My understanding :::: A bullet that is “off course” by 1” at 100yds will be close to 2” “off course” at 200yd (could be a little less >low>gravity) (could be up to 0.1 off>cyclonic/geoscopic swirl) ...assuming no wind drift. Vertically - NO Horizontally YES
If the barrel movement was upwards, the slower bullets will be aimed higher. If the slow bullets printed higher at 100, they will fall back into the group somewhere down range. So a 3 minute group at 100 might be a 1 or 2 minute group at a longer range.
A bullet that is rotationally stable as it exits the muzzle typically remains stable during its trajectory as velocity bleeds off more quickly than the rate of rotation. YES
If the “smaller groups at distance” is valid, it should happen with every same twisted bullet at the same velocity, etc? NO. Barrel whip can be affected by acceleration, even though the exit velocity is the same.
All other things being equal, the explanation is more likely related to parallax? YES. Parallax can screw up groups at a given distance.