The first round from a clean bore will typically be faster. While it may seem counterintuitive, the reason for this is friction. About eight years ago, Jerry Halcomb, a successful American BR shooter, explained why this occurs.
The first shot going high is likely caused by the increased surface friction of the clean barrel as evidenced by the a substantially higher velocity observed with a chronograph. Variation in the bore surface friction dramatically alters the pressure under the curve which drives the acceleration, velocity and ultimately the timing of the bullet exit with the pressure wave traveling back and forth on the barrel. This is particularly important in the first few inches of bullet acceleration. Depending on how dry and rough the barrel is, it can be as high as 50 FPS above average. Sometimes you can actually hear the supersonic crack even though the ammo is subsonic. The next round will not do this. If the bore is properly pre-lubed, this effect can be greatly reduced or even eliminated.
See post #6 here h ttps://www.rimfireaccuracy.com/Forum/index.php?threads/clean-bore-shot-location.26535/
When a first round goes through a bore in which the fouling has dried and hardened, it may experience something similar to what's described above.
The friction experienced by the first round means it doesn't accelerate the same way as subsequent rounds will. While the faster first round will usually strike higher than those that follow, it may also deviate from a predictable trajectory because of the change in acceleration and it's potential effect on barrel harmonics. When shooting through a fouled bore, rounds will accelerate similarly to their ultimate MV.
The takeaway from this?
First, season the bore with fouling shots before shooting for score. Shoot only for score with fresh, wet fouling. Second, anticipate drying and hardening fouling if shooting is suspended. If safe and permitted, shoot foulers intermittently to keep the fouling in the bore fresh and wet. Alternatively try one of the suggestions made in the video.