Some observations on Milsurp prices in the EE

Andy

Andy

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A few of us who have been around for a few years (3+ incarnations of CGN) have observed that the Milsurp section of the EE has changed over the past year or so. Prices on many rifles are down a bit, as evidenced by rifles that would have been gobbled up at their listed prices a couple of years ago, now sitting with multiple BTT's. This is occurring at a time when our numbers have grown significantly (50K+), but also during an economic downturn. Very scarce and "premium" grade milsurps seem to have held their own, or even increased in value, but guns like the Lee Enfield, Swedish Mausers, Mosin Nagant and such, that were the foundation of many collections (i.e. everyone had to have one) seem to have been affected the most.

I'm not saying it's bad - many prices are at historic lows. Nor do I think it hasn't happened before (it certainly has), I'm just speculating on why, and what effect it might have on collectors in the future.

First off, I don't think the change is due to the economy - there is a lot of money changing hands on the EE. I don't think it's due to fewer people collecting either, but there's no way to get real data. Here's what I do think:

- it's temporary;
- it's due to the recent glut of SKS's and Mosins and their low prices;
- it's due to firearm-related "distractions" that are attracting money and attention elsewhere, such as the excitement over the various M14's that are coming in;
- it's due to many milsurps that you'd see frequently on the EE being "off the market". Guys seem to be hanging onto their French, Spanish, Turkish, Austrian/Hungarian, Czech, etc. stuff. That means that it's the same old stuff being sold, and buyers either already have one, or still don't want one; and
- the "no milsurp ammo" reason is still a Red Herring. Five years ago the hey-day for milsurp ammo for 8x57, 6.5x55, 303 Brit, 30/06 and other common rounds was long past, but guys were still buying, collecting and shooting - they were just handloading.

I think that the SKS fad has largely passed, even when we are hearing reports of thousands more about to hit our shores. They'll be sold (at $125?), but eventually when everyone has one, when people grow tired of them, and especially when the cheap ammo supply dries up, they'll become $75 guns. We're already there with Mosin Nagants - want a nice shooter grade for $125? Not really.. The same might happen with the M14 to an extent, but I think it has much longer legs. The $99 Norinco Tokarev came and went, and there might be more like it, but those deals have just a temporary effect.

IMO, I think that is a couple of years we'll see a return to increasing prices, so now seems like a good time to buy (anything but an SKS or Mosin).
 
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Fine observations Andy.

I don't have your experience, so my personal analysis stopped at "geez, the recession isn't cool!"

Lou
 
Cheap, indifferent SKS rifles have sold well because of the cheap ammunition. The discarded steel cases are a legacy left behind on ranges everywhere. When the cheap ammunition is gone, the cheap, indifferent rifles will have little value.
Quality SKS and MN rifles are collectible, and should hold value, and appreciate.
In any field of collecting, quality, condition, availability and desirability drive the values.
 
Yes the Recession is a factor, but not a major one. I also feel the lack of cheap surplus ammo is affecting the sale of shooter grade rifles. The sales of the higher grade collector's pieces is still going strong.
 
Thanks for the insight gents.
I have noticed the price drops as well and wondered about that (there are actually several nice 'surps I'm considering at the moment)
For me personally, the lack of available ammo in some calibers is a deciding factor although not the only one.
Looking forward to expanding my collection!
 
I would agree with many of your points, but disagree on the M-Ns. I believe that in 2-3 (possibly a little longer) years they will move from the under 200 bracket and be in the 300-400 and higher range, just like many other milsurps of the past. The MN is the future collectable. You will be hearing "remember when" stories.

This goes for ones that are decent examples, not the dregs. (as with any milsurp)
 
JP's got a point.

It's true that if I was just looking for my first milsurp, to shoot a little, and someone were to tell me:

"Buy a SKS for $200, there is plenty of cheap ammo for it"

and:

"Buy a Lee Enfield for $300, and pay $1.25 per round"

I'd lean towards the SKS, likely. So indeed ammo shortages must have an influence on the current market.
 
louthepou said:
JP's got a point.

It's true that if I was just looking for my first milsurp, to shoot a little, and someone were to tell me:

"Buy a SKS for $200, there is plenty of cheap ammo for it"

and:

"Buy a Lee Enfield for $300, and pay $1.25 per round"

I'd lean towards the SKS, likely. So indeed ammo shortages must have an influence on the current market.
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I have a feeling thats why a lot of the Mosins are also going down in price.
 
There are not that many guns on EE compared to what is generally available. Cheap guns sell fast.

People inc myself are also getting fed up with scams on the EE as EMT offers zero protection.
 
I agree with your analysis but I would also like to add that with the introduction of the Stevens 200 and the cheap prices on many other Savage rifles all which are excellent shooters for the price there is less of an incentive to buy a bubba milsurp for hunting.

Bubba sporters were getting into the $150-$175 range but when you can buy a new Stevens in whatever caliber you like for $319 I think your going to find a lot of guys will go with a 30-06 or 308 Stevens.

I managed to sell off a pair of NoIII Enfield bubba sporters for around $125 about a year ago, but then I picked up another No4 bubba for $100.

I think prices will drop a little more in general but once the current imports are gone the prices will slowly creep up again.
 
scianna54 said:
...People inc myself are also getting fed up with scams on the EE as EMT offers zero protection.
Click to expand...

I don't do EMT. If that is the only payment option a seller offers, I pass. A money order will reach anywhere in the country is a very few days. If the buyer is in that much of a hurry, I'm not interested. In addition, I don't do business unless I know who the buyer is, their land location, and full contact information.

It makes sense to collect quality. Value of quality items tends to hold and appreciate. Condition is really important, although rarity can trump condition.
Doing restorations is a great hobby, but a rebuilt gun is still a rebuilt.
 
I do EMT and MONEY ORDERs. EMT is fast and CHEAPER . I send a money order the other day for $750 and I mailed in a express pouch (so it chould get there in a couple of days )the cost for the MO & pouch $27 dollars. EMT $1.50 .ITS A NO BRAINER.
 
MAJOR THREAD HIJACK

It's a scary world out there for some people. There have been multiple threads started by people wanting CGN to protect them from the bad guys on the EE. Why not start another one?
 
Demographics may also play a role in the lower price seen for some milsurps. When I was a kid everyone's Dad was a WWII vet and I was fed a steady diet of all things to do with that conflict. Obviously everyone wanted to own a "303" or, perhaps in North America a Garand and many of us do own such items now. Younger firearms enthusiasts are more likely to look to an AR clone or a SKS as the place to spend their money.
 
Andy said:
MAJOR THREAD HIJACK

It's a scary world out there for some people. There have been multiple threads started by people wanting CGN to protect them from the bad guys on the EE. Why not start another one?
Click to expand...



The thread is about why prices are low, this is just my opinion why I think that prices are low on EE compared to dealer prices, because the risk is higher.
 
With the recession, I thought it would bring out some quality milsurps.haven't seen much for sale or at auctions.lots of regular low end stuff but no quality or rare items.Only seen 2-3 enfield snipers all year.
 
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