ammo situation worsening.... and worsening..... and worsening ....... May 5, updated

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I updated the original post showing an article that DHS in the US is back buying ammo. They are buying such huge quantities that's is now pretty obvious its an indirect form of gun control. ITs nuts the amount they are buying and is exactly the reason the common folk cannot find ammo. Yes its hoarders causing the shortage, and the hoarders are the U.S. feds.

A friend was at a Canada Post office, and the postal employee told my friend that the Local Gun Store has tried to ship Ammo to the U.S. . The lgs advised the postal employee that they get many calls daily from Americans desperately trying to buy ammo.

Nothing is staying on the LGS shelf long now. It does trickle in and then flies out fast. Sales are up 40% from last year at my LGS.
 
I'm not telling you, stay away hoarder!:p;) Ok, they call it a city but there is only about 12,000 for population.

Eeek... TMI...

Seriously though, I'm good on ammo.

But yeah, I think the ammo situation here in Calgary looks like it's in a bit of a lull - but we'll see how things pan out a few months from now. I'm still sticking by my call fundamentally (re: long term price increases).

Also, I don't think there is a shortage - I just think there is an 1) increase in demand due to panic buying (temporary) and 2) abnormal inflationary pressure in the commodity markets that that will cause decreases in supply (permanent). I SAVE ammo because of the second factor, not the first.
 
Today I was at the Wholesale Sports here in Saskatoon and there were a couple of American hunters up for spring bear season. When they walked past the centerfire rifle ammo aisle they stopped dead and their jaws hit the floor. They had to take pictures so that the folks back home would believe them. They were also amazed at the low prices.
 
Eeek... TMI...

Seriously though, I'm good on ammo.

But yeah, I think the ammo situation here in Calgary looks like it's in a bit of a lull - but we'll see how things pan out a few months from now. I'm still sticking by my call fundamentally (re: long term price increases).

Also, I don't think there is a shortage - I just think there is an 1) increase in demand due to panic buying (temporary) and 2) abnormal inflationary pressure in the commodity markets that that will cause decreases in supply (permanent). I SAVE ammo because of the second factor, not the first.

I agree 100%
 
Your making the assumption those of us SAVING ammo are over extending ourselves with debt to buy it. I think most of us who are buying in volume are paying cash for it (at least I am).


I have no doubt that some of the hoarders are over extending themselves to buy in volume but that isn't what I was getting at. Right now the ammo manufacturers are going balls to the walls to try to keep up, adding more shifts, and building additional facilities to meet the demand. Once the hoarding stops, there will be excess capacity that is not being used up, resulting in lower pricing. Just gotta be patient....
 
LMAO only time I have ever heard wholesale sports and low prices in the same sentence. The Americans were probably lost and asked someone where the Cabelas was. Whenever I want to be treated like a second rate citizen I just go to wholesale sports. I sometimes feel invisible after being ignored by the staff. I then stroll to cabelas and am treated like gold.
Today I was at the Wholesale Sports here in Saskatoon and there were a couple of American hunters up for spring bear season. When they walked past the centerfire rifle ammo aisle they stopped dead and their jaws hit the floor. They had to take pictures so that the folks back home would believe them. They were also amazed at the low prices.
 
I find it hard to believe anyone would pay more for Norinco over american made ammo. Not saying Norinco is a bad round, just stating the obvious lower quality control. I can get sub moa with AE out of my heavy barrel bolt gun. I doubt anyone is getting that with Norc.
 
I find it hard to believe anyone would pay more for Norinco over american made ammo. Not saying Norinco is a bad round, just stating the obvious lower quality control. I can get sub moa with AE out of my heavy barrel bolt gun. I doubt anyone is getting that with Norc.

Who says anything about paying more for Norinco than US ammo?

I think the US ammo we're going to receive will just be higher priced. When that happens, provided there's less supply of Norinco, it stands to reason the Norinco ammo that's left will HAVE to go up in price similarly - or rather, buyers will be willing to pay a higher price for it.

Think of it this way. If today, Federal AE is $0.40/round and Nork Yellow Box is $0.25 - it makes sense to pay $0.25/round to buy Yellow box. If Federal AE goes up to, say, $0.80/round - AND there is no more Yellow Box being imported, odds are, the Yellow Box will start creeping up in price - even at $0.50/round, it would still be a bargain compared to the new price of Fed AE.

Especially with all the cool, new .223 toys coming in, I suspect not a lot of guys are going to be stockpiling and MANY new buyers will be entering into the market - when they see $0.50/round Yellow Box compared to $0.80 Federal - they will absolutely buy the Yellow Box - provided there are no other, cheaper alternatives (which frankly, I don't see coming).

I have no doubt that some of the hoarders are over extending themselves to buy in volume but that isn't what I was getting at. Right now the ammo manufacturers are going balls to the walls to try to keep up, adding more shifts, and building additional facilities to meet the demand. Once the hoarding stops, there will be excess capacity that is not being used up, resulting in lower pricing. Just gotta be patient....

The beauty of it is even when the extra supply hits the markets and the panic buying subsides, I really don't see the price returning to the previous price. Like I said before, I think you might see a move like this:

Dec 2012 - $0.40/round
Dec 2013 - $0.80/round
Dec 2014 - $0.60/round

That being the case, if you could get it at $0.40/round - you really can't lose out. Not that I'm recommending everyone go out and buy ammo. That's just my opinion. I've been wrong before - I could be wrong about this - but I put my money where my mouth is.

The thing I realized is, especially with ammo, it takes a LOT of discipline to be able to sit and wait it out to see. After all - if you get frustrated by buying ammo at a high price, you tend to feel better by just shooting it :)
 
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The beauty of it is even when the extra supply hits the markets and the panic buying subsides, I really don't see the price returning to the previous price.

Totally agree, the price won't come down unless people stop buying. The market is being tested, if it will bear it, the price will stay high.
 
If the price was $0.40 a round, then when supply dwindles it goes to $0.80 a round and is in demand at that price, what is to stop the price from coming down?
Look at gas... is the price REALLY that high because of costs or shortage? it was at one point, now it's just everyone is used to that price and we reminice about when it was under a dollar a litre
 
I was in P&D & Milarm in Edmonton and Bass Pro in Calgary this weekend, if there is a shortage of ammo it was not noticeable. Powder and primers were a different thing though.
 
I have no doubt that some of the hoarders are over extending themselves to buy in volume but that isn't what I was getting at. Right now the ammo manufacturers are going balls to the walls to try to keep up, adding more shifts, and building additional facilities to meet the demand. Once the hoarding stops, there will be excess capacity that is not being used up, resulting in lower pricing. Just gotta be patient....

I think it will be a long time before supply and demand level out. The demand is up significantly in the U.S. because there are many new buyers. It used to be suppliers could keep up with the existing demand of LEO, target shooters, hunters etc. The number of NEW gun buyers in the U.S. has skyrocketed. People are sincerely fearful of what? not sure but they are fearful, consequently loading up, and that is driving the shortage, big time. I think it will be at least a year before this all settles down. Right now manufacturers in the U.S. are backordered 2Million on guns alone, 1000 rounds per gun, and the ammo back order is 2 billion rounds.
 
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