ammo situation worsening.... and worsening..... and worsening ....... May 5, updated

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critter928 said:
How about a dose of reality from one of the major manufacturers to quell all these rumours;

http://www.hornady.com/support/availability


So please, everyone take it from the manufacturers putting out unprecedented supply into the system: step back, breathe, stop the fear mongering rumours, and relax. Don't hoard more in a panic market. You just fuel it more, and drive up the price irrationally to the market supply.
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Finally someone making some sense. Refreshing to see. Not many ppl are thinking the same way. Someone says the word ban and everyone freaks out like a nuclear bomb is falling from the sky.
 
hometownhero said:
Finally someone making some sense. Refreshing to see. Not many ppl are thinking the same way. Someone says the word ban and everyone freaks out like a nuclear bomb is falling from the sky.
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Well I personally don't think it's that outlandish of a thing to claim.

Obama and the dems are vehemently anti-gun, anti-constitution, and pro-UN.

Those three things alone should be very alarming, and unlike every other constitutional right that Americans don't exercise and allow to be stripped from them, it is VERY encouraging to know that Americans - including and especially those who took it for granted - are exercising their 2A rights, even to the point of paying a premium for it.
 
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Fear mongering by gun owners?...............what started all this? Gun owners? No. Government. I would rather have excess ammo if the shortage is shortlived, than no ammo if it isn't. We don't know what the future will be, but does anyone listen to Obama's speeches? He is on a mission.
 
It may be hoarders, it may be the gov, frankly, i dont give a #### why its happening, all i know is, shelves are empty and the product that does get put there is now at a higher price...thats all that matters to me.
 
Here's the results from a poll I ran here a few weeks back:

Who's worried about the ammo situation?

My world will end, I am not prepared. 3.44%

I may be inconvenienced. 18.44%

I'll be OK as long as it doesn't last more than a year. 31.88%

I can weather this, no problem.46.25%



Now first thing someone is likely to point out is that CGNers are not indicative of the gun owning population as a whole. And you would be correct. As I suggested earlier, the average gun owner in Canada is likely quite content to have a few boxes of ammo for hunting on hand, maybe a brick or two of 22lr. And quite possibly are not even considering buying ammo at this time of the year or are even aware of a shortage or price increase. So then where is all the ammo coming into Canada going? There was a normal supply sitting on the shelves a few weeks back and now it's gone. Where did it go?

Anybody think it's the 3.55% of CGNers that think their world is coming to an end? While they may be stocking up, the numbers certainly don't look sufficient to affect the supply of ammo coming into the country. Even if you couple the "may be inconvenienced" group in with then the numbers are still quite small.

So now we are left with the "good for a year" and "no problem" groups totaling 78%. These are the likely suspects, they already admit to having 1year+ of ammo on hand but must still buying quantities that affect the amount of ammo on the shelves.

Hoarders. The only explanation.

And there you have it, the world ammo situation according to joe-nwt.:p

You're welcome.;)
 
joe nwt. i voted i can weather the storm. that has absolutely nothing to do with reality. heck even Hornady has recognized a shortage and increased productio. to meet demand. that is about the loudest confirmation of a shortage cry i have heard to date. remember there are many new buyers that the ammo manufacturers were not previously selling to.
 
joe-nwt said:
Here's the results from a poll I ran here a few weeks back:

Who's worried about the ammo situation?

My world will end, I am not prepared. 3.44%

I may be inconvenienced. 18.44%

I'll be OK as long as it doesn't last more than a year. 31.88%

I can weather this, no problem.46.25%



Now first thing someone is likely to point out is that CGNers are not indicative of the gun owning population as a whole. And you would be correct. As I suggested earlier, the average gun owner in Canada is likely quite content to have a few boxes of ammo for hunting on hand, maybe a brick or two of 22lr. And quite possibly are not even considering buying ammo at this time of the year or are even aware of a shortage or price increase. So then where is all the ammo coming into Canada going? There was a normal supply sitting on the shelves a few weeks back and now it's gone. Where did it go?

Anybody think it's the 3.55% of CGNers that think their world is coming to an end? While they may be stocking up, the numbers certainly don't look sufficient to affect the supply of ammo coming into the country. Even if you couple the "may be inconvenienced" group in with then the numbers are still quite small.

So now we are left with the "good for a year" and "no problem" groups totaling 78%. These are the likely suspects, they already admit to having 1year+ of ammo on hand but must still buying quantities that affect the amount of ammo on the shelves.

Hoarders. The only explanation.

And there you have it, the world ammo situation according to joe-nwt.:p

You're welcome.;)
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There are a few points I disagree with, Joe, though I certainly appreciate your continued participation in the discussion and respect your opinion.

Firstly, is regional differences. Especially in urban vs rural areas. It is pretty evident that gun friendlier urban centres are experiencing tighter supply than rural centres or urban centres with more restrictive selective enforcement and I think this is best attributed to a radically different market dynamic.

Before I was in the business of making babies, for a few years, I was heavily involved with IDPA shooting for which I would easily shoot 50 rounds a week for personal practice, plus 100-150 rounds per week during my clubs holster night, plus 300-400 rounds per month, during the spring and summer on matches. I know many of the top competitors would do at least that or more - meaning a budget of 8000 - 10,000 rounds annually is what a pretty serious Action handgun shooter would allocate.

Lets say a more casual shooter would shoot half as much, 4000 - 5000 rounds. Even further down the line, a handgun plinker will keep around 1000 rounds (I just helped two friends source that much).

Thus, I partially disagree with your assertion that the majority of gun owners in Canada are low volume shooters who consume very little ammo, and even if they are, the small minority of action shooters account for an enormous volume of rounds down range, and free markets certainly are not democratic (and that's a good thing).

Now the second thing I disagree with is that the hoarders necessarily the drivers of the shortages we are experiencing. To clarify, good or bad, I will label the IPSC/IDPA/etc. shooters who buy thousands of rounds of ammo as the "hoarders," because we all are and we know it (by your definition above of "the majority" we certainly are).

Within my locale, and I believe in other action handgun rich communities, there was no noticeable thinning of available supply until about January. My wife and I regularly shop at Walmart, and I go to Canadian Tire on a weekly basis - and I ALWAYS check the ammo cages in both stores every time we go to either store.

I have thus far been focusing on .22's because they are the universal caliber that EVERY gun owner ends up with at some point. Controversial as it may sound, if you shoot guns and don't shoot some sort of .22, something is wrong with you. That being the case, I consider .22 ammo supply and availability to be a barometer of the sentiment in the gun and ammo market.

Now, there was no noticable shortage of .22 ammo in Canada until January, and after the 2008 - 2009 panic, I have been regularly been "hoarding" ammo when the prices came down and supply was abundant. In that time, I have never experienced supply disruptions of the magnitude I am seeing now. What changed?

Obama was reelected and in response to the seemingly weekly mass shootings and terrorist attacks, his administration has been very vocal about implementing stricter gun control measures. Add to that, the mainstream media, who we all know Is the bag of the US government, has been ramping up anti-gun sentiment none stop for the past 3-4 months. Just glance at the media and politic sections here on cgn.

The thing is, gun control ALWAYs comes up as an issue when a left wing government is trying to distract the general public from dismal economic reality. When a right wing governments in power, it generally is terrorism or war. Sometimes the two overlap.

If you follow financial and economic news, you will see there has not been more dismal economic news, especially for the US, in living memory. We are living through an economic depression that mirrors the 1920s, but the only difference is this time around, we have the Internet and we are not on a gold standard. As long as that reality continues, you are going to here more and more from the MSM and from the US government about gun control.

This, I believe, is the real driver of consumption habits in the gun and ammo markets. People who are scared the government is going to take their guns or gun rights are more apt to fight for them, and pay less or no attention to the fact that the government is actively taking away their wealth and standard of living.

This shortage is government created, not supply or demand created. The thing is, all markets in Western democratic countries are centrally planned - including and especially the gun and ammo markets.

Governments are NOT stupid in this regard - they are just evil - and I am completely certain this action in the gun and ammo market is engineered by the government for a very specific reason.
 
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JimDO said:
I just got back from the US last night. The ammo shortage seems to be all the buzz down there.
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It is not surprising there are shortages .. we are not in a "normal" time here with multiple drivers.. Internet, news, making most normal folks uneasy,.. So it's like when there was a "Toilet paper scare" years ago there was a rush and that was a "Normal" time.. We are in the "New Normal" now.
 
http://www.canadiangunnutz.com/foru...down-over-50&p=8590685&viewfull=1#post8590685

This thread spurred me to write this:

I posted this in BrotherJohnF's forum:

brotherjohnf.com/forum/Thread-Attacking-the-2nd-Amendment-to-save-the-banksters

Attacking the 2nd Amendment to save the banksters

Hi John,

I apologize for not being active in your forum or videos the past few months - life just got a bit busy - but I would like to thank you for staying vigilant and continue putting out the word about silver.

I have a deep way to go down the rabbit hole, and this could degenerate into a tinfoil conspiracy theory rant. It is quite long, and to your audience I apologize.

I will start by saying that I am a Canadian, but I am pro-gun, pro-silver, and pro-US Constitution.

To that end, I recall in 2008-2009 while working for a retail shooting range witnessing a massive panic in the gun community with the election of Barrack Obama during his first presidential term. Everyone in the Canadian gun community was crying "the sky is falling, Obama is going to ban all guns!" and for a while, there were massive shortages of guns and ammunition, with accompanying price increases. This of course, was just a reflection of the panic that was going on in the US gun community - which by many accounts was much worse.

At the same time, the 2008 global financial crisis started taking effect, and the price for silver especially was smashed to spectacular lows.

Ultimately, in the end, nothing meaningful in terms of gun laws came out from the 2008-2009 panic, but fast forward to Fall 2012:

Ron Paul, the only pro-constitution (and thus, pro-gun, pro-sound money) presidential candidate was forced by his own party out of the Presidential race, leaving Mitt Romney and Barrack Obama (both Goldman Sachs puppets) in the race. Both of whom had very dodgy records relating to gun rights.

With the re-election of Obama and several high profile mass shootings in Winter 2012, came unsurprisingly, massive calls by the Obama administration and the main stream media to attack the second amendment.

Having followed the gun market these past few months, both in Canada and the US, I have been watching as panicked US consumers and gun owners gobbled up everything gun related since December 2012.

I recall stories by word of mouth AND the mainstream media of .22 ammunition that once were $20 selling for $80, or .223 ammunition that previously sold for $0.30/round selling for as high as $1 per round, or no-inventory of ANY brand of AR-15 and aftermarket buyers upbidding the price of said rifles to be double to triple the pre-crisis price.

Last week, Obama's gun control measures failed to be passed.

Coincidentally while this crisis with the US gun and ammo market has unfolded, the price of silver has languished in the low $30 range, and just last week - having one of the largest price corrections in years. Personally, I have been saying all along that silver is a VERY compelling buy at these prices and that I personally was buying regularly.

I recall in you and other silver commentators’ videos and writings making the case that if the American general public started buying small amounts of silver, the entire paper market would collapse. Taking into consideration what we have seen over the past few months, there is a spectacular coincidence that when silver crashed in price, the US public's attention was captivated by threats of having their second amendment rights being threatened or taken away and their spending habits shifted accordingly.

This threat is enough to spur Americans to SPEND millions (perhaps BILLIONS) of US dollars, potentially going into debt to do so, to stockpile guns and ammo, INSTEAD of stockpiling silver bullion.

Knowing this phenomenon unfolded not just once, but twice, within the last five years, I think is very suspicious.

You and many other silver commentators have also made the claim (and I agree) that Western Democratic countries economies are entirely centrally planned. In one of your latest videos, you described it as a "fiat market" or a market where government proclamations create artificial supply shortages (and surpluses).

It seems to me that the situation with the gun and ammo market fits this description perfectly.

If this is the case, it is entirely possible that the powers that be (in government and banking) know full well how to jig the American public into consumer spending that creates artificial demand for a consumer asset, and thus for US currency. This spending at the same time diverts or reduces the ability of those same consumers to purchase the one asset that can protect them from this usurious abominable system.

Simply put - people who paid triple-quadruple the price for guns and ammo, had or have 1/3 or 1/4 as much fiat currency to trade for silver bullion.

What are your thoughts?

Thanks again, John,
HTC
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harbl_the_cat said:
There are a few points I disagree with, Joe, though I certainly appreciate your continued participation in the discussion and respect your opinion.

Firstly, is regional differences. Especially in urban vs rural areas. It is pretty evident that gun friendlier urban centres are experiencing tighter supply than rural centres or urban centres with more restrictive selective enforcement and I think this is best attributed to a radically different market dynamic.

Before I was in the business of making babies, for a few years, I was heavily involved with IDPA shooting for which I would easily shoot 50 rounds a week for personal practice, plus 100-150 rounds per week during my clubs holster night, plus 300-400 rounds per month, during the spring and summer on matches. I know many of the top competitors would do at least that or more - meaning a budget of 8000 - 10,000 rounds annually is what a pretty serious Action handgun shooter would allocate.

Lets say a more casual shooter would shoot half as much, 4000 - 5000 rounds. Even further down the line, a handgun plinker will keep around 1000 rounds (I just helped two friends source that much).

Thus, I partially disagree with your assertion that the majority of gun owners in Canada are low volume shooters who consume very little ammo, and even if they are, the small minority of action shooters account for an enormous volume of rounds down range, and free markets certainly are not democratic (and that's a good thing).

Now the second thing I disagree with is that the hoarders necessarily the drivers of the shortages we are experiencing. To clarify, good or bad, I will label the IPSC/IDPA/etc. shooters who buy thousands of rounds of ammo as the "hoarders," because we all are and we know it (by your definition above of "the majority" we certainly are).

Within my locale, and I believe in other action handgun rich communities, there was no noticeable thinning of available supply until about January. My wife and I regularly shop at Walmart, and I go to Canadian Tire on a weekly basis - and I ALWAYS check the ammo cages in both stores every time we go to either store.

I have thus far been focusing on .22's because they are the universal caliber that EVERY gun owner ends up with at some point. Controversial as it may sound, if you shoot guns and don't shoot some sort of .22, something is wrong with you. That being the case, I consider .22 ammo supply and availability to be a barometer of the sentiment in the gun and ammo market.

Now, there was no noticable shortage of .22 ammo in Canada until January, and after the 2008 - 2009 panic, I have been regularly been "hoarding" ammo when the prices came down and supply was abundant. In that time, I have never experienced supply disruptions of the magnitude I am seeing now. What changed?

Obama was reelected and in response to the seemingly weekly mass shootings and terrorist attacks, his administration has been very vocal about implementing stricter gun control measures. Add to that, the mainstream media, who we all know Is the bag of the US government, has been ramping up anti-gun sentiment none stop for the past 3-4 months. Just glance at the media and politic sections here on cgn.

The thing is, gun control ALWAYs comes up as an issue when a left wing government is trying to distract the general public from dismal economic reality. When a right wing governments in power, it generally is terrorism or war. Sometimes the two overlap.

If you follow financial and economic news, you will see there has not been more dismal economic news, especially for the US, in living memory. We are living through an economic depression that mirrors the 1920s, but the only difference is this time around, we have the Internet and we are not on a gold standard. As long as that reality continues, you are going to here more and more from the MSM and from the US government about gun control.

This, I believe, is the real driver of consumption habits in the gun and ammo markets. People who are scared the government is going to take their guns or gun rights are more apt to fight for them, and pay less or no attention to the fact that the government is actively taking away their wealth and standard of living.

This shortage is government created, not supply or demand created. The thing is, all markets in Western democratic countries are centrally planned - including and especially the gun and ammo markets.

Governments are NOT stupid in this regard - they are just evil - and I am completely certain this action in the gun and ammo market is engineered by the government for a very specific reason.
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Let me recap this if I may.

The shooting disciplines are not shooting significantly more than they were pre-shortage times when supply was able to keep up with demand.

Our gun laws in Canada have not changed significantly recently.

The major change to the supply coming across the border is a price increase.

And the government has caused this shortage on the shelves?

I understand completely.
 
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harbl. good post. but to protect that silver you need what? silver was a currency the world once understiod but many noe dont. those same folk understand guns and ammo currency is my guess. walk down main street with a buck of silver or a bucket of guns and ammo and see which is sold first.
 
dizzy said:
harbl. good post. but to protect that silver you need what? silver was a currency the world once understiod but many noe dont. those same folk understand guns and ammo currency is my guess. walk down main street with a buck of silver or a bucket of guns and ammo and see which is sold first.
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Sorry, but more people understand the value of a known commodity such as a PM like silver, than know what the value of any gun is over another.

The mere fact that even in those interested in buying and selling guns can have the same gun be worth multiple times its real value based on where it is purchased and by whom tells you the it is nowhere near the same commodity (a gun on Jane and Finch can sell for 10 times the purchase price at a gun show in Texas, not so for an once of silver).

And in 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% of scenarios, that bucket of silver has far more value to a much wider range of buyers than a "bucket of guns and ammo". And in that .000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% of scenarios once the person already has a gun and ammo, the value of the subsequent ones goes way down and the value of that silver remains.

And in 99.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% of scenarios and at every moment leading up to that .000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% scenario guns and ammo are preferred walking down the street with a "bucket of guns and ammo" to sell will bring you attention from society and the law you won't get with the silver.

Even in the real SHTF scenarios the world has ever seen, like WWII, currency collapses in Zimbabwe, Argentina, the Balkans, or even Somalia today, the market for a bucket of silver is and has been larger than that for some guns and ammo.

So PM's appeal to more people in more circumstances than guns and ammo ever will or has as a commodity. If you are banking on that one in a billion scenario where PM's are useless and the gun reigns supreme, good on you and I will leave you to your fantasy land.
 
joe-nwt said:
Let me recap this if I may.

The shooting disciplines are not shooting significantly more than they were pre-shortage times when supply was able to keep up with demand.

Our gun laws in Canada have not changed significantly recently.

The major change to the supply coming across the border is a price increase.

And the government has caused this shortage on the shelves?

I understand completely.
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I think it's pretty obvious that the second the US president has a fart that sounds like "ban guns," it will set off a fire storm of buyers south of the border.

It is this firestorm of panic buying that causes the shortages, but again, the trigger that sets if off is declarations by the government.

The two are related, but ask the question, if NO announcement is made by the US federal government concerning guns, there is no panic. Consider the last half of Obamas first term. There was the initial panic that coincided almost perfectly to the financial meltdown, but once the Fed started monetizing the debt to bail out the banks, there was absolutely no announcements relating to guns and the market calmed down somewhat.

Personally, I think barring anything like a bankruptcy of a big US bank, I doubt there will be any proposed gun control measures in the US, and I think the ammo situation will start to stabilize.
 
No that the gun control stuff is 'off the table' things are returning to normal in the USA. One gun forum I am on down there people were saying how quiet it was in the "stores" no line ups.
 
harbl_the_cat said:
I think it's pretty obvious that the second the US president has a fart that sounds like "ban guns," it will set off a fire storm of buyers south of the border.

It is this firestorm of panic buying that causes the shortages, but again, the trigger that sets if off is declarations by the government.

The two are related, but ask the question, if NO announcement is made by the US federal government concerning guns, there is no panic. Consider the last half of Obamas first term. There was the initial panic that coincided almost perfectly to the financial meltdown, but once the Fed started monetizing the debt to bail out the banks, there was absolutely no announcements relating to guns and the market calmed down somewhat.

Personally, I think barring anything like a bankruptcy of a big US bank, I doubt there will be any proposed gun control measures in the US, and I think the ammo situation will start to stabilize.
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But we are talking about the ammo "shortage" in Canada. What ever the reason south of the border, realistically should have no effect on ammo on the shelves here.
 
trebor2880 said:
Unless it's ammo that's coming from south of the border.
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Well a few weeks back there was a "normal" supply of ammo on the shelves at the major outlets. A supply that normally would have lasted quite a while. This supply has disappeared in short order. And it's not because of government threats or changes to our gun laws.
 
tmccrank said:
How can it not? It's not as though there's a dedicated manufacturing process for every country. We all buy from the same manufacturers.
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Any evidence the manufacturers are sending us less?

That they will not be sending us more in the future?

P&D just said they seen this coming and increased orders two and three times normal to meet the demand, yet people here are buying in larger quantities requiring mechanical help to get it to their vehicles.

So what rationale reasoning is causing our panic buying and hoarding here, other than some here beating the fear mongering drum over future supply problems that have no basis in fact?

Do you believe the American's will not sell to us in the future, or will not be able to meet our demand?

Once again, I point you to a time when we have more choice than ever for what we buy, and in larger retail packaging than ever. So what is causing people here to hoard other than catching the same case of irrational fear-mongering that is going on in the US?

You know the one in the US where one of the biggest manufactures in the business, Hornady, thinks is irrational and based on baseless rumours;

The current political climate has caused extremely high demand on all shooting industry products, including ours. Empty retail shelves, long backorders, and exaggerated price increases on online auction sites – all fueled by rumors and conjecture – have amplified concerns about the availability of ammunition and firearms-related items.
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We are doing it to ourselves, and if our demand causes price increases to meet it, it will be our own fault.

In the meantime, I will sit back, breathe, and wait for the hoarders to run out of money and then enjoy the sales.
 
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