A lot of people assume that the WWII era firearms they're currently purchasing will be worth a hefty sum down the road but it's very difficult to say what the future truly has in store. Being a young collector I've pondered this subject many times and have concluded that the items will probably only hold their value if there's still an interest in them. Look at American Civil War items for example - the bottom has completely fallen out of that market. I feel as though this occurred for two main reasons. The first being that the next generation of collectors didn't pick up where the older generation left off and the second being that Confederate items became so heavily faked that people stopped buying them all together. I wouldn't be surprised if German militaria from WWII ended up in the same boat down the road as it's already very risky to purchase certain SS items.
Another factor that needs to be considered is the fiscal aspect of collecting. In recent years the value of certain items has increased exponentially. There are a number of people on this forum that probably remember purchasing matching K98s for $300 back in the early 80s but they presently can't really be touched in Canada for under $2K (provided that the person you're buying from knows what they have). If you look at the figures, the prices of these items have nearly hextupled in the last few decades. If these trends continue a matching K98 would theoretically be going for around $12K by 2045. The only problem with that theory is... who the hell's going to be able to afford them? Realistically, I think that the gents who started collecting in the 70s/80s are the ones who have been able to cash in on their initial investments but I'm betting that the market will eventually stagnate leaving younger collectors like you or I stuck with certain items that we thought would be worth a lot more then they actually turned out to be. For this reason, I collect because it genuinely gives me great pleasure to preserve history .... but am not banking on some kind of fantastic fiscal return on my investments down the road.
Plus... who knows if we'll even be permitted to own firearms in here in Canada in 40-50 years. Unlike our southern neighbours, we don't have any clauses in our constitution that entrench the ownership of firearms as a right so this leaves the future of our hobby on pretty uncertain ground if you asked me...
- Chris
I believe you hit the nail on the head. That's why as a young collector, I shoot EVERYTHING I own, but I don't buy anything that shouldn't be fired! (IMO, they all should be fired on occasion, dust is not healthy for them)
My 42' longbranch is gorgeous, it is my favorite, the pride of my collection. Its not "mint" as it went through hell at one time, obvious from some light pitting, but it was FTR'd (no FTR mark) and re-blued very nicely, it has an "imperfect barrel star" over the chamber, but the pitting is so minor it can be hard to see (I love the high standard these were inspected to). Its got a "short" buttstock that matches the rest too well to replace, I'm tall so it kind of sucks, but its easy to get used to. It was a deal to boot, came in a transit case with the matching mint accessories. It is the best shooting No.4 I own, I pick singles of match ammo out at gun shows just to feed it properly because I don't reload. Does shooting it devalue it? Not in my opinion, I still baby it, and I won't completely shoot the barrel out in my lifetime. To add: I know its not a restored sporter, and it wasn't reblued after its service, it sat in the same basement for a very long time before it came to me, I'm the second civilian owner, and I still find grease in places. (proof enough for me)
My mint...ehh...mint-ish (damn safe kiss) 68' K31, matches my car... It would draw some attention at the range. Haven't taken it out yet, but I do believe the K31 will increase in value simply because of its shooting capability, when they run out! I'm not saying they will triple in value, its doubtful that they even double, but they will increase over the next couple years.
Now, I'll get back on track. The high prices we see on WW2 German items is GROSS, I get that there aren't many non RC's or Yugo's floating around. There is a lot of demand for un messed with rifles, we don't see these prices reflected in a lot of other rifles or handguns. I would personally buy a correct G98 over a correct K98K, simply because there is less of a chance of it being "fake", and I'll likely spend less on one. The stigma the K98 gets as the true "bad guy" rifle of the 20th century could have easily gone to the current soviet surplus (had to throw that in there
), and I believe it will help keep its value up. We Albertans may have a chance to see this soon!
Maybe in 20 years the market will have fallen through, but maybe it will be resurrected by a popular film or TV series... but like Chris said, maybe we won't be able to own guns in the future, guns make a poor long term investment in Canada, enjoy them while it lasts. With any luck you wont need them for cash in the future anyways, and they will only hit the market when your dead!
And just because I say they aren't a good long term investment doesn't mean I'm going to stop collecting them
