CPC Leadership

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Had a great chat with my nephew last night. He's a political science major at Queens right now (4th year) and this has been debated to death this past year.

Their conclusion in class (and rings true to me) is that a Liberal will vote Liberal, no matter of the leader. A Conservative will vote Conservative, no matter of the leader.

What you need to aim for is the undecided or middle of the road voter.

As much as I like Lewis her platform on abortion will rule her out to those middle of the road voters. Her lack of experience during a global recession will be fodder for the Liberals. I don't fell Canadian voters are ready for a woman PM. Many of us still remember Kim Campbell.

Now a veteran with Search And Rescue postings with governmental experience serves as a safe vote for those middle of the road voters.

I see many posts around sticking for HARDLINE Conservative Values. I don' think those exist anymore in a modern world. Most Conservatives I know are socially Liberal and financially conservative. Being "old school" will guarantee a loss.
 
Onefastbike said:
Being "old school" will guarantee a loss.
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And the liberals are counting on it, that's always how they attack the CPC. And sadly, the CPC candidates seem like they didn't see that coming.

Last election, Scheer took so long to reply to questions about his positions on a few subjects that by the time he took position, the media had already decided for him.

I hope the CPC will prepare better next election, or they deserve to lose again.
 
Onefastbike said:
Had a great chat with my nephew last night. He's a political science major at Queens right now (4th year) and this has been debated to death this past year.

Their conclusion in class (and rings true to me) is that a Liberal will vote Liberal, no matter of the leader. A Conservative will vote Conservative, no matter of the leader.

What you need to aim for is the undecided or middle of the road voter.

As much as I like Lewis her platform on abortion will rule her out to those middle of the road voters. Her lack of experience during a global recession will be fodder for the Liberals. I don't fell Canadian voters are ready for a woman PM. Many of us still remember Kim Campbell.

Now a veteran with Search And Rescue postings with governmental experience serves as a safe vote for those middle of the road voters.

I see many posts around sticking for HARDLINE Conservative Values. I don' think those exist anymore in a modern world. Most Conservatives I know are socially Liberal and financially conservative. Being "old school" will guarantee a loss.
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Not sure whether O'Toole or MacKay is the more electable in a general election (i suspect MacKay by a nose but that's just a hunch). I do agree it's all about the fight for the undecided swing voters in the middle. The liberals have it easier because their vote is more evenly distributed (efficient) so the same number of votes will get them more seats than the CPC. However, both main parties need support from more than their dedicated supporters to reach a majority. Elections in Canada have always been a fight for the middle.
 
I am an old white guy , but I think the Conservative Party need a new Leader ,,," FACE " ,,,,, so I am voting for Leslyn Lewis.
She will appeal to more voters , that we need. I also think she will fight JT better. Seems to be understanding of our needs.
 
Onefastbike said:
I see many posts around sticking for HARDLINE Conservative Values. I don' think those exist anymore in a modern world. Most Conservatives I know are socially Liberal and financially conservative. Being "old school" will guarantee a loss.
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True. But majority unfortunately seems unwilling to realize that. And that's why CPC is heading for another loss, at least that's how I see it.
 
3apa3a said:
True. But majority unfortunately seems unwilling to realize that. And that's why CPC is heading for another loss, at least that's how I see it.
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^^^This. A Social Conservative stance will almost guarantee (another) loss for the Cons except for Manitoba/Saskatchewan/Alberta, and (maybe) a couple of the Maritime provinces. And, with both her stated Pro-Life position, AND even more damning as far as the center/"switchable" voter, an endorsement from the Campaign Life Coalition is the kiss of death to her electability on a NATIONAL basis.

From the Huffington Post online backgrounder: https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/leslyn-lewis-conservative-leadership-race_ca_5e44500ac5b61b84d3443705

Endorsed by anti-abortion group

Lewis has never been an MP though she did run for the Conservatives in 2015. She was parachuted into a Toronto riding at the last minute after old video surfaced of the nominated candidate urinating into a coffee cup while working in someone’s home. He quit and the party convinced her to run, but she lost to a Liberal.

She declined an interview request Wednesday, as she has most mainstream-media queries in recent weeks as she’s been building her profile among party activists and with third-party organizations, including the Campaign Life Coalition.

The pro-life group has endorsed her, and she also counts among her supporters Charles McVety, a prominent Christian activist who has called her a “breath of fresh air” as a strong Christian woman who is anti-abortion and in support of traditional marriage. McVety and the Campaign Life Coalition come from different wings within the socially conservative right in Canada, a faction of the Conservative movement that has had major influence on leadership campaigns in past years.

This (his abortion stance, or lack thereof) is just one of the things that dogged Scheer, but it was a major factor at least in Ontario and Quebec.

I am, frankly, still trying to sort out my leanings on who would best be an electable leader, and while Lewis ticks many of the boxes, the ones that left empty are the ones that will likely end up with her circling the drain.

O.N.G.
 
Trudeau doesnt play fair, he cheat, he lie, he is a dishonest politician.
If facing Mckay or O'toole he will cheat is way in another win like he did with Scheer.

My calculation is simple, Leslyn Lewis have an ace in the hole.

The novely effect, i gamble it would for time of one élection bring a lot of sympathies and couldl feth an extra 50,000 votes to the CPC thus overtrowing the timbit boy.
As a gambler i wii feel when i have to go ALL IN.

This is one of these moment…

PS: We lost the 95 referendum by just south of 50,000 votes.
 
trebor2880 said:
Hence the re-re-election of Trudeau!
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I'm hoping for the best but fear there is a good chance you might be right.

However, if the economy does not show signs of a good bounce back Trudeau might be in trouble. He is riding high on people rallying behind the gov on Covid but that kind of support can be fleeting. Look at George Bush Sr. He was at 93% approval following Gulf War I but Clinton beat him less than 2 years later in a campaign that was almost exclusively about the economy.

One thing that worries me is that Trudeau might choose to call an election while he is still popular over the gov's Covid response and before it begins to sink in to people just how f*cked the country is economically.
 
Lewis as PM has many advantages.....the Liberals won't be able play their favorite cards, the race, gender, misogyny ones will be all out the window. Plus most people realize that a PM is more of figurehead than anything else. Look at the wing nut we have right now.....all he does is read a script written by Gerald Butts and Katie Telford and his followers lap it up like their daily dollop of morning gruel.
 
IMO Trudeau's current popularity is a result of two factors:

1) He's handing out money like it's going out of style; and
2) The press hasn't (yet) had the time to investigate this government's late response to the pandemic and questionable handling of PPE procurement.

Both these factors are temporary in nature.

I think whoever the CPC leader is, he/she must appeal to small-to-medium businesses. I walked around my downtown yesterday for the first time since mid-March. Literally every third storefront is shuttered, and the streets are deserted. CERB is fine - but temporary - but it doesn't help business owners, who arguably are being hit harder than most individuals. Speaking for myself (as someone who was laid off on March 13), $2000/mo pretty much covers my monthly expenses (and for that I'm grateful). A high-traffic commercial storefront where I live rents for about $13,000/mo. Even with all/most of your employees laid off, you're not going to meet that expense with your online sales. Even that $40k business loan isn't going to go far.

The LPC's platform benefiting small business has never been particularly strong, and I think whoever heads the CPC needs to introduce measures which will actually benefit this segment.
 
In order to win, conservatives need to create a vision of a prosperous economical future for the country. Clearly the majority of people don’t care about the social issues, especially “conservative social” issues. So they must not even discuss them. Pot, same ### marriage, gun control, etc. should not even be a matter of discussion, or they should just promise not to change the status quo. You can deal with those issues later when you get a majority government. PCP needs a charismatic leader that would talk mainly about the economy. Money in the pocket is close to everyone’s heart. Make Canada great again! That should be the message. We saw the results south of the border. I don’t think Canadian electorate is smarter than American, probably the other way around. So many provincial elections were lost because “good and honest”, and in fact very stupid, conservative leaders tried to resolve social issues during elections.
 
BCreserveMP said:
IMO Trudeau's current popularity is a result of two factors:

1) He's handing out money like it's going out of style; and
2) The press hasn't (yet) had the time to investigate this government's late response to the pandemic and questionable handling of PPE procurement.

Both these factors are temporary in nature.

I think whoever the CPC leader is, he/she must appeal to small-to-medium businesses. I walked around my downtown yesterday for the first time since mid-March. Literally every third storefront is shuttered, and the streets are deserted. CERB is fine - but temporary - but it doesn't help business owners, who arguably are being hit harder than most individuals. Speaking for myself (as someone who was laid off on March 13), $2000/mo pretty much covers my monthly expenses (and for that I'm grateful). A high-traffic commercial storefront where I live rents for about $13,000/mo. Even with all/most of your employees laid off, you're not going to meet that expense with your online sales. Even that $40k business loan isn't going to go far.

The LPC's platform benefiting small business has never been particularly strong, and I think whoever heads the CPC needs to introduce measures which will actually benefit this segment.
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100%. You get small and medium business on your side and Ont will be blue.
 
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