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I was just cruising the Internet and I came across some estimates that world lead reserves will be completely exhausted in 42 years (with some estimates as low as 18 years due to recent surges in demand). I can't imagine what could possibly be used to replace lead in bullets.
 
Ok, so I did a bit more reading, and it looks like people are looking to 100% copper. Thing is, estimates of copper reserves are expecting 25-60 years of viable copper production too. Not to mention it costs more to extract, it's used in more applications (higher competition for prices) and it's more expensive to form into bullets.
 
I was just cruising the Internet and I came across some estimates that world lead reserves will be completely exhausted in 42 years (with some estimates as low as 18 years due to recent surges in demand). I can't imagine what could possibly be used to replace lead in bullets.

Nothing just disappears into thin air, there will be just as much lead in 42 years as there is now...

...the means to getting it will shift from mining to recycling.

IMO, if we (all people) don't get our act together and don't have very efficient ways to recycle EVERYTHING by then a shortage of lead will be the least of mankind's problems.
 
May you post the URL's where you found this out, thanks.
Just google the stuff. I used Wikipedia and a couple other sources. That's why I left large ranges in the numbers I posted.

Sure lead can be recycled by sport shooters on ranges, but how much lead fired by soldiers in the desert, or hunters in the bush is recycled?
 
Nothing just disappears into thin air, there will be just as much lead in 42 years as there is now...

...the means to getting it will shift from mining to recycling.

IMO, if we (all people) don't get our act together and don't have very efficient ways to recycle EVERYTHING by then a shortage of lead will be the least of mankind's problems.


Absolutely true. As a species we have to remember that for all practical purposes, earth is a closed system. Everything needs to be recycled and there are both hard and soft limits to populations, production, economic growth and resources.

Think spaceship earth. Short of developing cold fusion, we are going to have to develop the means to live within our means.
 
What they fail to mention is that it is know reserves will be depleted AT THE CURRENT PRICE. There is lots of lead around if you increase the price. And as mentioned above, recycling will play a huge role in future supplies.

spot-lead-6m-Large.gif


Notice how right now the price is up, but also the amount of lead in warehouses is also up. The last spike in prices was accompanied by a DROP in stock. I can't see the current price staying up, not with stock so high.

spot-lead-5y-Large.gif


lme-warehouse-lead-5y-Large.gif
 
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