Global supply of surplus 7.62x39 ammunition

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chutch

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Every time Cabela’s puts 7.62 on sale, I wonder, “How much longer till the supply dries up?” Does anyone have any concrete information on the actual global supply of surplus 7.62 ammo, and what the expected supply situation in Canada will be like over the next few years?
 
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The Chinese ammo we are getting now was made in the 1970s. China still makes it, and would have nearly 50 years of production still in storage.

The real question is whether we will still have sks and other si auto rifles to shoot it out of before we turf the turd.
 
There is a futurist author ??? Kuntzler whose book, "The Long Emergency" talks about the privilege of luxury and the retail mechanisms that feed that expectation. Think about any non essential good in society. Think about the Walmart effect on retail. Do you choose 2-yr old blended whiskey or 12-yr old single malt Scotch? If you can afford it, you'll go for the more expensive stuff. The actual effect is the same, but the customer's perception of luxury matters.

Extend that to the widespread availability of small arms ammunition. There used to be $15 a box CIL, Dominion and other brands of your preferred hunting loads. That is now $45 if you can find it. The supply and demand for .303BR has been mentioned, even though it is probably one of the most prevalent chamberings. It would be a rare manufacturer who would offer .303 at $20 a box.
 
nowarningshot said:
Brandon banned Russian import ammo. Many millions of cheap x39 imported to feed American AK's. Funny, they allowed Russian small arms, but banned Chinese.

Apparently those Russian ammo factories have been relocating out of Russia, to be able to export to the US again.
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They don't allow Chinese over a pretty incredible incident involving Norinco reps offering to sell gangbangers RPGs and other heavy weapons. It was a good excuse at the time to turn off a tap they had already been eying for a long time.

I am skeptical about your comment towards Russia simply moving it's factories. The sanctions are against specific companies and individuals themselves so moving it would not make a difference..?
 
Can't compare 303 surplus to 7.62x39... 303 is an obsolete round.
China will continue to make cheap ammo. Once the surplus runs low you will see more non corrosive cheap stuff available. Not as cheap, but still cheap.
 
nowarningshot said:
Brandon banned Russian import ammo. Many millions of cheap x39 imported to feed American AK's. Funny, they allowed Russian small arms, but banned Chinese.

Apparently those Russian ammo factories have been relocating out of Russia, to be able to export to the US again.
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The Russian ammunition factories are making up for lost time refilling rear area Russian ammo depots. That and making up for lost forward area Russian ammo dumps.

Barnaul ammunition is a product line from a plant that moved a couple of times already, the last move in 1941. The other two times were to get away from civil wars.

Wolf ammunition is sort of an international conglomerate with plants in many countries. Some parts of their operations could be moving to the US, but that is more likely to get around import and country of origin rules and meet consumer demand than any part of the Russian war on Ukraine.

Red Army Standard ammunition had a plant in Luhansk, Ukraine. I doubt they are going to be interested in locking in any long term export contracts.
 
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Bottom line - buy a couple of cases now. At best it will become more expensive and at worse will get harder and harder to find at any price
 
chutch said:
Every time Cabela’s puts 7.62 on sale, I wonder, “How much longer till the supply dries up?” Does anyone have any concrete information on the actual global supply of surplus 7.62 ammo, and what the expected supply situation in Canada will be like over the next few years?
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If the demand is there , there will always be a supplier willing to step up and fill the demand for the right price ; the question is what will that price point be as ammo prices seem to be rising rapidly ?
 
I remember the older fellows saying 303 British surplus would never dry up due to so much being made. Eventually all surplus ammo will be used up. Starting to happen now. The market is seeing new production, Norinco red box for one. I have Russian surplus sitting here but getting down. Take the stripper clips hardly anyone kept them as every case had them. Now people are looking for them. Company’s are making new clips.
Not enough being supplied so companies are stepping up and making new. How close to actually drying up I don’t know but signs are present.
 
chutch said:
Every time Cabela’s puts 7.62 on sale, I wonder, “How much longer till the supply dries up?” Does anyone have any concrete information on the actual global supply of surplus 7.62 ammo, and what the expected supply situation in Canada will be like over the next few years?
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What Cabela's puts on sale is very modern Norinco 7.62x39mm ammo produced in 2019, 2020 and 2021. So-called "red box ammo" (it used to be a "white box"). It is 100% non-corrosive and has nothing to do with "surplus". The price in Cabela's comes to 56 cents/round which is not as cheap as it used to be but still reasonable. The "red box" rounds are 100% reliable in an SKS or a bolt-action, long gun chambered for a 7.62x39mm round like, for instance, my Ruger American Ranch. It is not very accurate ammo, rather passable accuracy. I miss very much Barnaul ammo which I liked very much. Much more accurate than a "red box" one. Damn sanctions on Russia!
I've already bought about 3,000 of these Norinco "red box" rounds from Cabela's. So, as long as Norinco can sell reasonable quantities of this ammo in Canada I don't expect any "drying up". A number of other firearm dealers also sells the same Norinco ammo in this country. I'm sure that there will be still demand for Norinco ammo in Canada into the foreseeable future.
 
05RAV said:
What Cabela's puts on sale is very modern Norinco 7.62x39mm ammo produced in 2019, 2020 and 2021. So-called "red box ammo" (it used to be a "white box"). It is 100% non-corrosive and has nothing to do with "surplus". The price in Cabela's comes to 56 cents/round which is not as cheap as it used to be but still reasonable. The "red box" rounds are 100% reliable in an SKS or a bolt-action, long gun chambered for a 7.62x39mm round like, for instance, my Ruger American Ranch. It is not very accurate ammo, rather passable accuracy. I miss very much Barnaul ammo which I liked very much. Much more accurate than a "red box" one. Damn sanctions on Russia!
I've already bought about 3,000 of these Norinco "red box" rounds from Cabela's. So, as long as Norinco can sell reasonable quantities of this ammo in Canada I don't expect any "drying up". A number of other firearm dealers also sells the same Norinco ammo in this country. I'm sure that there will be still demand for Norinco ammo in Canada into the foreseeable future.
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Great points...I think the Cabela's reviews can be confusing...it looks like maybe the people who complained about corrosive ammo actually bought the white box, which apparently Cabela's was still selling last year - what the headstamp was for those I am still trying to find out from anyone. But I have bought all red box with 311-19 and 311-20 from Cabela's and all were non-corrosive (I didn't clean my gas tube, piston, barrel, bolt, etc. for over a week and left it during that time to test for rust/corrosion - there was none). Unfortunately, Cabela's still leaves the white box photo on their website even they are selling red box now. The $9.99 price point is decent when it is on sale and I know decent is pretty subjective given that these prices were much lower years ago. Given how ammo prices have historically been, not a bad idea to stock up on these. But as a previous poster astutely stated, the bigger challenge is in the government freezing the rifles that shoot these, rather than the ammo supply for these running out.
 
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