Milsurp price insanity

Ive been meaning to get a 1903 Springfield for the longest time, few years when I was just getting into this stuff my friend and I found one at a store for 900, we pooled our money and couldnt afford it on our post high school grocery store wages, now im seeing the darn things selling for like 2600! I like to think getting my USGI Garand was a steal for like 2000 now seeing the danish ones go for 2600, and yall are talking about 500$ Garands!? Sure makes the barrier of entry for collecting high.
 
When I started about 9-10 years ago the market was completely different. Most milsurps were in the 300-500$ range and people were a lot more willing to buy/sell/trade then they are today. I was literally buying/selling/trading at least one rifle a month. Now everyone is holding on to whatever they have as though it were the crown jewels and what little comes up for sale tends to be at extreme prices and lesser condition. The prices also don’t seem to reflect quality in them as a low end example tends to sell for the same price as a higher end example of the same firearm.

The net result is I don’t buy much anymore as by time you have started to do your homework and verify if the item is worth what is being asked it has already sold. When it was cheaper it was more fun, you got to experience more and if you sold something and wanted another of the same model it usually wasn’t difficult to buy another.

I wouldn’t start collecting today if I was to start from scratch, simply too pricy. Even now I tend to only buy when I see a good deal. To each their own, but I suspect much like the housing market one of these days the floor is going to fall out and that will be the time to buy again.
 
Eagle17, I've heard that exact same story and argument for well over 50 years.

Back in the day when the average person could walk into any hardware store/service station/Army Navy/Eaton's/Hudson's Bay, Sears and a long list of other places and purchase several different marks of Lee Enfields, Lee Metfords, Krags, Mausers etc, starting at $5 when they were on sale and $10 when they weren't, new or ftr in grease, jammed into boxes, in crates, sprawled over sales tables, you couldn't give one away, unless it had been "sporterized" Then it was worth another $10 on top of store price.

When commercial rifle manufacturers finally got around to mass producing their offerings, at a price that was close to, or even less than what it cost to "sporterize" a milsurp, people quit cutting them up.

They aren't cheap any longer, because there are a lot more people interested in them as collectors and shooters. There are also way larger populations all over the world that are interested in them.

The prices may "dip" once in a while, for a very short time, but unless they're all declared "prohibited" they will continue to just be investments.

I sold a 1950 Long Branch new in grease (he didn't believe it at first) to a very nice fellow at the last Vernon Gun Show for a good price. That same rifle, even now that he's shot it, would easily sell for 25+% more than I sold it for.

The days of cheaper than dirt milsurps has been over for a long time. Just like surplus ammunition. Other than Chinese, which most of seems to be relatively current manufacture commercial in milsurp guise, it's drying up, other than the drips and drabs gleaned off gun show tables.

I have to chuckle a bit when I hear someone bragging they "scored" 100 rounds of whatever for under a buck a shot.

I'm still shooting stuff I bought for less than a nickel per round.

Just came across a 500 count, sealed can of US 1945/3 dated 45acp. No price on it, but it's the last of two 50k round pallets.

I remember getting them on a bid at an auction in Florida. I was down there on business anyway and had my Dodge 3/4 ton, so it wasn't a big deal for me to haul it home. The folks at Customs never even blinked.

I paid under a thousand dollars for both pallets, taxes and auction fees in. That was a lot of money back then, 1970, about half as much as my new Dodge Fargo cost me.

Those sealed cans, with WWII dates are hard to find now. Sadly most guys just want to buy it to shoot. That's why I've still got it.

Makes a great door stop and conversation piece as well.
 
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Here's a snapshot of relative change in prices - a screen capture of the old Ellwood Epps web page from one day back in 2009. I took the snap as I bought the SMLE second from the top (I still have it). As a side note, back in those days, aside from price differential, the number of milsurps that showed up each day on the Epps site was a lot higher, as you might gather from the fact that they had a distinct "Military Rifles" section, and this was the second page of it.

Epps2ndWindow.jpg
 

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People complaining about the prices of the firearms of which the production stopped 70 years and longer. Ok, I get it...or maybe not. Now look at the prices of the Savage Axis rifles that are still in production and compare them with the prices from 2015. They are twice what they used to be and sometimes these are 2.5 times more expansive. When I used to work part time in Cabela's behind the gun counter we were constantly selling them for $300-350 a piece back then. Now these are $600-700 rifles and still in production. They will be around for a long time. Not exactly the same situation with the surplus market...and it's reflected in pricing. It's not exactly surprising that the market for these, old guns is changing. All that being said, one can find some excellent examples of the surplus rifles relatively inexpensive...but one has to act quickly and get lucky sometimes.
 
I think the cheapest milsurp rifles have given the best return. The svt-40 has gone up more as a percentage then a matching K98 from what I see. Even the sks. The Lee-enfield has been the greatest gainer. And arguably the most common here in Canada.
 
It is true the prices have gone up, but they have also gone up in a ludicrous manner in the last couple years. I think we are in a bubble much like the housing market. Higher end examples I can see retaining their value well as there is genuinely significantly less of them out there, but it is the lower end examples that I see the market dropping on. It only takes a bit of a recession (which our economy looks a lot like it did before the 18% interest rates of the 70s and 80s) and all of the toys come up for sale to make ends meet.

The housing market will likely trigger it, the toy/collector markets will then follow.
 
I’ve bought several SMLE/No.4’s before this last OIC for on average of $8-900/ea. Now the value of my collection has literally doubled, sorta good for me if I want to sell. But, I’m into collecting them and the prices are getting a bit out of control. I hope post Covid that they return to a somewhat reasonable price, but not to pre-Covid prices
 
I had a friend, now passed some 25 year ago who was in the air force in WWII and afterwards. He said that for six months after the war he and a bunch of others loaded DC 3's with surplus .303, flew out over the St. Lawrence and pushed it out as a means of disposal. He said the airfield was line both side with millions and millions of rounds. Our tax dollars at work.
 
Eaglelord17 said:
It is true the prices have gone up, but they have also gone up in a ludicrous manner in the last couple years. I think we are in a bubble much like the housing market. Higher end examples I can see retaining their value well as there is genuinely significantly less of them out there, but it is the lower end examples that I see the market dropping on. It only takes a bit of a recession (which our economy looks a lot like it did before the 18% interest rates of the 70s and 80s) and all of the toys come up for sale to make ends meet.

The housing market will likely trigger it, the toy/collector markets will then follow.
Click to expand...

As it was in the past, it will only be a temporary dip.
 
*lawrence said:
I had a friend, now passed some 25 year ago who was in the air force in WWII and afterwards. He said that for six months after the war he and a bunch of others loaded DC 3's with surplus .303, flew out over the St. Lawrence and pushed it out as a means of disposal. He said the airfield was line both side with millions and millions of rounds. Our tax dollars at work.
Click to expand...

There were all sorts of those stories told. I've had problems verifying them though.

I did verify one shipment of rifles, ammo that were dumped off the coast of Vancouver Island, that were supposed to be shipped to a nation that had been an ally during WWII. I guess it was a way of getting rid of the evidence????

Just keep in mind, very few people wanted that ammo or the rifles and it was cheaper to dump them, than it was to sell them off.

I was at several military auctions, both in and out of country where there was a minimum starting bid.

That minimum starting bid was the break even point, where it would be cheaper to scrap the materials than go through the process of selling it out of service.

I often noticed lots where not one bid was rendered. Often the ammo was of questionable quality, sometimes poor storage and sometimes salvaged from wrecks that were being removed/destroyed because they were in shallow water and posed shipping hazards.

The other issue was worn out or captured stocks of firearms. For instance, there was a lot of firearms at a Nevada sale that consisted of close to a thousand "civilian" firearms that had been "loaned" to the State of Nevada because they couldn't procure enough suitable firearms for their Civil Guard, when the US decided which side it wanted to support during WWII.

It was a hodge/podge of everything that shot cartridges. All of it was JUNK. It wasn't JUNK when it was donated. The State Armory had taken everything that was offered, as long as it was in working order and chambered for metalic cartridges. They went through them all and took what would be useable for them, as far as training, arming guards etc.

The rest were quite literally thrown into large boxes and looked like they may have been stored outside.

Everyone was curious about them but no one wanted to pay the minimum bid. The risk was just to great of losing every dime spent on them. This auction happened in 1966, so those rifles had been poorly stored for over 25 years, in the elements.
 
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I really dont think that the prices of these rifles are going to improve any time soon. These rifles are just old and more rare than they were 30, 20 or even 10 years ago, and there still seems to be enough demand for them, with a dwindling supply which will make prices even worse. I also saw this at the last company I worked at. When the oilfield got hit the company started selling their products for much less than fair value to try and keep work. When things recovered they kept the low prices cause that customers got used to paying. I kindof fear the same thing for milsurp to is that people will get used to selling for such high prices and people get used to paying those prices.Even if the bubble does burst and prices go down, the increased demand to buy will shoot them right back up. The supply isnt going to change, these things arent manufactured anymore and then who is to say that these are going to be even legal in the next 5 years.
 
Who is buying these expensive milsurps anyways? Younger or older people?
I look around my gun club and don’t see very many young shooters let alone young collectors with deep pockets.
 
Buckmastr said:
Who is buying these expensive milsurps anyways? Younger or older people?
I look around my gun club and don’t see very many young shooters let alone young collectors with deep pockets.
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I really dont know who is buying these but they do seem so sell so the demand must be somewhere.

I would want to say a bit of young and old I know several people of my age who absolutely love surplus rifles but in all fairness I claim responsibility for getting them bit with that bug so I may be biased.

All the older guys I know I would call actual collectors, most of the young shooters (that I know) just appreciate something that has historic value but also practical shooters use, they arent as "hardcore" as the older guys and are happy with 1 or 3 surplus firearms (providing they can afford) compared to actual collectors who will have like 20 different dewats, and all the papers to go with them.
 
Normally I don't complain about prices on such things... but looking at the Milsurp EE this morning makes me wonder if some folks weren't drinking and posting last night.
I can appreciate that the value has gone up on milsurp...but jeez, 1200 - 1400 for relics...I'm struggling with that.
Totally within their rights...of course.
Got a burned up matching 1943 Sauer K98 up on the exposed beam in my living room. Should be worth at least 1500 now!
 
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