Milsurp's Future Value

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mike12

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Just a thought, as the baby boomers and Vets pass on, what will become of all these old war relics? I suspect we'll loose some to the wifes turning them in but assuming they go back out into the market, will that not devalue our collections. I can't imagine this is an interest that many younger guns enthusiasts are taking up.
 
I suppose we shouldn't be surprised but a great many folks who are current target shooters and hunters aren't aware that Milsurp rifles are still available. Ammo isn't readily available for most, they aren't available in the big box stores and the one they have seen was the Enfield Uncle Bubba hacked the front end of of back in 1970.

I have a legal sized poster I put up @ the post office and on Farmer's market days with pictures of Mausers and Enfields with an offer to buy unwanted firearms. Results have been mixed but I have saved a few from the trunk of an RCMP cruiser.
 
depends on the rifle. WWII was the single largest event in history. artifacts from it (ie rifles) will always command interest, especially those in really nice condition.

junk will still be junk though.

lots of soviet stuff on the market. uncommon dates and interesting markings will be in demand for MN (i think). SKS's will go up, but not that much (i guarantee this since i have tucked away an excellent condition, pinned on the follower SKS).
 
I had my own thoughts regarding the future of milsurp collecting.

I figure it this way. Theres three groups of people. Old(dying in the next 10years, middle dying in 10-25, and young, dying in 40-50 years. In order for this to make sense, you need to relaize that i place little faith in the youngest generation. They dont seem to care about history or anything other then ipods and drugs and ###. And im only just 28. I know there will be some. who follow after their fathers or whatever but by and large i think the kids dont care. So....

So all vets and alot of advanced collectors are in the first group.when the time comes there will still be a large market between the other two groups. Later when the second group starts to go, based on paragraph 1s prediction there will be fewer new collectors and more(baby boomers in the 2nd dying group)collectors passing that there should be, based on my theory, if not a price drop, at least an increase in availability. And based on new retarded laws, who knows. Maybe price drops depending on what you can and cant shoot. just my .02
 
CanadianAR said:
I had my own thoughts regarding the future of milsurp collecting.

I figure it this way. Theres three groups of people. Old(dying in the next 10years, middle dying in 10-25, and young, dying in 40-50 years. In order for this to make sense, you need to relaize that i place little faith in the youngest generation. They dont seem to care about history or anything other then ipods and drugs and ###. And im only just 28. I know there will be some. who follow after their fathers or whatever but by and large i think the kids dont care. So....
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I agree with you, and I am 25. I find that the biggest problem nowadays is that they little fockers don't have respect. I work in a recreation complex (an arena) and the biggest culprits are the ones who are 16-18. These are the ones who should be becoming more respectful, as they are on the cusp of being adults, but it seems like they are regressing. Sometimes I just want to backhand some of them, but I have to bite my tongue and walk away.

My only hope is the save a bunch of them (rifles) from the big melting pot, for as long as I can.

My $0.02
 
I disagree, actually. Based on my experiences working in a gun shop, I think that, although there may be fewer gun owners in this generation than the last, more of them are interested in milsurp. I attribute it to the decline in hunting and the popularity of WW2 movies and video games. Of anything I think youre going to notice proportionally fewer dedicated hunters than milsurp collectors.
 
^^ good point. Thanks the Band of Brothers, Saving Private Ryan, The Pacific and Call of Duty, the price of milsurps have gone up. Especially american ones; (ie the Garand) have quadrupled in the last ten years. I remember reading a buddies SIR mail order from 2001 or 2002 and there was Garand for less then $300. Good luck finding one for sub $1000 now.

Damn it, I just turned this into an "I remember when" thread.
 
I suppose, but is it a fad or not? Kids dont have attention spans either these days. lol. When the next thing comes around who knows.
Its just so damn hard to tell the future. lol
 
mike12 said:
Just a thought, as the baby boomers and Vets pass on, what will become of all these old war relics? I suspect we'll loose some to the wifes turning them in but assuming they go back out into the market, will that not devalue our collections. I can't imagine this is an interest that many younger guns enthusiasts are taking up.
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I'm not seeing too many $99 Garands these days or $49 Johnsons! I'm really looking for a $179 M1C and M1D.

(Source: Rick the Cosmic Determiner! ;)) This will tell you the future value of future milsurp prices on the TSX and NYSE:

Y = 1.3e^3(theta)
 
Milsurp is wildly popular here. Back in the 90s I know most of the older people had some rifle that was from "the war" but no one really used them except maybe for hunting or collecting dust. Nowadays you see Mosins, SKS, Mausers, M1 carbines, and other stuff for sale everywhere. Low price is a major selling point and so is the history. I can't see it lasting forever though as we are restricted to basic bolt action rifles and very few of the semi auto rifles(I think SVT is banned for example) so eventually we will run out of "new" milsurp guns and some of the ammo is getting hard to find(303 brit, 7.5 french, 6.5 caracano, 7.7 jap, etc) and new production ammo is too expensive for plinking.
 
Some will get turned in, some passed down, and some for consignment sale at the local shop. One day a single guy will own all the prohibs that weren't turned in. When he dies they will be gone. No government will repeal those laws.
 
Nyles said:
I disagree, actually. Based on my experiences working in a gun shop, I think that, although there may be fewer gun owners in this generation than the last, more of them are interested in milsurp. I attribute it to the decline in hunting and the popularity of WW2 movies and video games. Of anything I think youre going to notice proportionally fewer dedicated hunters than milsurp collectors.
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The demographics of gun owners are definitely changing. The once typical owner of maybe one centrefire rifle, one .22 rimfire, and one shotgun is becoming less common. More and more people own guns for other uses besides hunting, be they collecting or various forms of recreational shooting.

My prediction is that values of original configuration milsurps will at least keep pace with inflation in the long run, with the more desirable ones (e.g. K98s, Garands, etc) easily outpacing that. Other classes of collectible guns haven't gone down in value over time as their owners passed on and their collections came into the market, so why should 20th century milsurps be any different?

I think that a more interesting question is that of which, if any, of today's guns are likely to be desirable collectables in the future.
 
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You also have to consider the past to see the road to the future. Many rifles are no longer surplus and the value has gone up considerably. While some mountains of rifles are still being discovered, along with their respective surplus ammunition. Garands are no more to be found and the prices have risen, but is that a guarantee that South Korea won't let go of their hidden supplies? Twenty years ago, Enfeilds were selling for a hundred bucks, but they are only 300 now. In twenty years, most things have gone up 3 times the value. SKS rifles were between one and two hundred bucks, They are still that today. In 1990 i had to work ten to twenty hours to pay for an SKS. Now i work less than four hours to pay for one. Marstar sells a $75 dollar SKS when you buy ammo that you were going to shoot anyway. It seems to me that SKS Rifles are substantially cheaper by todays standards than they were twenty years ago. A Mosin rifle was 79 bucks in 1993, they are 100 bucks today.


My point is: twenty years ago, we made predictions of what was available in "our" world. Eastern European countries who were not part of our world then, certainly are today. Hundred dollar rifles from Russia? who could have known? How many more are there and how much more ammunition? Who can be so sure that there are no more stashes of Lee Enfeilds and a mountain of .303 ammo will never come up for sale? Pakistan, India, Turkey, Korea, Maybe even North Korea in another 25 years. How much do these little countries have stashed away? we've seen pictures from Libya and other North African and Arab countries, they have masses of weapons and ammo stashed away. United Nation policies are, after all, simple niceties, but does anyone actually completely comply?


Just when you think everything has been sold, something shows up.
 
2014 will be the 100 year anniversary of the beginning of WW1, it will also be the 75th anniversary of the beginning of WW2, then we have over the next 6 years the 100th & 75th anniversarys of all the battles/events of the 2 wars, with all the publicity of these events plus any movies, documentaries etc during this time, i would expect the demand for any item associated with WW1 & WW2 to increase, & with it the value.

Buy, buy, buy it NOW!
 
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