Well, I was going to shoot an ORPS and NRL22 match today. I can report my experience of attempting to shoot in -30C, I withdrew after 2 rounds. Everything seemed fine at sight in, MV just 20fps slower than in normal temperature. I hit nothing in round 1, went back to the sighter board and had no idea what was going on... up for round 2, again a big fat 0. Back to the sighter board at 50 yards, I finally see two hits land, a full 2 Mil vertical between them, that's 3.6 inches. It was like my rifle became a smooth bore between sight in and round 1. Along with Fail-To-Fire malfunctions, next round slowly feeding up from the magazine, foggy glasses and freezing my gonads off, having zero accuracy sealed the deal, I was outta there.
Deductive reasoning suggests the interplay of extreme cold with the ammo lube and/or moisture in the bore from firing to be the cause of accuracy loss. I was shooting RWS Special Match. While petroleum based bullet lube may be usable in modest cold, there seems to be no point in attempting to use non-biathlon ammo in extreme cold conditions. Such weather is rare here, it is unlikely I'll be able to test biathlon ammo in similar conditions to compare how it fares.