Status of collector's market, present and future: share your opinion.

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Light Infantry

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This has been talked about in various formats and questions but would like to bring it up.

Where do you think the market for milsurps is heading over the next few years? Will it diminish, increase, stagnate?

Currently the market is very robust and we are seeing prices being paid for milsurps that were unthought of just a few years ago.

I am not talking about particular milsurps but the overall market. I am also referring to Canada as a market as well as The USA/World as a market, and not particular area of a country.

I am not factoring govt legislation into this market, so lets keep that out of the discussion. If the hammer comes down, we all know what that will do. I am only interested in view points on where people's interests's lie and the overall demand based on that interest.

The reason I ask is that we have seen various collectable markets plummet over the last decade, most likely due to shifting demographics i.e boomers getting older and downsizing. For example, antique/wood furniture is a fraction of the value now (I personally think it will go back up astronomically in 20-30 years). Same goes for Doulton and Hummel figurines, china sets, depression glass, wool hand made oriental rugs, baseball cards, beanie babies etc.

The milsurp market has been spurred on by a few notable reasons: movies and shows like Saving Private Ryan and the Band of Brothers and veterans as a whole nearing the end of their lives.

Please keep the responses focused on the above. Do not disrupt this post or go on a rant. Keep it civil. i want a serious and insightful discussion. If you have nothing positive and meaningful to contribute, please F**K off. I have read the other post about people not wanting to post because of #### heads coming along and causing mayhem. YOU will be reported to the mods.
 
I wish the market would go up, I have several break action shotguns and hunting rifles from the 30's and 40's from my grandfather and uncles, that I can not even give away.
 
Personally i feel the market will eventual drop just like any other collectables. Just like all the others you mentioned.
Eventually people get tired, the novelty dies out.
Add to that all the sporter restorations that are being made, kinda dilute the originality of everything available.
Another factor is the availability of surplus ammunitions. A lot of surplus owners are more into them because they were cheap rifles to have fun with.
For the most part that is not the case anymore.
Will price drop to what they were 20 years ago.... they should not, but i'm sure they will get lower.
When... who knows... maybe 5 years maybe 20 years.
But if all the other craze collector items are any indications we should see a price drop. One day.
 
Grock-co said:
I wish the market would go up, I have several break action shotguns and hunting rifles from the 30's and 40's from my grandfather and uncles, that I can not even give away.
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ok, i was only referring to only milsurps, but we can open it up to older collectable hunting guns as well.

pm me with what you have, i am sure i will take them!
 
Tricky situation to pin down. I have been involved in mostly buying military surplus rifles for a good number of years, and can't say with any certainty that the market value will keep going up. The fact that it has been steadily rising does show that there is money to be spent on these firearms. I am a baby boomer, but not quite ready to throw in the towel just yet.

I do know that there are budding collectors out there that will keep buying milsurps. Whether they will be able to latch on to some of the real gems currently sitting in collections is hard to say, depending on how the collections are dispersed and if the money is available. I sold some extras at the Calgary shows over the past three years, and there was nary a hesitation to peel off $900-$1000 apiece for these rifles.

Anyone who can accurately forecast the matter at hand shouldn't be wasting their time on here and should get a job with a good investment company. They would also be wise to put their own money to work.
 
As mentioned above, there's always going to be collectors/enthusiasts who will buy basically whatever they can get their hands on. Personally, I think prices will still grow in the next few years, as you'll see sellers playing the "last shipment" or "rare find" sales pitch on certain surplus firearms. I'm not saying that things won't become harder to obtain, but there's collectors out there sitting on crates and cabinets full of surplus guns, and many will sell for the right price. It's like any market, there will be booming times and low times.
 
I think that milsurp prices will level over time once again, then jump again, level out, then jump... rinse and repeat. I doubt if "production modern" guns will though: they'll mostly hold the value of what was paid for them when bought... but that's just my opinion. :redface:

It took shooting lots of modern guns that never retained value like I thought, even with the price increases in firearms, before I came to appreciate milsurps. I was never interested in milsurps at all until the last decade: I started 8-9 years ago with one and have been picking one up every 3-4 years since. I see the value in rifles not only with history and stories to tell, but that they hold in value and can be as accurate as you need.

I take very good care of my first milsurp, a No5 .303 carbine, but I still hunt with it in some of the baddest close quarters shrub bush where shots never get over 75 yards. It is gaining value, helping me enjoy my hobbies, putting meat in the freezer and a great relaxation & stress reliever... minus the physical recoil of the .303 in a light carbine. :p
 
I'm just old enough to be part of the "bought my first rifle out of a pickle barrel" crowd. And while I missed the yards full of surplus jeeps and crates of 30-06 stacked three pallets high, I do remember the collectors of the time poo-poohing the VG used stuff because why would you buy a slightly used rifle when new/unissued stuff was available for only a couple bucks more?

I think there's a little headroom yet, the new collectors are still getting their feet under them and getting a handle on what's valuable - and what's just expensive.
 
In my opinion, the top condition guns in the market won't get cheaper. This is true of all the other stuff the op mentioned. If you collect Franklin mint Elvis plates, the common stuff is cheaper than ever, while the choicest plates are likely selling for more than they ever have. The core collector community will always pay more for the very best stuff.

If any values go down, it will be on the common models that everyone and their dog already has 3 of them.
 
I don't actually think the movies have affected the situation very much. So many of the collectors are young now. The guys I see hanging around the shops and shows scavenging for treasures are mostly below 40yrs, I would guess. For me, it was a matter of picking up an Enfield or a Mauser and thinking "holy s***, these things are ridiculously well built" after years of shooting the cheap crap that was built over the past 30 years. Its much like the kids switching over to classic rock etc. They recognize a superior product from a bygone era when we could afford to produce good things. The actual historical value is just another huge added bonus.
 
Claven2 said:
In my opinion, the top condition guns in the market won't get cheaper. This is true of all the other stuff the op mentioned. If you collect Franklin mint Elvis plates, the common stuff is cheaper than ever, while the choicest plates are likely selling for more than they ever have. The core collector community will always pay more for the very best stuff.

If any values go down, it will be on the common models that everyone and their dog already has 3 of them.
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Well said Claven.....you've got it in a nut shell.

I'm going to add a little of my thoughts to the subject as well!!
Yes it's generally all about condition, condition, condition.....especially when collecting old west guns such as Winchesters, Marlins, Colts etc but also for the most part with milsurps. Condition means everything albeit for the odd piece condition may not be as important say for instance you could trace and verify the ownership of a certain firearm to a historically significant person whether a old western piece or a milsurp. I'm thinking for instance if you hypothetically owned a revolver that once belonged to Billy The Kidd or a pistol that was once Adolf Hitlers, just the fact that it belonged to them there would be tremendous value attached and I don't think the price would be overly affected by the condition!!!
Now to the milsurps.....same rule generally applies but I think there are some exceptions to the rule.
I happen to have a strong affection for Lee Enfields, notably No4's. I collect them as well as British and Canadian No4 snipers (it's still a work in progress). As far as the sniper's go, yes there are more late war British snipers available in real nice condition (and you can still find all matching examples) then lets say a 1943 example. But the difference to me would be, lets say a 1943 correct, all matching along with all it's bumps and bruises would have more appeal to me as a collector than a mint 1945 that never really saw any service. I would be inclined to pay more for the beat up one than the rel nice shinny one. I think when it comes to milsurps there is a certain appeal to a piece that "has been there and done it". Standard No4's as long as they are #'s matching, that is the key for me...correct, not sporterized and not de-sporterized and the wood is not cracked up then I look at that as value that I will collect and invest in.
As far as long term value goes, I believe that standard No4's will have always have some price volatility but I think as far as the Canadian market goes one can't really go wrong the No4 it has to rich a history here. I think we saw that even a bit in the last few years when the oil patch in Alberta did a nose dive.....to me it seemed the price for a good No4 was down a couple hundred but I think we have already seen a rebound.
The sniper's though I think are a different story. There are so few around especially all correct matching examples.....prices just continue to slowly (and sometimes not so slowly) climb uphill, I have to to see prices for them really drop even in a tighter economy. The people that can afford to collect them, still have the resources to acquire more whether the economy is booming or not......except for me of coarse!!!!! There is a certain nostalgia about collecting sniper rifles and I don't think that's about to change any time soon.
Well that's my 2 cents worth
 
Here's how I see it going. There will be a smaller and smaller percentage of the population that will be gun collectors. Partly because the old ones are dying off and the new ones either aren't interested of don't even know gun collecting is possible (or they've been conditioned to think guns are evil....oops that touched on politics, didn't it). But offsetting that is a bigger population so the net number of collectors may remain stable or even go up. There will be a point however where the old guns are simply too ancient to have any meaning to the majority of collectors, and the super rare will be oddball enough to appeal only to a select few with deep pockets. Roughly speaking, it's the next generation that collects guns from the generation before it. That process will come to a stop as no current military firearms will ever see the surplus market and that may make the currently available milsurps linger in collector's hands a little longer.
 
Interesting subject there Mr. Light Infantry!!!! (We have to get together for a cigar one day before we forget what each other looks like):wave:

As you know, I have been in this game for a long time as you have also and my passion has always been Milsurps.

Your questions are on a lot of peoples minds recently within the Milsurp community.

That being said, we need to step outside the bubble to have a real good look.

Milsurp collectors are a close knit group and sometimes can't see the forest for the trees as the saying goes.

We get stuck in our own world and think everything is great.

Here in Canada and the U.S. over the last ten years or so a lot of collections have come to market due to peoples age and death.

I am guilty as heell buying up my fare share of these, believe me.

My Milsurps are everything from India Pattern Bess to the most current that you can legally own.

Yes, Indian Pattern Bess and many, many others including U.S. Civil War guns that are classified antiques, but at one time they where just ordinary, every day, Milsurps.

The Civil War and antique era of Milsurps has been at a all time low for the last 10 years or so.

They have made a slight come back, but to me, that was due to the deaths of collectors and rare pieces are back up for sale once again.

It seems to be the same crossover with the later era collections to a certain degree also.

I travel a lot between Canada and the US of A and know first hand many of the dealers that are in this business for a living.

The current Grand Slam with the Milsurp gang right now seems to be the WW2 era, American, German, British and,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (In no given order)

We have just been through recent anniversaries of WW2 and now WW1 which seemed to bring on a bit of a buying resurgence in the Milsurp community.

Will it last, will it increase in value, will it,,, ?, will it,,, ?, will it,,, ? is the question of the day.

Most new comers that join our shooting club here in Burlington, Ontario are into the AR-15 and beyond style of firearms.

Hey our club has upwards of 2300 members so it's a good thermometer. (Old, young, of all colours and back grounds)

Saturday nights seems to be the free for all shooting night of anything and your lucky to see more than one Milsurp person on the line the whole night.

Yes, not all collectors are shooters, but,,,,,,,,?

So again, I say, step outside our own bubble.

The old boyz club of Milsurps are dyeing off at a enormous rate compared to 10 or 15 years ago.

Lets face it, there comes a time when we all have to go and that fringe of buyers from years ago are nearing their end of there own rainbow.

Is there enough new comers to replace them?

Personally, right now, I think not, as I believe on a whole, we are a dying breed.

Some of you will call my words BS, but I will remind you, I am no new comer to the Milsurp world.

I own my fare share and travel in my trips for a lot of Military History Historical purposes.

I also do a lot of local research on early Canadian Militia and talk to a lot of collectors, small and large from around the world.

So, my end of the day answer is , who really knows!!!!!

We all have our own flavour of the day, but if your like me,,, look, look,,, oh yeah, I like that too!

Maybe that's no answer to you all, but that's the way I see it.

It's a gamble either way you look at it.

Originally Posted by Claven2
In my opinion, the top condition guns in the market won't get cheaper. This is true of all the other stuff the op mentioned. If you collect Franklin mint Elvis plates, the common stuff is cheaper than ever, while the choicest plates are likely selling for more than they ever have. The core collector community will always pay more for the very best stuff.

If any values go down, it will be on the common models that everyone and their dog already has 3 of them.
Click to expand...

Yes Sir, I would agree with you also with your statement above regarding, "Top Condition"
 
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So my thoughts on the market for milsurps and where I think it is going.

Currently I don't think there is a ton of collectors (or at least serious collectors) out there. Many people at the moment are buying milsurps but most have limited interest in the field. I know many people who own milsurps but can't tell me much about them other than they own them. Nothing wrong with that, my point being these people are the part of the market that will change. The diehard collectors will keep collecting as long as they are able to, well the rest of the market will move on when the prices get to high.

That being said what this means to me is there is a flexible cap on the value a milsurp can reach and still be accessible by the general market. From what I have seen this is roughly the 1000$ range at the moment, as anything beyond that you really have to want something to buy it (for the generic buyer this means they could put that 1000$ into anything else, like a modern rifle, modern handguns, etc.). There are always exemptions to this (such as the M1 Garand, which also is a very popular rifle with shooters due to the accuracy and 8rd capacity) but for the most part this I feel is where the market will stagnate.

Areas which are becoming tricky is the fact that there is tons of information out there now, but how much of it is good information? Many good books have been written in the last 10 years, but most don't buy books. Online the information in recent years has taken a decline as it is now harder to search for good information (for example I type in Steyr M95 on google and it will mostly display Battlefield 1 forums and debates as opposed to the history of the firearm).

I could also see the market taking a dive at least on certain firearms which as a easy example I will use Lee Enfields. The reason being there is so many refinished, redone and restored firearms on the market now it can be difficult to identify which is which (especially for people new to them). I just bought my second No. 1 Mk. 3 recently, and this one was likely refinished at some point but not exactly sure when. The first one I bought was a restored sporter and it was honestly hard to identify that especially with online dealings (I did not pay restored sporter prices either). You do enough bad deals on something and the market falls out from under you, like the Civil War market did about 30 years ago. The market was so flooded with fakes and you required so much knowledge to properly identify a correct example the general market left causing the prices to plummet.
 
Eaglelord17
So my thoughts on the market for milsurps and where I think it is going.

Currently I don't think there is a ton of collectors (or at least serious collectors) out there. Many people at the moment are buying milsurps but most have limited interest in the field. I know many people who own milsurps but can't tell me much about them other than they own them. Nothing wrong with that, my point being these people are the part of the market that will change. The diehard collectors will keep collecting as long as they are able to, well the rest of the market will move on when the prices get to high.

That being said what this means to me is there is a flexible cap on the value a milsurp can reach and still be accessible by the general market. From what I have seen this is roughly the 1000$ range at the moment, as anything beyond that you really have to want something to buy it (for the generic buyer this means they could put that 1000$ into anything else, like a modern rifle, modern handguns, etc.). There are always exemptions to this (such as the M1 Garand, which also is a very popular rifle with shooters due to the accuracy and 8rd capacity) but for the most part this I feel is where the market will stagnate.

Areas which are becoming tricky is the fact that there is tons of information out there now, but how much of it is good information? Many good books have been written in the last 10 years, but most don't buy books. Online the information in recent years has taken a decline as it is now harder to search for good information (for example I type in Steyr M95 on google and it will mostly display Battlefield 1 forums and debates as opposed to the history of the firearm).

I could also see the market taking a dive at least on certain firearms which as a easy example I will use Lee Enfields. The reason being there is so many refinished, redone and restored firearms on the market now it can be difficult to identify which is which (especially for people new to them). I just bought my second No. 1 Mk. 3 recently, and this one was likely refinished at some point but not exactly sure when. The first one I bought was a restored sporter and it was honestly hard to identify that especially with online dealings (I did not pay restored sporter prices either). You do enough bad deals on something and the market falls out from under you, like the Civil War market did about 30 years ago. The market was so flooded with fakes and you required so much knowledge to properly identify a correct example the general market left causing the prices to plummet.
Click to expand...

Yes.

You Sir have added to my above posting in thought also, words that I wanted to say, but I was getting long in writing already.

Very good points indeed.
 
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I don't think you ever loose buying quality.
The worst that happens is you get stuck with truly great stuff.
If you don't sell, you don't loose and you don't sell until time/situation allows for a win.
IMHO
 
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