(BTW I like the airplane in your avatar..! I never got a chance to fly one with big wheels like that, they always looked like a lot of fun)
Using correct data, you should be able to match your results to about a quarter of a MOA (i.e. well under 2" at 500 yards), out to 600 yards. At longer distances (800y, 1000y) you can usually match to a bit better than one MOA.
Here are a few possibilities that would explain your rifle having more drop than predicted:
- your Chrony is reporting too high a speed. If set up properly (level and straight), and fired using decent lighting conditions, this isn't terribly likely.
- your bullet has a worse BC than published. Unlikely though.... JBM's library indicates a b.c. of 0.588(G1), which predicts 34.4" drop at 500y (and sea level atmospherics). If I run the same calc using a BC of 0.52(G1), then a 35.7" drop at 500y is predicted. This is not nearly big enough of an effect.
- How do you know the target you shot at was 500 yards? If you taped it, or lasered it, then I would say that it is; but if you didn't personally establish the distance, this would be my prime suspect. If the target was actually at 525 yards, the bullet drop is calculated to be 40.0".
- How accurately was your rifle zeroed at 100? (and, was it 100 yards or 100 metres?). How many shots did you fire at 100 in order to establish that your rifle was sighted in 2 inches high? If you didn't fire enough shots in order to accurately locate the centre of your group at 100, it is possible that your rifle was actually sighted in 1.25" high (in which case, it is sighted in 3/4 MOA lower than you expect it to be... and so the bullet at 500 yards would be 3/4 MOA lower, which is 3.75" lower than you would expect)
- How many shots did you fire at 500 yards? How big was that group? Unless you've fired a number of shots to prove otherwise, it is quite conceivable that your rifle is shooting a 2 MOA group at 500 yards (BTW a perfectly respectable and usable accuracy figure for a long range big game hunting rifle, 90% of Internet chat notwithstanding). If you fired only a single shot at 500 yard, it is quite possible that it might have been the lowest or highest shot in your group - in other words, your group's centre could have been 5" higher than the location of that one shot. If you fired a 3 shot group, the centre of your group is *much* better established than with just a single shot, but it is still quite possible that the actual group centre is several inches away from the centre of your 3-shot group.