Status of collector's market, present and future: share your opinion.

Interesting thread IMHO

Some will continue to appreciate in value. Those that are scarce, desirable and in good condition such as anything Long Branch, Ross, snipers, quality German etc

Some will likely stay the same especially those in average condition where there is a good supply. I don't see the average Garand or British Enfield climbing much higher (there seems to have been a recent rise)

Some will go down. In particular there has been a shed load of SKS, Moisin etc that will go down as soon as cheap ammo becomes a thing of the past

My recommendation would be to buy quality and ensure you have a good supply of ammo....
 
My baby boomer Dad collects Lionel trains. He is seeing a huge drop in value even in rare items due to a simple fact. Very little interest among young people. As Boomers die, collections are not being kept, but sold. The market is flooding with items no one wants.

I could see the same phenomenon happening with milsurps if there isn't a young generation constantly feeding into the collector ranks.

Rather ironically, Dad helped me sell a decent collection of Lionel trains I had amassed as a kid. I bought two Lee Enfields with the proceeds. I had shifted my interests.

As long as new generations continue to show interest (and video games and movies do help) the collector market will be strong.
 
Prices will plummet in the next ~10 years. There are no new major caches that will be imported as we're up to converted auto territory now.

Less introductory milsurps means less people being introduced to it. Less and less of a demand and a stagnant supply means depreciation.

How many of us started with an Enfield, Mosin or SKS because they were cheap?

Shooter grade Mosin and SKS prices will eventually climb a bit but the number of them in Canada is very high. Lots of dudes have 2-3 for no reason.

For any serious milsurp collector you already have to import from the USA or Europe to find anything good. A few small gems trade hands between small groups
 
I believe milsurp prices are going to remain steady and grow, barring a major economic crash that kills all spending on non-essentials.

Whether through the commemoration of the Great War and Second World War anniversaries, Battlefield 1, Band of Brothers or any of the myriad other international 'war movies' available on the various video streaming services, exposure to milsurps continues and can be expected to be regularly refreshed every decade as key military anniversaries are reached (and movies made) - sparking renewed interest from new generations, and continuing to support prices, for examples of all grades.

At the various gun shows the milsurps (at least those appropriately priced) are the ones moving off the tables the most quickly - being carried off by younger (compared to me at least) shooters. There also seems to be enhanced interest in the older milsurps - Snider-Enfields and Martini-Henrys - thanks perhaps to easier access to reloading components. They're not making any more milsurps most people can own. I think demand is going to remain strong.

If there's no huge increase in value of the milsurps I own, I'm okay with that (though I'd love to at least get my money back). I get great enjoyment out of taking them to the range and putting them to work - and talking to younger shooters about them - yet another way that the next generation gets infused with enthusiasm for milsurps.
 
The dollar value of the milsurps may go up or down - I certainly cannot predict the future by following trends and extrapolating. We can be sure that laws will change - causing unexpected value changes.

There are likely other variables that are yet unmentioned. Canada could easily be taken by any country that cares to - this sounds very negative, but who knows what Canada stands for anymore? Will you send your boys to fight for whatever it stands for? If this happens, guns could be a wild card - worthless, but priceless.

Antique handguns - many which are very old milsurps have a strange status in Canada - they have more dollar value here as tools than they have as collectables. This dollar value would change in an instant if law were changed only a little. Some things have value which goes beyond dollar value though. A gun is like toilet paper - when you need it, you need it bad.

The value of our guns has another weakness. What if it became law that guns or certain groups of gun could not be privately owned? A 50,000 dollar fine would make a guy stop - even if the profit margin was great.

Put some eggs in the basket - sure - but don't trust guns to fix your problems - financially or otherwise - everything is unpredictable.
 
Prices will go down for that which you have, up for that which you want ... Just like any collectables. Buy only those you love, never sell, then no disappointment. Collectors keep, traders worry about exit value. I've seen auctions where treasures go cheap and crap turns to gold.

I think 20 year olds do see the value in shootable hand machined guns. But shootable depends on the cost of ammunition. Try buying cheap Italian Carcano or 8mm Mauser
 
OK here's my take on it.

At 35 years old I'm a younger milsurp collector for sure.

I find there's way more guys who are interested in milsurps that are 50+ in age vs guys my age. But I tend to sell most milsurps at shows to guys 40 and younger so I'd say that there's a younger group of collectors coming up through the ranks.

And perhaps as my generation gets older we will own most of the cheaper available stuff and we will be searching for the higher priced less common stuff. Also as we get older once again perhaps our incomes will increase so we will be buying more and more just like the baby boomers before us are.

OR OTOH,

Interest in modern scoped rifles may increase and demand may get lower and therfore prices may drop also.

And with an aging baby boomer population there are probably thousands of decent collections out there that will be sold in probably the next 10 to 15 years.

A lot of rare stuff may start popping up on the market as baby boomers pass age 70 and beyond.

Who knows what will happen but it's sure fun to speculate isn't it?

Makes me want to buy yet another Mosin or 2 just on pure speculation alone.
 
Rare or very good quality stuff will not lose value.

People that think that their $250 SKS/SMLE/Mosin is going to be a $2000 rifle in ten years are out of luck.
 
RangeRover said:
Whether through the commemoration of the Great War and Second World War anniversaries, Battlefield 1, Band of Brothers or any of the myriad other international 'war movies' available on the various video streaming services, exposure to milsurps continues and can be expected to be regularly refreshed every decade as key military anniversaries are reached (and movies made) - sparking renewed interest from new generations, and continuing to support prices, for examples of all grades.
Click to expand...

There's a lot of truth to this; my interest in milsurp's started from video games (day of defeat) and band of brothers. There's also a lot of content on youtube now that is driving interest; Forgotten Weapons, The Great War, etc. I have 2 friends who are waiting on their PAL's now because of watching Forgotten Weapons!

I would suspect that prices will remain steady with small increases over time for the average\shooter grade, with some temporary price jumps after a major movie or like joe n suggested the new WW2 Call of Duty game.
 
I got into collecting as a teenager right after C-68 took effect when lots of older guys were ditching all their guns rather than register them - that was a great time for collecting! Lots of variety and cheap. I think my generation (I'm 31) is a lot more into milsurps than classic sporting guns - I used to work at Cabelas and milsurps would fly off the used rack, usually with an under 40, whereas stuff like Winchester Model 12s and all manner of Brownings would typically come in from older guys and gather dust for months.

That said as my generation has gotten a little older and more established I've seen a major jump in milsurp prices and a general decline in availability of the less common stuff and to me more interesting stuff. I still look at the EE every day and its mostly Mosins and SKSs and sporters. Anything good is either messed with or priced way above what an entry level collector can afford, which does make me wonder about the sustainability of the hobby. I also remember seeing things like Berthiers, Carcanos, P14s and Mausers that weren't RCs or M48s a lot more regularly 5-10 years ago. I guess they've mostly disappeared into collections like mine.

What concerns me for the hobbys future is that I don't see how someone makes the jump from your bulk-imported shooter milsurps like the SKS and 91/30 to high end collector milsurps. Lately it seems like the middle range of the market has just disappeared.

I honestly haven't been buying guns much in the last couple of years. Part of it is just having less disposable income (oh, to be 19 and living in my parents basement again...) but mostly anything interesting that's readily available I have, and I'm not seeing much that isn't recently imported pop up anymore. I'll always buy something once in a while (just picked up a Finn M28 off the EE I'm quite happy about) but once you have a few original SMLEs and No.4s it just doesn't make much sense to buy more at almost $1000 a pop. I find I get more return on investment spending my money on other hobbies these days. $50 can buy me a model tank and paints that will entertain me for a week vs 20 minutes of ammo on the range, and that just makes more sense.
 
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Gatehouse said:
Rare or very good quality stuff will not lose value.

People that think that their $250 SKS/SMLE/Mosin is going to be a $2000 rifle in ten years are out of luck.
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Plenty of them will be 2000$ guns I'm sure. Looks like Corwin sold all their smle, those were 1000+ all in. Mosins and Sks's have appreciated about 60% in the past five years. That may not continue at that rate, but they'll continue to appreciate imho.
 
Philthy1 said:
Plenty of them will be 2000$ guns I'm sure. Looks like Corwin sold all their smle, those were 1000+ all in. Mosins and Sks's have appreciated about 60% in the past five years. That may not continue at that rate, but they'll continue to appreciate imho.
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So you are saying that $1000 rifles -not $250 rifles -will be $2000 rifles in ten years. :)
 
About the only upside to the next world war would be that anything less than full auto would be non restricted, and the only prohibited firearms would be directed energy weapons.
Geez, what have I been smoking?
 
I think it will all depend on the gun. My thoughts on each gun and why:

SKS - I think it will cap 600 for an all wood one. I think this will happen when the supply from other countries runs out. Then once the surplus ammo dries up interest will go down a bit. Seems like some companies are still making 7.62X39 ammo for cheaper than the $1 per shot. It will probably come down a bit, 400-500 maybe. If the only ammo available is $1 ish a shot then the demand will be similar to the norinco M14s. There is just too many of them out there for them to really sky rocket in price. Of course random batches will come in cheap just like the semin bayonet 91/30 and K31s do.

Bubba SKS - will follow suit with restored enfield and sporterized enffield. Except the price difference between restore and tapco will be close than enfield restored and sporter

Full wood matching enfield - They are on the rise and will probably stay in the 700s-1500s. People like them enough that we made it work with the ammo. They are for collecting not frequent shooters, kinda like they are now.

Restored full wood - will trail behind the matching ones. I think they will always be a couple hundred less than a matching.

Sporterized Enfields - They will always be cheap since all the collector and cool value is gone. There is no way they will go over 300. There is also a lot of them out there. A lot are past the point of no return, not to mention its not economical to restore them any more.

Mosin Nagants - They will go up just because of historical value. They will probably share the same fate as matching enfields. They will cap at certain price and linger, my guess is 500. There is just too many out there and reloading will be available because 303 reloading is available and probably for a while to come. Obviously the nice ones like the finish ones will cost more due to low numbers.

VZ 858 - I just don't think most people will be willing to pay much than 1500 for them. They will probably linger a that price till the ammo dispears

I think mausers and carcanos will very slowly creep up in value as time goes on. There have But I don't know much about those

New milsurp rifle basically won't happen because the world put in auto or burst options. Unless our gun laws become not stupid we won't see any other milsurps that we have now. Pistols will be our best chance but I am not getting my hopes up. Its kinda like antiques, there will be hardly any in the future because nothing is built to last. The things that are aren't very cool. I think what he have now for milsurps and antiques is all we are going to get, for the most part.

But I really have no idea what I am talking about. I am only 26 and came up with these guess with my own short time observations and listening to the old guys
 
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So,,,,,,,,,,, 26 people answered the call to the original posters question and the thread was heading for the bottom of the page after two days.

27 Milsurpers including the original poster.

GUNNUTZ has 182,944 Members as of September 19, 2017 - 06:00 Ontario time.

= Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!!!!!!!!!!!!

Remember what I said about being in that bubble.

I hope I'm wrong, but,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, just sayin!!
 
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