock as they have plenty in their gun locker, and then in factory warehouses and eventually result in slowed down production lines. Prices will then fall once again as they have in 2008, and way every other time there is a perceived "crisis".

I have never in my life seen such a wide variety of choices in ammunition with some brands like Hornady making dozens of varieties of the same rounds, and them and CCI making novelty and specialty packaged boxes from "Zombie" rounds to "Swamp People" rounds. The variety alone is enough to make it look like "shortages" when some of the varieties can't keep up with demand. Federal military ammunition can ammo is another sign of having so much capacity that they even package in bulk and sell it well.

It is simple supply and demand. Supply is constant if not increasing, and demand is high now from first time buyers in the US (who bought guns like AR15s for the first time anticipating a ban and need to feed them) and long time shooters hoarding to protect their own supply or in hopes of turning a profit latter. However unless people are using all that they buy, eventually (very soon if not already) the demand will have been met and the supply will over run.

Harbl is right about "just in time" supply management. Not having warehouses makes it look bad when the store shelves are bare and take longer to refill, and creates a panic that there is a shortage (which is only very temporary). However, with this buying frenzy and hoarding the "warehouses" are now the hoarders gun rooms, and if they are not using it as fast as they buy it then they eventually will be taken out of the demand side and the store shelves will fill up again. The first time buyers of guns will eventually have all they feel they need and the casual shooters will have their own supply as well, and will not stop in the store "just in time" and buy on the way to the range or the annual hunt. The demand will drop as fast as it has risen. Then the store shelves will be overflowing.

This is a manufactured crisis not unlike a "bank run", and when the crisis passes, then supply will over floweth the shelves, thus sayeth the Critter.

Again, I completely agree with you and I think what you're describing is what I was saying months ago.

The thing about ammo is it's a scarce commodity with a market and, relative to other commodities - has a constrained supply. Even cranking out ammo as fast as they can, the ammo manufacturers cannot create as much new ammunition as the central banks of the world can create new currency - and that, I think is the more important fundamental about investing in ammunition (certainly more important than the short term panic buying).

I certainly don't personally think it's worth paying super high prices for ammo - but I don't think it's a bad idea to hold as much ammo as is practical (without going in debt to do so), when the price is low, levels off and/or comes down.

One of the nice things, for now, is ammo is scarce, but available in Canada not at outlandish, current American prices. Personally, that's why I'm an advocate of stocking up WHILE THE PRICES REMAIN LOW.

The going rate for the cheapest, decent .22 was $0.04-0.05/round in 2012. Personally, I think that's reasonable for personal, recreational use.

I do think ammo up here will have a short term upwards spike in price, and come down after. However, I don't envision ammo over a longer term (think years) will come back at or below that level unless some unimaginable changes happen.

 

[critter928]

Again, I completely agree with you and I think what you're describing is what I was saying months ago.

The thing about ammo is it's a scarce commodity with a market and, relative to other commodities - has a constrained supply. Even cranking out ammo as fast as they can, the ammo manufacturers cannot create as much new ammunition as the central banks of the world can create new currency - and that, I think is the more important fundamental about investing in ammunition (certainly more important than the short term panic buying).

I certainly don't personally think it's worth paying super high prices for ammo - but I don't think it's a bad idea to hold as much ammo as is practical (without going in debt to do so), when the price levels off and/or comes down.

One of the nice things, for now, is ammo is scarce, but available in Canada not at outlandish, current American prices. Personally, that's why I'm an advocate of stocking up WHILE THE PRICES REMAIN LOW.

The going rate for the cheapest, decent .22 was $0.04-0.05/round in 2012. Personally, I think that's reasonable for personal, recreational use.

I do think ammo up here will have a short term upwards spike in price, and come down after. However, I don't envision ammo over a longer term (think years) will come back at or below that level unless some unimaginable changes happen.

Just like any commodity, or investment, buy low and sell high. And never buy during an emotional run.

The price will come back down, and there will be lots of supply when it does and I say stack it deep then.

Then when the next "crisis" comes again (and it will) you have a supply you bought cheap and can even make a buck if you are so inclined.

I agree with your view on the prices going up over time, as with the way we print money and have deliberate targets for inflation that prices will always go up in the long run. Ammunition can be the same as PMs or real estate then, a store of wealth and inflationary hedge. Just not as convenient to carry around as some.

However, in the short and medium term, prices will rise (like now in a panic demand and buying frenzy), and will fall (when everyone has all they need and the store shelves overflow).

IMHO, now is not the time to be stacking deep, as that time was three months ago or will be this summer when prices are not influenced so much by irrational panic buying, and supply has met or exceeded demand. The caveat being if you can still get some good deals now (and they are still out there, like the Norinco 5.56, or some of the federal bulk packs when they are in), as those prices are still as low as they have been in years and will likely not go much cheaper.

 

[joe-nwt]

I'd like to apologize to joe-nwt and many of the other folks who have a vehement disdain for "gouging."

.

I never once mentioned that you were a gouger. But they say the skunk smells it's own hole first.



In order for you to be a gouger you would have to be part of limited availability of said product. You are not and my money says you never will be. I merely indicated that people "speculating" on the price/availability of ammo are part of the problem. And I have to ask; even if you do buy 20 bricks of ammo at $25 and sell it later at $50 (good luck, seriously) is this going to be a great achievement in your life? Is this going to push you towards retirement that much earlier?

If you are so economically superior to us mere sheep, shouldn't you be using your skills to some more lucrative endeavour?