An easy way to tell would be to shoot a few 5 or more shot groups. Are all but one round per group in a 1/2" circle, with one flier? Is the flier consistent in how far it flies and does it fly in the same direction? I can't speak for all rifles, but in my experience my cold bore shots are repeatable. I know my 6.5 when clean/cold will shoot .75 MOA high and .5 MOA to the left. It settles back down to zero on the fourth shot. When it's dirty/cold, it shoots .5 MOA high and .25 MOA to the left. Settles back to zero after five shots. My other rifles have all had similar POI changes for cold bore. Variations of 2" - 7" for a cold bore shot seems extreme in my experience.
IMHO, i'd say you have far too many variables in play to really diagnose any issues with your groups. I'd recommend bringing it back to 100y where you could clearly see the finer lines of the target even at 7x on your scope. Get yourself either on a bench or prone, with a solid front rest of some sort and a good rear support that will really let you hold zero perfectly. If you're comfortable and relaxed when pulling the trigger, and feel its perfect every time you shoot under those conditions, you'll start to see trends that can tell you what your rifle is capable of.
