So.. interesting day today. I wanted to do some velocity testing in colder weather to see if my results mirrored Todd's. Today's temperature was -6 C.
My usual 6.5 CM load is a 123 gr Match King over 42.5 gr H4350 with a CCI BR4 primer. It's been averaging 2815 fps with ambient temps between 5 and 25 C, though I haven't shot over the chronograph in a while.
I started using a new lot of powder recently and wanted to get a feel if it was the same as the old one performance-wise.
I normally clean after each shooting session with Mpro-7 gun cleaner before putting the rifle away, so each shooting session starts with at least one fouling shot.
Since I had the results of Todd's test in the back of my mind, and I was specifically looking for a velocity shift, I fired enough fouling/warming shots to be sure the barrel had stabilized. Seven of them to be exact.
The first shot was considerably slower than the rest, 100 fps slower. That seems to be the norm for this rifle. The second two shots were slightly slower than the average, then it settled in and became quite consistent.
Using rounds loaded with the old lot of H4350, the average velocity I got today was 2830 fps, 15 fps faster than I was getting in warmer weather with the same load, same batch of powder. The new lot of powder gave exactly the same results, 2830 fps average.
There are three possibilities, the first being that the barrel has gotten faster over the last six months. The rifle is relatively new, it has 312 rds through it after today's shooting. This is the most likely scenario in my mind, it stands to reason that the barrel has gotten smoother as it wears in.
Second, H4350 may actually gain velocity in colder weather. I have my doubts about that being the case. Everything I've ever read indicates the opposite, although is IS supposed to be relatively temperature insensitive.
The third possibility is that the cold affects the chronograph in some way, either the electronics or the way the optical sensors see the bullet in colder weather.
When the weather warms up again, I'll repeat the test to see if velocity drops back to 2815, stays the same, or increases.
If it drops back to 2815, I'd say it's the chronograph changing with temperature. If it stays the same at 2830 or increases, I'd say the barrel has gotten faster again, or is now fully broken in and polished.