ammo situation worsening.... and worsening..... and worsening ....... May 5, updated

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A month ago there was plenty of ammo on the shelves. A normal supply. Where did it go?

The only reasonable explanations are the either those darn 'Muricans drove across the border to our southern cities and cleaned them out <snicker> or the hoarders got it.

Figure it out.
 
critter928 said:
Any evidence the manufacturers are sending us less?

That they will not be sending us more in the future?

P&D just said they seen this coming and increased orders two and three times normal to meet the demand, yet people here are buying in larger quantities requiring mechanical help to get it to their vehicles.

So what rationale reasoning is causing our panic buying and hoarding here, other than some here beating the fear mongering drum over future supply problems that have no basis in fact?

Do you believe the American's will not sell to us in the future, or will not be able to meet our demand?

Once again, I point you to a time when we have more choice than ever for what we buy, and in larger retail packaging than ever. So what is causing people here to hoard other than catching the same case of irrational fear-mongering that is going on in the US?

You know the one in the US where one of the biggest manufactures in the business, Hornady, thinks is irrational and based on baseless rumours;



We are doing it to ourselves, and if our demand causes price increases to meet it, it will be our own fault.

In the meantime, I will sit back, breathe, and wait for the hoarders to run out of money and then enjoy the sales.
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Well, for starters, the last time I was in P&D Diane told me that a certain manufacturer had given them notice that they would not be honouring their large back order. Also, just because P&D was smart enough to order a ton ahead of time doesn't mean that the next order they put in will be just as easy to acquire.
 
tmccrank said:
Well, for starters, the last time I was in P&D Diane told me that a certain manufacturer had given them notice that they would not be honouring their large back order. Also, just because P&D was smart enough to order a ton ahead of time doesn't mean that the next order they put in will be just as easy to acquire.
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Why not?

And does P&D deal directly with the manufacturers? Or Canadian distributors?

Do you think the American manufacturers putting out supply at record levels are going to stop? Or just stop selling to Canada?

Do you think that the Americans that bought guns for the first time, and some ammunition to go with them are going to keep buying all the ammunition the manufacturers can produce?

Do you think the hoarders in the US are going to keep buying at the same rate indefinitely?

Or do you think that US manufactures are going to be forced out of business, shut down, or otherwise not be there tomorrow?

That some sort of legislation is going to happen to affect supply?

If you answer the questions honestly, you will see this is passing, and just like 2008 it will come to pass, and the result will be even more creative marketing and deals to sell all that supply capacity that manufacturers have ramped up to meet the irrational demand based on fear and rumours.
 
tmccrank said:
Well, for starters, the last time I was in P&D Diane told me that a certain manufacturer had given them notice that they would not be honouring their large back order. Also, just because P&D was smart enough to order a ton ahead of time doesn't mean that the next order they put in will be just as easy to acquire.
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If you go back a few hundred posts in this very thread, Phil said they would not honor the price on the huge backorder. He's never once said they were'nt getting any ammo in. Maybe he can give us an update on the situation.
 
joe-nwt said:
If you go back a few hundred posts in this very thread, Phil said they would not honor the price on the huge backorder. He's never once said they were'nt getting any ammo in. Maybe he can give us an update on the situation.
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That's not what I'm talking about. When I was in the store buying 10,000 rounds of 22LR, Diane said a specific backorder of other ammo (I could be wrong - but I assumed 5.56) wouldn't be filled at all. Nothing regarding pricing. Phil was likely referring to a different order. I'm not claiming it's all gospel, but Diane said it. Not me. The two friends I was there with heard it the same way I did.
 
There is a massive ammo shortage. There is no resupply guys.

You all remember the massive amounts of ammo that Cabela's had stockpiled, right?

I warned you all about the size of their weekly shipments and how their inventory was dwindling.

Here is what they have now: NOTHING. these pictures were taken on Friday right after their DELIVERY. There is even less now!

Note that the boxes in the back are 12ga, not 22LR. The whole top shelf that used to be stacked with 22lr is now used for other things.

The bottom area only has a few cases where it used to be packed top to bottom left to right. They don't even have minimags anymore. They don't have bushmans or 333s....

The shortage has been here for a while, we have simply been using up what was already in store and already in the channel. It's almost GONE and there is nothing to replace it.

Reality check.


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Being the cheap prick I am, I buy ammo when its on sale. Definitely not when its stupidly overpriced.
As someone on CGN said, "Buy it cheap, stack it deep."

My reaction to seeing a brick of .22LR suddenly going for $40 is that they can pound it up their ass.
And if HTC is correct about a brick now asking $80, they can pound it up sideways.


harbl_the_cat said:
This thread spurred me to write this:
...
I recall stories by word of mouth AND the mainstream media of .22 ammunition that once were $20 selling for $80, or .223 ammunition that previously sold for $0.30/round selling for as high as $1 per round, or no-inventory of ANY brand of AR-15 and aftermarket buyers upbidding the price of said rifles to be double to triple the pre-crisis price.
...
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If you wait for prices to drop you just won't be buying any ammo. Prices are going up and they will stay there, more profit makes shareholders happier and that is what free enterprise is all about. Like the fuel business for some strange reason all suppliers will have similiar pricing when the smoke clears, and that pricing will be UP.

Don't let anyone convince you to wait, they are not able to produce ammo at a rate that is going to fill demand, it will change but not in the near future. If you want ammo buy it NOW.

California consumes more of "everything" than all of Canada combined, it will take many months to see supply meet demand.

The limiting of quantities you can purchase by retailers in the US will ease the situation slightly but it does not solve the problem. Demand will continue to outstrip supply for months. Things MAY improve sometime in the third quarter of this year but certainly not before.

Winchester will open a new plant in the US probably before the third quarter, this should help the supply situtation
 
enfield303t said:
If you wait for prices to drop you just won't be buying any ammo. Prices are going up and they will stay there, more profit makes shareholders happier and that is what free enterprise is all about.
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Fine.
Good thing I bought all I did before it became fashionable to do so.
I'll wait...
 
Eventually there will be a vacuum, when supply catches up to and then over runs demand. Whether it be 3 months, 6 months or a year, there will be more ammo and the prices will slowly come back down.
 
Apple stock is done to $390 from hitting $700 last Sept.

Unless everyone in NA is shooting way more ammo all the hoarders will max out their credit card and storage space; factories will catch up and start dumping supply; just a matter of when.

Looking forward to great XMas sales, can't wait.
 
More people are getting licensed than has happened in a long time. Which is good to have more people on the firearm users side, but also means they are buying up the ammo. I personally got 7 more ammo suckers to get a license in the last year. Also threads like this makes the paranoia run and cause everyone to go out and buy. The increases I've seen are close to equal to the increases in all other areas of retail from food to gasoline. I would suggest getting into reloading. It is fun and you are able to make what you need when you need it. Will save a little but will shoot more!! LOL
 
burnaby said:
Apple stock is done to $390 from hitting $700 last Sept.

Unless everyone in NA is shooting way more ammo all the hoarders will max out their credit card and storage space; factories will catch up and start dumping supply; just a matter of when.

Looking forward to great XMas sales, can't wait.
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I hope so burnaby.

I am coming back to Canada after a three year absence and will need some summer time plinking ammo to feed the hungry irons left in the safe. Looks like they might be on a diet for awhile more to come. I don't mind the price increase so much as the obvious scarcity of the stuff.
 
burnaby said:
Apple stock is done to $390 from hitting $700 last Sept.

Unless everyone in NA is shooting way more ammo all the hoarders will max out their credit card and storage space; factories will catch up and start dumping supply; just a matter of when.

Looking forward to great XMas sales, can't wait.
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I think this is the case - the thing is, the people maxing out there credit cards are the people who have no knowledge of the guns and ammo market. They are the general dumb public who think and act as a group. They are the idiots who 6 months ago were lining up at Black Friday sales, trampling over one another to get a $200 laptop or $5 toasters - aka "the Sheeple"

I don't think anyone here falls into that category.

If you go into economics, there is what is known as price elasticity. While it refers to the responsiveness of a good's price to rise or fall as demand for it increases or decreases. Put on it's head, there is also demand elasticity, or the level of demand that responds to increases or decreases in price.

The thing is, much of the demand we are seeing in the US right now is inelastic - people are buying no matter what the price is. Which I think this is a result of ignorance and inexperience, primarily. Conversely, I bet most people on here have highly elastic demand - if the price goes up, we tend to buy less, if the price goes down, we tend to buy more.

The big driver of this is a government created panic, State-side, that's driving hordes of panicky, non-gun owners to stack up on what they can. The disruptions we are seeing up here, I believe are a consequence of this action in the US. Simply put, ammo manufacturers know they have a bigger market to serve up in the US and triage our market much lower (as they should - if they want to maximize their profits).

Now the big thing is - why did the US government create a panic in the first place? My assertion is to divert attention away from the market and the economy, which are rigged and, if you are one of the "Sheeple" robbing you of your wealth.

That being the case, unless there is a catastrophe in the market/economy - a currency crisis, a stock market collapse, a major banking failure, or China or Japan doing a run on their holdings of US treasuries - I don't think there will be any substantial new gun control measures in the US.

When one of these crises occur (and I am of the opinion you will see one sometime in the next 5-10 years) - I can guarantee you, you will see an executive order by Obama basically nullifying the 2nd Amendment. The thing is, between now and then, with the latest developments relating to gun control in the US - I expect things to calm down considerably and yes, I do think a significant reduction in demand and accompanying correction in the price of guns and ammo will be a result when the Sheeple who bought $80 bricks of .22 or $5000 AR-15's realize there's 2nd Amendment rights are safe... for the moment.
 
Prices will maintain their increase as the major producers will see the orders slowing and react to reduce production. Yes it is just a matter of time 'till supply will meet demand and no one knows when that will be. Just because supply meets demand doesn't mean prices will drop, massive oversupply would see that and I doubt that is going to happen. The major's are always quick to change one way or the other and will do that again when needed.

Right now we are entering the varmit shooting time of the year (providing snow finally melts on the prairies) where the consumption of .22 shooting increases exponentially so demand will still exceed supply. That will change in early fall helping supply and lessening demand.

Manufacturing occurs in cycles in some cal's and often it can be weeks between cycles. When it comes to .22 most producers have a line specifically for that cal as demand is always high and normally peaks every spring, remaining high thru the summer months. I wish I knew just how many .22 rounds are fired on any given day in NA. It must be staggering when you consider the number of gun owners in NA.

The one thing that is not being properly addressed are the new shooters and there are tens of thousands who will like when I first started shoot for quantity more than quality. Firearms purchases are still high and my neighbor witnessed this last week near Palm Desert. Sent me a email he was waiting outside a sporting good store wanting to look at golf clubs. Said he and nine others were waiting for the store to open and when it did he went to the golf section and everyone else when to the gun counter. As he was looking for a new driver he witnessed people buying firearms, not just looking.

I have purchased lots in the cal's we shoot, not a hoarder just shoot a lot, especially during the good weather months.
 
ALBERTA BOY said:
There is a massive ammo shortage. There is no resupply guys.

You all remember the massive amounts of ammo that Cabela's had stockpiled, right?

I warned you all about the size of their weekly shipments and how their inventory was dwindling.

Here is what they have now: NOTHING. these pictures were taken on Friday right after their DELIVERY. There is even less now!

Note that the boxes in the back are 12ga, not 22LR. The whole top shelf that used to be stacked with 22lr is now used for other things.

The bottom area only has a few cases where it used to be packed top to bottom left to right. They don't even have minimags anymore. They don't have bushmans or 333s....

The shortage has been here for a while, we have simply been using up what was already in store and already in the channel. It's almost GONE and there is nothing to replace it.

Reality check.


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What on God's green earth did we do 3 years ago when there was no Cabela's in Edmonton with sparse shelves to tell us how low supply was?

Or the other half dozen Walmart's that have limited supply on their shelves and have opened since?

We just seem to be going backwards as shooters in what is available to us. I guess I will have to dip into my Zombie Ammo, Critical Defence, Critcal Duty, Custom, TAP, and Steel Match (and then move on to some Speers, Remington, etc) now that I am running low on my old supply of Winchester White Box.

Damn this generation all to hell. I want more!!!
 
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