Why is the Ammo situation so bad??? A answer that makes sense

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-08-27/gun-sales-are-down

People Aren't Buying Guns
By Kyle Stock August 27, 2014

Coming off a year of record sales, the gun market is cooling off. And overeager gunmakers are still struggling to dial down their expectations.

In the recent quarter, Smith & Wesson (SWHC) sales dropped 23 percent, to $131.9 million, and profit plunged 45 percent, to $14.6 million, according to a report late yesterday. Long guns and “modern sporting rifles,” in particular, lost favor among shooters, but handguns cooled off as well. Smith & Wesson shares slumped almost 15 percent on the news.

Sturm Ruger (RGR), another force in the industry, had similarly weak numbers at the end of July. Sales for Sturm dropped 13.4 percent, to $153 million, in the latest quarter, while profit slid by almost one-third, to $22.3 million.

The problem, according to both companies, is too many guns. Executives are grousing about “high inventory,” stubborn retail partners, and a glut of guns in such stores as Cabela’s. They are less eager to acknowledge that high inventory in any business comes from only two places: low demand and/or too much supply.

This week, Smith & Wesson’s chief executive, James Debney, went so far as to suggest that stores were just clogged up with the wrong guns—an “unfavorable mix” of “lesser brands and hard to sell products.” Sturm Ruger, meanwhile, took a similar tact, blaming itself for not producing enough cool new firearms.

What the industry really needs is a few lawmakers advocating a gun-control bill. That’s what pushed the gun business to record highs last year in the wake of the Sandy Hook school shootings. Those fears, however, have largely abated, and gun sales have gone with them. Even reports of ammunition shortages are dying off.

The National Shooting Sports Foundation argues that the industry is just returning to “a new normal.” The number of background checks processed by the FBI this year, while way off last year’s pace, still reflects a decade-long rise in gun interest. “The sky certainly is not falling,” Steve Sanetti, CEO of the foundation, said in a statement. “Like a rocket ship, we’ve returned to Earth, but we haven’t gone back in time.”

Meanwhile, gun executives are taking aim at hunting season, their best time of year, while trying to hold their fire on production. “We’re hitting the brakes, and we have the most desirable products, and we are coming into the busiest season,” Debney at Smith & Wesson said. “I think we are going to be in a great spot.”
 
Critter, Federal's .22LR production is running 24/7 and they are increasing capacity to catch up with demand.

http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2014/08/12/federal-addresses-22-lr-shortage/

Federal Addresses .22 LR#Shortage
Posted August 12, 2014

American Rifleman magazine talks to Tim Brandt, a representative of Federal Ammunition about the shortage of rimfire ammunition on video.

According to Brandt, rimfire production is running 24 hours/day. Essentially, demand continues to outstrip supply. The good news is he does state Federal is expanding production capacity, which I think will be the only thing that will catch inventories up.

Last year, Steve Hornady did a good job of explaining the overall situation regarding ammo sales:

There are videos at the link.
 
Critter, Federal's .22LR production is running 24/7 and they are increasing capacity to catch up with demand.

http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2014/08/12/federal-addresses-22-lr-shortage/

Federal Addresses .22 LR#Shortage
Posted August 12, 2014

American Rifleman magazine talks to Tim Brandt, a representative of Federal Ammunition about the shortage of rimfire ammunition on video.

According to Brandt, rimfire production is running 24 hours/day. Essentially, demand continues to outstrip supply. The good news is he does state Federal is expanding production capacity, which I think will be the only thing that will catch inventories up.

Last year, Steve Hornady did a good job of explaining the overall situation regarding ammo sales:

There are videos at the link.

I was reading that, but the expansions are just happening now whereas the centre fire expansions are all online and we are seeing the fruits of it by the manufactures catching up and even building inventories.

.22 is still ways out, and the cost of the expansion of capacity will be built into the price for some time to come (I don't see cheap .22 anytime in the near term).

Here is another article with same info as yours (just a little more of it).

http://www.americanrifleman.org/mobile/blog.php?id=37353&cid=44

Will the .22 LR shortage ever end? Is there even a shortage—or just a perceived one? On your behalf, we keep asking, "where's the ammo?" See what Federal Premium had to say.
by NRA Staff
August 11, 2014

It happens daily. Still. I get calls and e-mails asking where all the ammo is. Except it is not “all” ammo anymore. For the record, there is no conspiracy. There is no secret government contract. It’s not Bloomberg or Soros (even though their actions and pronouncements often increase demand. Ironic, huh?).

The major domestic ammunition makers have been producing more ammunition than ever. They are all up in terms of total production—double, and in some areas, triple-digit increases. They are all running three shifts. And when it comes to center-fire cartridges, at least of three of the big makers are caught up and beginning to load either new products, line extensions or specialty loads. Previously, lower-demand chambering or atypical bullet weights or styles were shelved due the time it took to change over the tooling. Now, on the center-fire side, anyway, the manufacturers can start to really catch up to demand and get to cartridge producing they have not loaded in two years.

But not on rimfire. Affordable .22 Long Rifle in particular remains like a Bigfoot sighting. Despite running three shifts—I recently talked with Federal Premium’s Tim Brandt specifically about this—rimfire capacity is at its maximum at the Federal Premium Anoka, Minn., and CCI, Lewiston, Idaho, plants. The other rimfire makers in the United States (and some overseas) tell me the same thing. Maximum production is coming out of all them. And it is not enough. Demand for .22 Long Rifle still exceeds production capacity.

The problem with rimfire production is that adding capacity is incredibly expensive and not easy. The machines are very spendy and cannot just be ordered out of catalog. And then you have to train the workforce, too, after the tooling is in and the plant built. And there are aspects of rimfire production one simply cannot rush—nor should it, ever. The priming of rimfire case borders on alchemy, dangerous alchemy. And priming compound is something one cannot take any safety shortcuts with, period. That said, more .22 Long Rifle was produced last year than in any other year in the history of mankind. And it was still not enough.

So, with demand outstripping supply, hoarding and speculation continue. Technology, too, has exacerbated the problem. Social media and instant communication continue to play a role. “Wal-Mart truck is in. In line now” read a Facebook post from a friend. And I received a text from another friend recently: “IV: Bass Pro has bricks of Auto Match. How many u want?”

What we need to come to terms with is that no one knows how long current levels of .22 demand will last—if the big ammo makers knew that they would have known whether or not to build a billion dollar rimfire plant or three. No company wanted to risk that level of capital expenditure, for good reason. Know this, though, the level of demand will remain higher even when the ammo companies catch up, if they ever do so.

Watch the video below for my conversation with Federal Premium's Director of Communications Tim Brandt.
 
Ok .....then why was there only 3 boxes of 115 grain federal on the shelf at Cabelas south Edmonton then, and no bulk 9 mm at all as of yesterday ?

Maybe you should shop outside of Cabelas. There are other retailers that sell guns and ammo.
Sometime the retailers run low on stock, that is just how the system works.

After a quick 30 seconds search, I found 2 site sponsors with bulk 9mm in stock.
 
Ok .....then why was there only 3 boxes of 115 grain federal on the shelf at Cabelas south Edmonton then, and no bulk 9 mm at all as of yesterday ?

Maybe you shouldn't do you shopping at a big box store. My local LGS has cases of .22 stacked up on the floor of the showroom along with cases of all of the different semi-auto calibers.
 
Maybe you should shop outside of Cabelas. There are other retailers that sell guns and ammo.
Sometime the retailers run low on stock, that is just how the system works.

After a quick 30 seconds search, I found 2 site sponsors with bulk 9mm in stock.

I work in Nisku buddy, i visit the be end of all CT's in Leduc in regards to firearms about 3 times a week at lunch ......its not just at Cabela's. I would rather support local than order online, and ya next to no 22lr their either..."
 
Maybe you shouldn't do you shopping at a big box store. My local LGS has cases of .22 stacked up on the floor of the showroom along with cases of all of the different semi-auto calibers.

Where? that's the only think I can't seem to find .22 in any large quantity anyway?
 
I work in Nisku buddy, i visit the be end of all CT's in Leduc in regards to firearms about 3 times a week at lunch ......its not just at Cabela's. I would rather support local than order online, and ya next to no 22lr their either..."

There is at least 4 gun stores around Edmonton...I am pretty sure one of them will have the 9mm you are looking for.
 
I work in Nisku buddy, i visit the be end of all CT's in Leduc in regards to firearms about 3 times a week at lunch ......its not just at Cabela's. I would rather support local than order online, and ya next to no 22lr their either..."

I should add that i go to P&D, Milarm, and Phoenix at least once every couple weeks and check how there ammo supply is also....pretty much the same selection
 
There is a few sponsors that do ship ammo and have .22LR in stock.

But there is no shortage of common calibers other than .22LR.

True, however shipping is often more than the cost of the ammo.

Just for kicks Iwent through the process of one online retailer.

500 Remington subsonic $35
Shipping $38.
Tax $5

So, $78 for a brick of Subsonic.
 
True, however shipping is often more than the cost of the ammo.

Just for kicks Iwent through the process of one online retailer.

500 Remington subsonic $35
Shipping $38.
Tax $5

So, $78 for a brick of Subsonic.

It's 22LR for crying out loud, it doesn't go stale buy 5000 and be done with it, a brick doesn't last an afternoon in the field.
 
Cabelas and CT in Barrie has both 9mm and 22 in stock, and have had it everytime I went into the store in the past year. I can't recall every seeing empty shelves.
 
Critter, you post some good articles, The common theme is there is a new normal and that new normal is a 25-40% higher demand than before Obama, so as much as manufacturers are catching up, they are still not fully caught up. It has always been said things will normalize, just not quite there yet so shortages do remain, especially of certain kinds of ammo which are typically in high demand all the time.
 
Today I looked at the SFRC website for 9mm.

The website lists 54 varieties they sell. Only three are in stock.......

Yes there seems to be a supply issue.


You hit the nail on the head. Some Folks don't think there is a supply issue as they can still find 9mm ammo if they look hard. What is forgotten is the fact that we used to be able to buy pretty much as much as we wanted of all different kinds of 9mm ammo. Retailers in Canada are still scrambling to buy whatever they can, as the old ammo channels are not as open as they used to be…… This will sort itself out in time, for now though its NOT back to normal.
 
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