ammo situation worsening.... and worsening..... and worsening ....... May 5, updated

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CT had a get 10% in Canadian Tire Money on your CT Mastercard promotion today. I took a bit of a chance and bought all the 100 pack, 12 gauge 8 shot. 5 would be enough to get a 15 pack of Winchester 2 3/4 slugs. Also bought all the .22 Blazer, 50 round packs at $2.99 per pack. A bit pricey, but the cheapest they had. Also cleaned out all the .22 mag winchesters too.
 
All the local stores around my place still have everything from the 12 guage turkey shot to the 1600 rounds of CCI .22 not looking forward to start feeling the shortage all you guys are talking about
 
All the local stores around my place still have everything from the 12 guage turkey shot to the 1600 rounds of CCI .22 not looking forward to start feeling the shortage all you guys are talking about

Do you live in an urban or rural community?
 
Joe, mind chiming in on the composition of the shooting community in your area? Personally, my club has over 300 handgun shooters, and there are at least 6 other groups in my city that have over 50-200 active shooters that do high volume (more than 50 rounds per shooting session on a weekly to biweekly basis). That's over and above the casual or rural folk who keep guns for casual plinking, varmint and pest control, and hunting and probably don't shoot more than 50 - 100 rounds per year

There are only 26,000 people in the imediate area. Our shooting club usually has 200+ members. We don't have an indoor range. There is also an impromptu range at a quarry outside of town limits that sees a lot of action. The aboriginals hunt year round.

That being said, we only have 2 ammuntion outlets. Walmart and CT. I'm assuming most of the volume shooters get there ammo from the south. But I know there are a few stackers in the area.

You would still have a hard time convincing me that gun club members are suddenly shooting Alberta's 22lr supply into oblivium. Like I said, the supply chain was sufficient until recently. The only new variable is the hoarders. And if they are hoarding 22lr, my bet is they are the cause of all the ammo shortages.

Now that you are starting to buy expensive ammo, that you don't really need since you already have a stash, have you considered the possibility that you may loose money if you don't resell it at a premium down the road? Because I'll tell you, myself, if I had to pay $50 for a bulk pack I just wouldn't bother. And I hope you aren't speculating on those few diehards that might.
 
There are only 26,000 people in the imediate area. Our shooting club usually has 200+ members. We don't have an indoor range. There is also an impromptu range at a quarry outside of town limits that sees a lot of action. The aboriginals hunt year round.

That being said, we only have 2 ammuntion outlets. Walmart and CT. I'm assuming most of the volume shooters get there ammo from the south. But I know there are a few stackers in the area.

You would still have a hard time convincing me that gun club members are suddenly shooting Alberta's 22lr supply into oblivium. Like I said, the supply chain was sufficient until recently. The only new variable is the hoarders. And if they are hoarding 22lr, my bet is they are the cause of all the ammo shortages.

Now that you are starting to buy expensive ammo, that you don't really need since you already have a stash, have you considered the possibility that you may loose money if you don't resell it at a premium down the road? Because I'll tell you, myself, if I had to pay $50 for a bulk pack I just wouldn't bother. And I hope you aren't speculating on those few diehards that might.

Well, the bulk packs were the same price they were for the past year or so, and with the 10% extra CT money, I figure it was an even better deal. For as long as I've been shooting, every time Canadian Tire has a ”get extra Canadian Tire money" with your purchase, I buy a little extra. This time I was no different.

Also, while I have been focusing on .22 for this thread, that's only because I've been in the market during this time for it. The 9mm and .223 supplies have started to lean out too, but I don't track them too close, as I reload those and have components set aside for around 10,000 - 20,000 rounds that I've been hoarding for about 2 -3 years.

Really it's not just the speculation that the price will go up substantially that drives me to stack ammo (among other things). As I've mentioned before, I have a LOT of savings and in the hierarchy of things, I feel much safer parking my excess wealth in ammo, than in a no interest bank account and even in physical cash.

I have preset criteria too, to determine my pricing. In the case of ammo, its. 5-10% cheaper than what retail is selling it for, if and when I decide to sell it. Even with all this madness, I think ammo prices will trend upwards and track or exceed inflation, so on a 5-10 year time frame, I consider ammo to be a very sound investment, a hedge on inflation, and a form of diversification against my other, more volatile investments.

The key thing though is oto get it at a good price.

In the case of ammo, I can't envision any practical scenario where the price will drop much below last years pricing so last years pricing is what I'm buying at.
 
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Would you guys be against doing our weekly "surplus ammo is drying up" thread here too? We can save space, and I can half the cheeky comments I have to make to feel good about myself. What do you say?

yeah, Im ok with that. Lets combine all the "ammo supply is falling" threads into one big superthread. Bigger than our ammo stockpiles....lol
 
I'd like to know how all the hoarders can afford to buy all this ammo? I make decent coin but I cant afford to buy hundreds of dollars worth every paycheque....
 
I'd like to know how all the hoarders can afford to buy all this ammo? I make decent coin but I cant afford to buy hundreds of dollars worth every paycheque....

Credit Cards?

Go without?

It is irrationally driven behaviour to begin with, so why would the method they choose to pay for it be a rationale choice.

Like drugs, if you think you NEED it, you will find a way to get the money to do it.
 
It's really simple economics, supply and demand. We all know that our ammo and components comes from the US, at least the vast majority of it. Right now the demand is far exceeding the supply down south, whether that's due to a real threat is anyone's guess. We also know that sooner or later, that shortage will arrive in Canada, as our shelves will certainly not be the first to get restocked.

It's also for the same reasons Epps sold out of Ruger 10/22's in hours of receipt of their last shipment. I was in a few gun stores in the US over the past few weeks. The shelves are bare of reloading supplies and all ammo had limits imposed. I also didn't see a single Ruger 10/22, FWIW. This seems to be a common trend across the entire US, in talking with friends from there. I did not see it to the same extent in 2008/09 when Obama was first elected.

If you feel like hoarding, go ahead, it's your money to spend as you see fit. I don't understand why some get so upset over someone else's purchase decisions. If you don't believe there'll be a shortage, then you have nothing to worry about, right?
 
I'd like to know how all the hoarders can afford to buy all this ammo? I make decent coin but I cant afford to buy hundreds of dollars worth every paycheque....

I don't get paycheques, anymore which is exactly why I buy a lot of ammo.

When people are buying ammo by going into deeply into debt, that will be a pretty good indication it is grossly over-valued. I pay cash only, or if I use my CC, it's only in amounts I already have in the bank and that I never carry a balance for (same thing with all precious metals).

It really is irrelevant how much your income is, what matters more is your liabilities - Your debt load.

Our communist education system doesn't teach this, but excess production and savings are what generate wealth. Excess consumption and debt create poverty - and debt should be avoided like the plague, except for emergencies or where the debt can be used to generate greater cash flow than the interest paid.

Ammo doesn't generate any cash flow, but unconsumed, it is a form of savings that is liquid, has a market, and moreover natural supply constraints. Personally, I consider ammo a form of savings that cannot incur the expense of inflation, and thus, can be categorized as an asset.

Most people don't think in terms of assets and liabilities, expenses and income. They only focus on income - which is exactly why the middle class in Western civilization is getting wiped out. Income is 1/4 of becoming wealthy, or if not, financially independent. of course, the government neither wants you to be wealthy or independent at all, which is why they don't teach it anywhere and proactively encourage people to act in ways that ultimately will make them poor and in a state of total dependence.

As for my regular update. On my way to TSE for my weekend shoot, I stopped by the Macleod Trail Canadian Tire and they were all out of cheap .22. i was a bit worried, since the 12 gauge bulk packs were a bot cheaper at this CT ($59/250 shells of misc birdshot - or $0.23/shell, compared to the $0.26 I paid. I also bought the last 3 boxes I'd 2.75" slugs for $13.99/15 shells - about the going rate from last year.

I checked out the Walmart across the street, same deal. I was a bit surprised that they had the same bulk packs I bought from CT for 31.50 or $1.50 more than what I paid for the, before the discount.

Went to WSS after, and the cheapest .22 they had was Rem Thumderbolts at $250 If you bought 10 bricks, so about $0.05 per round. I would have bought the last box, but it only had 9 bricks, and that was all they had (they had plenty of stock of the more expensive brands), and with 9 bricks, it would have been $27 per brick.

I checked out the Walmart next door and to my surprise, they had 5 mini bricks of the win 333s for $15 or about $0.04 per brick. I bout them all.

I wasn't going to buy more, but at my club meeting this week I realized I under budgeted how much ammo I was going to need for my youth program, so I made up the difference.

Whats interesting is that it looks like price is starting to reach an equilibrium to meet up with supply, only it looks like the increases have began. I'm used to $0.03 -$0.04 per round .22, but honestly, I think we are now in the $0.06 per round era and the $0.04 per round days are a thing to be reminisced about.

I had a thought to what Joe said about $50 per box birdshot. I really don't think it's improbable. After all, a short while ago many people thought $1000 per ounce gold was impossible, but today gold is at $1600, and anyone waiting to buy at under $1000 have been a long time waiting. I suspect if gold went down to $1000 again, the folks who waited probably wont be able or will be unwilling to get any.
 
Our communist education system doesn't teach this, but excess production and savings are what generate wealth. Excess consumption and debt create poverty - and debt should be avoided like the plague, except for emergencies or where the debt can be used to generate greater cash flow than the interest paid.

Interesting. I learned all about this in high school in commerce class. It was an elective, and some students did not take it. But it is still offered. I tend to forget how lucky I was to have gown up in a small city with an excellent education system. Look at the classes offered here {YRHS}, this is a community of only 15,000 (not including surrounding area). I guess this being Saskatchewan, you could consider it a "commie" school system, but it gets results, and it gets funding.

On topic. I have not seen much decrease in .22 LR. It seems to be moving a bit faster, but it's not critical at the moment. I am sure larger cities will have the issues in comparison to a farming community where demand is a bit lower.
 
As for my regular update. On my way to TSE for my weekend shoot, I stopped by the Macleod Trail Canadian Tire and they were all out of cheap .22. i was a bit worried, since the 12 gauge bulk packs were a bot cheaper at this CT ($59/250 shells of misc birdshot - or $0.23/shell, compared to the $0.26 I paid. I also bought the last 3 boxes I'd 2.75" slugs for $13.99/15 shells - about the going rate from last year.

I checked out the Walmart across the street, same deal. I was a bit surprised that they had the same bulk packs I bought from CT for 31.50 or $1.50 more than what I paid for the, before the discount.

Went to WSS after, and the cheapest .22 they had was Rem Thumderbolts at $250 If you bought 10 bricks, so about $0.05 per round. I would have bought the last box, but it only had 9 bricks, and that was all they had (they had plenty of stock of the more expensive brands), and with 9 bricks, it would have been $27 per brick.

I checked out the Walmart next door and to my surprise, they had 5 mini bricks of the win 333s for $15 or about $0.04 per brick. I bout them all.

And while you were burning gas, wasting time and giving economics lessons, I went on CanAm's website and ordered .22 ammo for less than those prices you found. :D
 
And while you were burning gas, wasting time and giving economics lessons, I went on CanAm's website and ordered .22 ammo for less than those prices you found. :D

I like to keep tabs on the retal side, and its not like I'm buying it for myself.

Also, it keeps me occupied while I'm rocking my daughter to sleep.
 
Interesting. I learned all about this in high school in commerce class. It was an elective, and some students did not take it. But it is still offered. I tend to forget how lucky I was to have gown up in a small city with an excellent education system. Look at the classes offered here {YRHS}, this is a community of only 15,000 (not including surrounding area). I guess this being Saskatchewan, you could consider it a "commie" school system, but it gets results, and it gets funding.

On topic. I have not seen much decrease in .22 LR. It seems to be moving a bit faster, but it's not critical at the moment. I am sure larger cities will have the issues in comparison to a farming community where demand is a bit lower.

That is very beneficial for you but it should be a required class for elementary school age kids, not an elective for high school kids.

Of course we are living in the Obama age and communism is the defacto system that prevails:

Is it any wonder Americans are stocking up?
 
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Had coffee with a friend today who happened to go to a sporting goods store yesterday with a buddy who was looking for a gun. Told me when he got there three guys were at the counter and had a lot of powder that they were buying. Never thought too much about it but asked the owner who they were, was told they were from Calgary and they couldn't find powder there so drove to buy from him. One way trip, 317 MILES.

When I asked him how much they purchased he told me he never looked that close but it was a lot.
 
Had coffee with a friend today who happened to go to a sporting goods store yesterday with a buddy who was looking for a gun. Told me when he got there three guys were at the counter and had a lot of powder that they were buying. Never thought too much about it but asked the owner who they were, was told they were from Calgary and they couldn't find powder there so drove to buy from him. One way trip, 317 MILES.

When I asked him how much they purchased he told me he never looked that close but it was a lot.

So they drove to Vernon to buy powder and pay extra taxes because all of Calgary and area is allegedly out, when there are several stores in Edmonton, half the distance and no provincial tax, and as of this past week still had plenty.

MMMMkay.
 
So they drove to Vernon to buy powder and pay extra taxes because all of Calgary and area is allegedly out, when there are several stores in Edmonton, half the distance and no provincial tax, and as of this past week still had plenty.

MMMMkay.

Actually if you checked you would see I said 317 miles and Vernon is 345 miles. Try mapquest, pretty accurate site.

Selins is only selling one pound per customer like I mentioned in a previous post.

You should try to get your facts straight.Laugh2
 
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