Here's how I see things regarding expected prices based on current macro forces:
1) War - causes upward pressure on prices, and crimps availability. Last time there was a war, ammo was non-existent for many months as the US manufacturers diverted all production to supplying US troops (at least for the 223 caliber). This could happen again with Ukraine.
2) Inflation/money printing/stimulus checks- causes upward pressure on prices due to increased raw material costs and higher overall demand. Governments are giving out "inflation relief" checks, which will keep inflation higher than without them.
3) Recession- causes downward pressure on prices, down to the vendor's cost (selling for anything less= losing money). This improved pricing would be due to poor economic outlook (reducing demand), and would only be temporary. The vendor will not order any more if they are losing money on selling a product- this would be inflationary in the medium term due to less available supply to end consumers.
4) Interest rates- increases cost to borrow, so will cause upward pressure on prices (costs the vendor more to order the same amount of goods)
5) De-globalization- increases costs in general- alternative suppliers need to be found if the current ones are not available.
Basically the expectation is that the prices will have some sort of floor due to the above (at least down to the vendor's cost basis, or it's a loss leader). If prices drop dramatically, it'll likely be a terrible sign that we are in a bad recession/depression. Only re-globalization or end of war would be a positive sign that prices may come down (end of war is typically when ammo gets real cheap).
In the face of the above, I make sure I always have some ammo on hand to practice with, and enough to keep me asleep at night (ie. things can always get worse). Good luck all!