ammo situation worsening.... and worsening..... and worsening ....... May 5, updated

[Chuckbuster]

At the Crean Hill gunshow today, I saw bricks of AE solids going for $25. Mind you, I didn't see much else in the way of .22 ammo. On a more interesting note, I saw primers going for $7/100 and $8/100 at one retailers table. Notably, I didn't see much else in the way of primers either.

 

[ruffbird]

One table I noticed a box of winchester (1000) Large pistol primers going for $45. That was all they had or had left at 10:30

Lots of other tables had shotgun, rifle & some pistol ammo at bigger prices than new stuff!

Some other stuff was reasonably priced, but I'm starting to think they should pay us to attend these shows....

 

[Chuckbuster]

I think it was the same table...I was told about the $45 LP primers, but when I went to look, the primers they had were $70 and $80 per 1000.

 

[harbl_the_cat]

At a retail level, a price increase is inevitable. Just like almost all other commodities. I think when the hoarders decide to liquidate, we may see the opposite pressure. Retailers may not want to see ammo sitting on the shelves while the hoarders come to their senses.

Maybe.

Thing is, I don't think there are very many "hoarders" who are buying now at elevated prices.

I think most of the "hoarding" was done by shooters who lived through the 2008-2009 shortage, then saw a price correction between 2010-2012.

The thing is, guys who bought tens of thousands of rounds of ammo in the lead up to 2013, are probably the LEAST likely to be the one's buying aggressively with the price going up. If anything, I bet these guys are probably the one's cashing in on the massive run on price in the US. I know if the price went up double to triple what I was buying for 6 months ago, I'd be on the EE selling half to one third what I bought back then.

I think the one's you find detestable are the "flippers," who buy up what's available for retail sale, then try to resell it at a hiked up price. These people especially, won't be sitting on large caches of ammo after demand has subsided.

The only people who I think will be sitting on the ammo the "flippers" were selling will be the suckers who bought from those very same flippers - but the thing is, I don't even think THESE people are buying large cache's of ammo. I really don't see the situation in the US being a case of a small number of people buying a large amount of ammunition, but instead a large number of people buying a small amount of ammunition - and that's why I really can't see the price of ammo returning to their pre-crisis price.

.223 in the US, IIRC, was in the $0.30-0.50/round range. It's presently in the $0.80-1/round range. I think it's more likely the price will settle in the $0.60-$0.75/round range after the panic buying dies down. Thing is - if that price dynamic happens, if a sucker bought 100 rounds of .223 at $100/box, how likely is it that they will go out and try to sell the same box for $60-$75? I don't think that kind of money is even worth the effort.

I really don't think there are very many people going out and buying 10,000 rounds for $10,000 at these prices.

 

[harbl_the_cat]

Thing is, I don't think there are very many "hoarders" who are buying now at elevated prices.

I think most of the "hoarding" was done by shooters who lived through the 2008-2009 shortage, then saw a price correction between 2010-2012.

The thing is, guys who bought tens of thousands of rounds of ammo in the lead up to 2013, are probably the LEAST likely to be the one's buying aggressively with the price going up. If anything, I bet these guys are probably the one's cashing in on the massive run on price in the US. I know if the price went up double to triple what I was buying for 6 months ago, I'd be on the EE selling half to one third what I bought back then.

I think the one's you find detestable are the "flippers," who buy up what's available for retail sale, then try to resell it at a hiked up price. These people especially, won't be sitting on large caches of ammo after demand has subsided.

The only people who I think will be sitting on the ammo the "flippers" were selling will be the suckers who bought from those very same flippers - but the thing is, I don't even think THESE people are buying large cache's of ammo. I really don't see the situation in the US being a case of a small number of people buying a large amount of ammunition, but instead a large number of people buying a small amount of ammunition - and that's why I really can't see the price of ammo returning to their pre-crisis price.

.223 in the US, IIRC, was in the $0.30-0.50/round range. It's presently in the $0.80-1/round range. I think it's more likely the price will settle in the $0.60-$0.75/round range after the panic buying dies down. Thing is - if that price dynamic happens, if a sucker bought 100 rounds of .223 at $100/box, how likely is it that they will go out and try to sell the same box for $60-$75? I don't think that kind of money is even worth the effort.

I really don't think there are very many people going out and buying 10,000 rounds for $10,000 at these prices.

So this is an observation of the US situation - but regardless of how it unfolds I think we can all agree that there IS an ammo shortage in the US - regardless whether the cause is supply or demand driven - there is a shortage down there.

How about us?

I think we are in the eye of the storm, and a big factor that takes up the slack is... NORINCO! Let's look at .223 to see why (although it's just as applicable with 9mm, .45 ACP, .308, and 7.62x39).

At my LGS (Local Gun Stores), it's not too hard finding US factory loaded .223. Federal AE Tactical is in abundant supply, and the price hasn't really increased (I can find it for $399 for 1000 rounds).

Now the thing is - this is the case, I believe, because CanAm brought in the massive shipment of Norinco .223 (at about $0.25 - 0.30/round), which has picked up the slack for the demand.

Now, CanAm has already announced, they will have a few more shipments this year - but once it's gone - it's gone.

Now consider how most retail stores operate - they don't place new orders for stock until they've reached a certain threshold. American made ammo over the past 6 months probably hasn't been flying off the shelf. Thus, much of the inventory on the shelves right now in the way of US manufactured ammo is probably old stock that isn't moving or hasn't moved very quickly, with the much cheaper Chinese ammo moving faster/soaking up demand.

What happens when that supply ends? Well - what's left is the old stock of US ammo. What happens when that old stock of US ammo is consumed? New stock - and with it, new prices.

The way I see it, especially with .223, but it seems with 9mm and .45 ACP as well - there are one, maybe 2 years, of supply overhang to help keep the price for us Canadians low. What's going to happen when our ammo market is dominated by newly manufactured US ammunition? Personally, my money is on very large price increases.

 

[joe-nwt]

The only problem with your hypothesis is that the supply is the same or exceeds what people were normally shooting last year yet people are still buying quantities far in excess of what they would normally be shooting. So at some point in the future either these same people will have to start shooting a lot more or, when supply once again meets demand they will sell to recoup some capital. The "flippers" will see it coming and gradually sell for less as demand wains. It will be the hoarders, shooting their $50 bricks of 22lr when the retail price settles back to the $30 that will be the losers.

I'll still be shooting $17 bulk packs at that point and still reloading with $24@k primers. Am I bragging? Maybe a little, but hopefully some might learn that this is not necessarily the best time to be hoarding unless you find last years prices. Or a desperate hoarder sometime in the future.

 

[Chuckbuster]

Alright, inquiring minds want to know...where and when did you get the $24 primers?

 

[07blackwater]

I'm still using some $8/1000 wlr's from the 90's. I think I have 600 left lol.

 

[harbl_the_cat]

The only problem with your hypothesis is that the supply is the same or exceeds what people were normally shooting last year yet people are still buying quantities far in excess of what they would normally be shooting. So at some point in the future either these same people will have to start shooting a lot more or, when supply once again meets demand they will sell to recoup some capital. The "flippers" will see it coming and gradually sell for less as demand wains. It will be the hoarders, shooting their $50 bricks of 22lr when the retail price settles back to the $30 that will be the losers.

I'll still be shooting $17 bulk packs at that point and still reloading with $24@k primers. Am I bragging? Maybe a little, but hopefully some might learn that this is not necessarily the best time to be hoarding unless you find last years prices. Or a desperate hoarder sometime in the future.

Well, to your last point - I'm still shooting junky PMC bronze .223 I bought for $0.50/round in 2008. In fact, seeing Federal AE Tactical at $0.40/round in 2010 is the reason I have been hoarding very aggressively for the past 2 years up until this craziness started. I think you're a bit more advanced than me in the years (no offense intended - just an observation - I'm 29), so I think you made the right call 5-10 years ago to stock up.

That said, those of us who haven't been shooting for more than a decade can't invent a time machine and travel back to the early 2000's to buy bricks and bricks worth of ammo - what we CAN do is position ourselves to not NEED to liquidate our holdings (don't go into debt to buy ammo and reduce overall debt), and identify buying opportunities when they arise (I think we're on the same page - last year's price was just that).

That being said, Joe, and I mean this in as respectfully and jokingly - but don't you think it's like the pot calling the kettle black when you're critical of "hoarders" when you yourself were hoarder of yesteryear?

 

[critter928]

Alright, inquiring minds want to know...where and when did you get the $24 primers?

A wise man buys when the price is good, not in time like these. Either last year, and I am willing to bet next year were/are the times to be buying. Not buying on rumours and panic of today.

That being said, SFRC has primers still in stock at $27.99 a thousand and up.

http://www.theammosource.com/index.php?main_page=index&cPath=15_18&sort=20a&page=2

Then again, I am sure someone is now going to clean them out and ask twice as much at the next gunshow.

There is no "shortage", it has just been re-destributed from store shelves to hoarders and entrepreneurs basements and gun show tables trying to make a quick buck. There is greater supply than ever, and even with some increased gun ownership in the US, those first time buyers are not stacking deep like the others are.

 

[Chuckbuster]

I'm still using some $8/1000 wlr's from the 90's. I think I have 600 left lol.

I've been reloading since the late 80s...but I don't ever remember primers for that amount...but then, as the Mrs. likes to point out, I'm getting older and my memory is faulty.

 

[G.Mitchell]

Local shop has cases and cases of rimfire ammo, CCI and Remington. Lots of other CCI ammo as well. They have put a 3 brick max on ALL rimfire.

They haven't put restrictions on anything other than rimfire though. I picked up 250 7.62x39 Hornady SST while I was there.

Ammo is around, PEOPLE are just hoarding it.

I have put away 12,000 round of .22lr just in case, but I shoot them a brick per range trip so that is hardy a stockpile/stash for me.

 

[Chuckbuster]

A wise man buys when the price is good, not in time like these. Either last year, and I am willing to bet next year were/are the times to be buying. Not buying on rumours and panic of today.

That being said, SFRC has primers still in stock at $27.99 a thousand and up.

http://www.theammosource.com/index.php?main_page=index&cPath=15_18&sort=20a&page=2

Well, those prices are pretty much in line with what I've been buying over the past couple of years. I have a couple of bricks of the S&B primers that I got a few years ago for a bit more than in the link. I did see some $70 and $80 bricks of primers today at the gun show...yeah, I gave those a pass. However, I think they did sell a few. In the end, I'm not too concerned about the current situation as I have lots of primers...I was just more curious about what different people paid in different places.

 

[07blackwater]

I've been reloading since the late 80s...but I don't ever remember primers for that amount...but then, as the Mrs. likes to point out, I'm getting older and my memory is faulty.

Kesselrings in Burlington Washington.

 

[Brutus]

Local shop has cases and cases of rimfire ammo, CCI and Remington. Lots of other CCI ammo as well. They have put a 3 brick max on ALL rimfire.

They haven't put restrictions on anything other than rimfire though. I picked up 250 7.62x39 Hornady SST while I was there.

Ammo is around, PEOPLE are just hoarding it.

I have put away 12,000 round of .22lr just in case, but I shoot them a brick per range trip so that is hardy a stockpile/stash for me.

^I believe this too. Sprinkle a little bit of "my one favorite brand X is gone off the shelf" and the feeding frenzy is on.

 

[joe-nwt]

That being said, Joe, and I mean this in as respectfully and jokingly - but don't you think it's like the pot calling the kettle black when you're critical of "hoarders" when you yourself were hoarder of yesteryear?

Absolutely not. When I stockpiled my ammo and components, I didn't leave a shortage for the next guy.

I learned my lesson back in the early 90's, when primers were non-existent due to hoarding. Once the smoke cleared and prices returned to normal, that's when I started "hoarding". You could get good deals, well below normal retail, by buying in quantity. As an added bonus, you could get what you wanted, not just what happened to be on the shelf. It will be an added irritation to have to shoot $50 Wildcats when better ammo will be available at better prices. My only regret is not laying in a better supply of YellowJackets.....

Alright, inquiring minds want to know...where and when did you get the $24 primers?

Believe it or not, this was the standard case lot price on primers not that long ago. You could do better if you had more cash in your pocket.....

 

[harbl_the_cat]

Absolutely not. When I stockpiled my ammo and components, I didn't leave a shortage for the next guy.

I learned my lesson back in the early 90's, when primers were non-existent due to hoarding. Once the smoke cleared and prices returned to normal, that's when I started "hoarding". You could get good deals, well below normal retail, by buying in quantity. As an added bonus, you could get what you wanted, not just what happened to be on the shelf. It will be an added irritation to have to shoot $50 Wildcats when better ammo will be available at better prices. My only regret is not laying in a better supply of YellowJackets.....

So have we been debating doing the same thing all along, just completely misunderstanding one another?

My point all along has been to be stockpiling guns and ammo during the 2010-2012 time period (including accumulating any ammo that's available now that's left over at the 2012 prices or lower), which was the lull after the 2008-2009 crisis.

I think it's dumb to chase the ammo when the price is going up, and I'm with you all the way about buying in quantity from DISTRIBUTORS instead of retailers, unless you need to buy smaller amounts.

Case in point, last year, I bought tens of thousands of rounds worth of components directly from a distributor.

IIRC, I got it all for about 25% less than what retail was charging. They were MORE than happy to sell to me - and I recall seeing retail packages of what I bought sitting on the shelves of my LGS's for months at a time.

Really, that's the BEST indicator of a good time to buy - when no body else wants it or, like you said, when every is looking to dump it. That's also why I'm buying gold and silver very aggressively right now (billions of dollars worth are selling off).

Buying into a mania is ALWAYS dangerous. When everyone around you is HAPPY to buy something at a high (or higher price), it's a very good indicator that it is over valued.

Buying something that people don't care about or proactively getting rid of is a good indicator it's highly undervalued (going back 20 pages to my philosophy on pennies).

 

[joe-nwt]

The discussion to this point, I think, has been why there is a shortage on the shelves at some outlets at this time. I believe it to be nothing more than many people hoarding at the same time. I also believe if we want prices to not jump too drastically, now is not the time to be hoarding more that you need for the short term.

Unless, I suppose, you get really good prices. Sounds like those are getting fewer and farther between....

 

[harbl_the_cat]

The discussion to this point, I think, has been why there is a shortage on the shelves at some outlets at this time. I believe it to be nothing more than many people hoarding at the same time. I also believe if we want prices to not jump too drastically, now is not the time to be hoarding more that you need for the short term.

Unless, I suppose, you get really good prices. Sounds like those are getting fewer and farther between....

Ok, so I think we are mostly on the same page.

I can see your point - I do think you're right that IN CANADA, a handful of people are hoarding and this itself may be one of the biggest causes for the shortages we are experiencing up here.

I think the US it's another story. Down there, I think it is a case of everyone who always thought they would have the right to own a gun are coming to a realization that right is in danger. Coupled with the worst economy in 2 generations, the massive government institution of a police state, and the constant state of war, I think a lot of average Americans are rightly starting to be scared at the prospects of an uncertain future. This, more than anything, I think is the driver of Americans to run out and buy guns - but the thing is, THEIR impact on the overall supply WILL impact our supply as well.

 

[noea77]

The only shortage of ammo I see around is the .22. Everything else seems well stocked.