Well Steve, none of us can really give an definitive answer. It would take a massive, scientific study to determine the many variables you threw out there.
We can go by what we know has happened.
Many years ago in Manitoba some men were working on a road in the winter. A moose appeared in an opening a 1/4 mile away. One of the workers, a Native, said he would bring his rifle the next day and if the moose came back, he would shoot him. The fellow came next day with a 44-40 and as if on schedule, the moose appeared. The Native aimed, shot and a bit later the moose stumbled and then went down. This is a true story, but I write it without further comment.
I am dead ceratin of all the facts in the following. A very good hunter and excellent shot with his 32 Winchester Special, was getting a load of hay from his haystack in a field, with his team and sleigh. He pitched a load of hay on the rack, got on the load to go, when a cow moose appeared just off the end of the field. He said he knew the hay stack was 300 yards from the end of the field and the moose was about thirty yards into the scrub. He layed down on his load of hay, held for what he thought it would drop in 330 yards, fired and killed the moose.
In each of these cases ballistic tables would show that neither bullet had the neccessary power to kill a moose, especially the 44-40. But the moose didn't know this, so they just died.
Who can answer your question?