ammo situation worsening.... and worsening..... and worsening ....... May 5, updated
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critter928
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First time "buyers" are not new "shooters".
Most people who own a gun in the US (or Canada for that matter) don't use more than a few rounds of ammunition a year, if any.
So most of the new buyers will buy a couple of boxes of ammunition with the gun and put it away, and only bought it now because they fear they might not be able to in the future.
No body is "consuming" this extra demand on ammunition, they are buying it and stacking it away be they first time buyers, or seasoned veterans. That will result in a glut in the future when their inventories are full from either lack of space or lack of funds to buy more.
Even your quote on the background checks is telling, as the new buyers are not an infinite pool of people and is already falling;
So this year those the buyers have consistently went down every month with the last month a huge drop of 20% less, and down 32% in only 4 months.
The buying frenzy of new guns is running out of steam, and it is only the continued fear mongering that is creating and sustaining the panic demand and hoarding of ammunition.
I am not panicing, nor am I telling others to, I am simply reporting the facts. If the facts are scary then so be it. I can source any ammo I want, as I am creative enough to do so. I can also tell you that our local CanTire is OUT of 22lr, our lgs is flat out of powder, and can order me some, but with NO commitment on when I will get it, same with primers, and ammo, but no promises as the wholesalers do NOT have stock and can't get it. How does this rise to the level of Panic? Facts don't equal panic.
I am telling guys if you think you are going to need something in the next year or two buy it when you see it as you might not find it otherwise, is that Panic? no, just the facts.
29% of the U.S. population believes that they will be in an armed conflict against their government within the next few years and are therefore buying more guns and ammo than before.... as reported by CNN. Is that Panic? Not from me, just reporting the facts. Facts affect us all, you can either believe them or not. makes absolutely no difference to me.
I am not limited to reading the local coffee news in small town utopia. I like to know the bigger picture.
Of course there's no shortage of ammo in the US and that is why the big guys including Mal-Wart are limiting you to three boxes per day. Many areas have virtually little if any .22 and that isn't just from hoarding but also from it's varmit time where the usage of .22 goes thru the roof.
Powder and primers are now showing signs of supply issues, where I buy most of my shooting supplies they are SOLD OUT of ALL popular powders....that's right they have ZERO left.
The story on Fox News a couple of days ago interviewing a dealer who had 50 million rounds on order and was hoping to get 10 million this year. Heck that proves beyond any doubt there's no shortage in the US.
We all know there's box cars of ammo sitting at the Canada/US border at North Portal SK just waiting for customs clearance...
Prices will remain higher than they traditionally were as higher prices have the tendancy for higher profit and shareholders like the word profit. Of course the stupidity that is happening will not last however manufacturers will keep prices as high as possible.
The statictics show gun sales slowing and we all know that is bound to happen. Sales of firearms in the US in 2012 was around 12.5 million, first four months of 2013 close to 9 million. They are going to have a record year for sure.
Everything Obama has tried has turned into his worst nightmare, first MEDICARE and now GUN GRABBING. The man will leave a legacy of debt and stupidity. Well deserved.
Powder and primers are now showing signs of supply issues, where I buy most of my shooting supplies they are SOLD OUT of ALL popular powders....that's right they have ZERO left.
The story on Fox News a couple of days ago interviewing a dealer who had 50 million rounds on order and was hoping to get 10 million this year. Heck that proves beyond any doubt there's no shortage in the US.
We all know there's box cars of ammo sitting at the Canada/US border at North Portal SK just waiting for customs clearance...
Prices will remain higher than they traditionally were as higher prices have the tendancy for higher profit and shareholders like the word profit. Of course the stupidity that is happening will not last however manufacturers will keep prices as high as possible.
The statictics show gun sales slowing and we all know that is bound to happen. Sales of firearms in the US in 2012 was around 12.5 million, first four months of 2013 close to 9 million. They are going to have a record year for sure.
Everything Obama has tried has turned into his worst nightmare, first MEDICARE and now GUN GRABBING. The man will leave a legacy of debt and stupidity. Well deserved.
I agree that some cities in the U.S. are close to turmoil but this would not affect the .22 stocks, If someone was wanting to protect their home from marauders they would pick a better caliber ,especially if they can't shoot that good! I just came back from my local wally world. They have just restocked their .22 case with a crapload of winchester 555 and 333, the 555 brick is $21.95. I ordered the cci box from my local ctc 3 weeks ago and got it last week! They don't have much on the shelves but the clerk said they don't usually have much this time of year, no demand for it, but you can order whatever is on their site and pick it up 2 weeks later! I understand that the s might hit the fan in the U.S. but for now it isn't really affecting us much. I started a thread for guys looking for ammo and not finding it so we could help one another out!! Not on person asked,, that will tell you people are finding what they are looking for!
I believe most on this site are fairly comfortable with what they have or are picking up a bit more but we are such a small group compared to the states that our ammo needs are a drop in the bucket!
However,, if it does hit the fan in the U.S., then even in Canada there will be some panic buying of guns and ammo, the shortage would come on quick if that were to happen! Pus if Justine gets in, well, he would be dropping the hammer big time on ownership and ammo purchases.
So, for that reason, yes, if you see it at a good price buy it, but we shouldn't be buying overpriced ammo yet, no need! I think the chinese and europeans will supply us very well with almost everything we need at an affordable price! So much so that I think unscrupulous groups from the U.S. will be coming up and smuggling it back to the states to profit or hoard!
I believe most on this site are fairly comfortable with what they have or are picking up a bit more but we are such a small group compared to the states that our ammo needs are a drop in the bucket!
However,, if it does hit the fan in the U.S., then even in Canada there will be some panic buying of guns and ammo, the shortage would come on quick if that were to happen! Pus if Justine gets in, well, he would be dropping the hammer big time on ownership and ammo purchases.
So, for that reason, yes, if you see it at a good price buy it, but we shouldn't be buying overpriced ammo yet, no need! I think the chinese and europeans will supply us very well with almost everything we need at an affordable price! So much so that I think unscrupulous groups from the U.S. will be coming up and smuggling it back to the states to profit or hoard!
critter928
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They are not "facts" when you either plain make them up (like this will go on for "the next year or two") or twist polls to say something they did not (the poll of 29% did not say they think armed conflict will happen in the next 5 years it said they endorse it as an option and there was no timeline, so can comprehend the difference in those statements?).
And where did you get that wholesalers "do NOT have stock and can't get it"? As this thread is a testament to the fact "wholesalers" are getting stock, and it is hitting store shelves, even if it does not stay there long right now, or custom orders cannot be given a commitment on when it will arrive (which FFS how long have you been shooting as I have never had anything more than an indefinite future date on anything ordered in).
So from the first post in the thread you have been trying to create panic where there does not need to be any, and it appears you will be only satisfied when we start acting like some of our American neighbours and get spun into a frenzy and believe that we have to buy now as it won't be there tomorrow.
There is exactly ZERO evidence of that. Manufacturers are at full tilt, there are no laws waiting to be tabled to affect the ammunition supply (the ability of the manufactures to keep pumping out ammunition), and contrary to your interpretation of a poll, 29% of Americans don't think a civil war is about to break out, even if the poll shows the 29% of the just over 800 people polled think it is a viable option.
So your posts are short on "facts", and full of fear-monegring and BS to try and convince others of your view the sky is falling.
There will be supply tomorrow, the next day, and the day after.
The "buying" frenzy of first time US buyers is petering out fast (background checks are already down 32% this year and down every month this year), and ammunition is still being produced, bought and sold, even if scooped from the store shelves and sold at a mark up at gun shows in the US. As for here, it still hits the store shelves here, and contrary to your BS "wholesalers" still get ammunition and still pass it onto stores.
In fact, I still say more variety and stock available in both guns and ammunition than there was a decade ago.
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Actually, I've also observed this trend. Same with reloading components.
Here is the article, http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog...icans-say-us-headed-toward-armed-revolution-/
A survey of Republicans found nearly half agreed that “an armed revolution in order to protect liberties might be necessary in the next few years.”
The poll, from Farleigh Dickinson University’s Public Mind, surveyed a random sampling of 863 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus-minus 3.4 percentage points.
SPECIAL COVERAGE: Second Amendment and Gun Control
It found 44 percent of registered Republicans believed an armed rebellion could come in the next few years. But only 18 percent of Democrats and 27 percent of independents agreed.
Moreover, only 24 percent of Republicans believed new gun laws were necessary — compared to 73 percent of Democrats. Bipartisan legislation on gun control is not likely in the coming days, one political science professor at Farleigh Dickinson said, in a press release on the poll.
“If there was a bipartisan moment after Sandy Hook to pass gun control legislation, it’s past,” Dan Cassino said. “Partisan views have strongly reasserted themselves, and there’s no sign that they’ll get any weaker.”
The difference in views is due to partisan differences in beliefs about what guns are for, Mr. Cassino said.
“If you truly believe an armed revolution is possible in the near future, you need weapons, and you’re going to be wary about government efforts to take them away,” Mr. Cassino said.
Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog...eaded-toward-armed-revolution-/#ixzz2SoGtZ9mu
Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter
What it Does say is that 29% believe it COULD happen within the next few years. No need to twist words or internet joust, let the readers decide for themselves what the poll results are. It does help understand why there are some pockets in the U.S. where ammo 'seems' to be in short supply. When you have this many people thinking like they do, things change Not seeing where the folks endorse things as an option. maybe its me and my reading skills.
critter928
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But that is not what you said;
And not even your second article says that.
How about you go to the actual poll and the question asked, and not repeat your drivel or your interpretation of it;
http://www.fdu.edu/newspubs/publicmind/2013/guncontrol/final.pdf
The question was;
That does not equate to your comment;
You chose to turn the poll into a 29% believing it is a certainty they will be at war with their government and your interpretations to meet your view that an armed revolt is going to happen in the US, and thus why people are stockpiling.
You said 29% believe it is inevitable "they will be in an armed conflict against their government within the next few years".
The poll says nothing of the such, and nowhere in the poll does it suggest even those who think it "might be necessary" (a viable option) also think it is them that "will be in an armed conflict against their government".
You chose to twist the poll to make your implications and justify your sky is falling chicken little rant about ammunition supply here.
Your an alarmist fear mongering hack who is full of crap.
that is me)
Wow, and honest to boot! Hahaha.
Interesting story.
My wife is starting up getting into couponing - and this past Sunday we visited the Walmart near our house. As is my ritual, I swung by the ammo cabinet to get a look and of course - no .22 LR ammo whatsoever.
We come back last night (4 days later), and there are 4 boxes of Win555 at $21.47 (I believe), about 15 boxes of Win333 - and everything else is out (.22 wise). Of course, I consider ammo a form of savings, so I grab the last boxes of Win555's - but I noticed on the price label, there is a little sticker:
"15 March 2013" for the Win555's, "June 6 2012" for the Win333's.
I went to ask the Customer Service Manager what that date meant - and she said "That's the day it was stocked," which I suspect is a load of baloney - neither of those calibers of ammo were there 4 days ago.
I suspect those are the dates the ammo was PRICED.
What was interesting is I scanned through the cabinet, and almost ALL of the ammo had stickers dating back to at least midway through 2012, thus leading me to the conclusion that MOST ammo has not been priced to take into account the present demand dynamic.
Personally, I think the big debate over whether this spike in demand is permanent or temporary is irrelevant - the fact is, with big box retailers who don't specialize in ammunition, if ammo doesn't sell, it just sits on the shelf. My suspicion is knowing how their inventory management systems work, they have some software that triggers a low-inventory notification when stock of an item is low that prompts retail managers to order some more. The frequency of those triggers being set off give market analysts who do trend analysis (like the one's I do here) the actual data points they need to try to determine the price of those items that are ordered.
Obviously to maintain a JIT retail inventory system, those analysts don't want to have empty shelves or overstocked back rooms, so when they see repeated iterations of sustained demand - they increase the price. The whole premise to JIT is to have JUST ENOUGH inventory to meet demand, no more, no less.
Now the interesting dynamic to this system is let's say the ammunition price utterly tanks. The Walmarts and Canadian Tires out there will not price adjust there existing inventory until they have in-store data to substantiate such a move. That comes in two forms - sales, or customers coming in with customers bringing in ads from competitors or manufacturer coupons exercising their price match programs.
If you pay attention to your flyers - it is as rare as winged unicorns that you see big retailers advertising the price of ammo (I know I've never seen Win555 or Win333 advertised - even from Bass Pro or WSS).
As for sales - what I think is guarunteed if the price of ammo tanks - is big box retailers will not reduce the price for ammo and simply NOT order any new inventory in. This just creates a price plateau on the retail side. Federal Champion 525's are the best example I can think of. I recall them being about $19/box prior to the 2008 crisis, went up to $22, then $25 and have stayed at that price since.
So in other words - it's almost guaranteed you probably will NOT see the price for that brand of ammo coming down in a meaningful way for quite some time, and what is more likely, you'll see the price overshoot, come down a bit, and stay at a new high until there is another panic that justifies a price hike on the retail side.
Smaller retailers (like every sponsor of CGN) might undercut the big box competitors with lower prices, but their orders tend to be sporadic and smaller, and fast acting, price savvy hoarders tend to clear them out when they get them in.
The long and short of it - regardless of the reason behind the spike in demand, I see no reason to believe in the long term that the price of ammo will ever go down.
My wife is starting up getting into couponing - and this past Sunday we visited the Walmart near our house. As is my ritual, I swung by the ammo cabinet to get a look and of course - no .22 LR ammo whatsoever.
We come back last night (4 days later), and there are 4 boxes of Win555 at $21.47 (I believe), about 15 boxes of Win333 - and everything else is out (.22 wise). Of course, I consider ammo a form of savings, so I grab the last boxes of Win555's - but I noticed on the price label, there is a little sticker:
"15 March 2013" for the Win555's, "June 6 2012" for the Win333's.
I went to ask the Customer Service Manager what that date meant - and she said "That's the day it was stocked," which I suspect is a load of baloney - neither of those calibers of ammo were there 4 days ago.
I suspect those are the dates the ammo was PRICED.
What was interesting is I scanned through the cabinet, and almost ALL of the ammo had stickers dating back to at least midway through 2012, thus leading me to the conclusion that MOST ammo has not been priced to take into account the present demand dynamic.
Personally, I think the big debate over whether this spike in demand is permanent or temporary is irrelevant - the fact is, with big box retailers who don't specialize in ammunition, if ammo doesn't sell, it just sits on the shelf. My suspicion is knowing how their inventory management systems work, they have some software that triggers a low-inventory notification when stock of an item is low that prompts retail managers to order some more. The frequency of those triggers being set off give market analysts who do trend analysis (like the one's I do here) the actual data points they need to try to determine the price of those items that are ordered.
Obviously to maintain a JIT retail inventory system, those analysts don't want to have empty shelves or overstocked back rooms, so when they see repeated iterations of sustained demand - they increase the price. The whole premise to JIT is to have JUST ENOUGH inventory to meet demand, no more, no less.
Now the interesting dynamic to this system is let's say the ammunition price utterly tanks. The Walmarts and Canadian Tires out there will not price adjust there existing inventory until they have in-store data to substantiate such a move. That comes in two forms - sales, or customers coming in with customers bringing in ads from competitors or manufacturer coupons exercising their price match programs.
If you pay attention to your flyers - it is as rare as winged unicorns that you see big retailers advertising the price of ammo (I know I've never seen Win555 or Win333 advertised - even from Bass Pro or WSS).
As for sales - what I think is guarunteed if the price of ammo tanks - is big box retailers will not reduce the price for ammo and simply NOT order any new inventory in. This just creates a price plateau on the retail side. Federal Champion 525's are the best example I can think of. I recall them being about $19/box prior to the 2008 crisis, went up to $22, then $25 and have stayed at that price since.
So in other words - it's almost guaranteed you probably will NOT see the price for that brand of ammo coming down in a meaningful way for quite some time, and what is more likely, you'll see the price overshoot, come down a bit, and stay at a new high until there is another panic that justifies a price hike on the retail side.
Smaller retailers (like every sponsor of CGN) might undercut the big box competitors with lower prices, but their orders tend to be sporadic and smaller, and fast acting, price savvy hoarders tend to clear them out when they get them in.
The long and short of it - regardless of the reason behind the spike in demand, I see no reason to believe in the long term that the price of ammo will ever go down.
Sure, to the front facing consumer it sure appears that way - but that doesn't change their underlying business practices.
Ammo is such a niche market (relative to other consumer goods) and supply chains especially unpredictable, regardless of demand (commodities being the largest input cost, and commodities themselves having artificially wild fluctuations in price).
The thing is, Walmart (and Canadian Tire) don't stock ammo because they specialize in selling ammunition. They stock it as a marketing tool to get people to do repeat, in-store sales. If you know Walmart (or CT) SELLS ammo, you are more likely to visit them if you're a gunnut, regardless of their inventory.
Case in point, without asking about ammo availability, ask anyone on this forum Where would you rather go? Michael's, Toys R Us, or Walmart - I guarantee you the answer will be Walmart, and the reason will be because they SELL ammo, hunting equipment, and firearms maintenance and support supplies/equipment.
This to me is the most encouraging reason to buy as much ammunition as I can (I consider it a form of savings).
The fact that the panic buying is subsiding is irrelevant, at the very least, it means more guns are in the hands of more people - so even if "most" of those people just squirrel away a few boxes - it still means MORE people are actually going out shooting than there were before this spike happened.
That especially being the case, very few people will have large, deep, stockpiles of ammunition for when the next spike rolls around. Few people who like shooting also have the discipline to refrain from shooting more, when they have more - so I reiterate, I can see it being very unlikely that the price of ammo will ever come down.
I think the dynamic is really changing in the firearms community (especially in Canada). Just look at all the .223 tacti-cool rifles that have flooded the market over the past few years - CSA's, Kel Tec SU-16, Norinco CQAs, Norinco T97 - the list goes on. Who are buying and shooting these? Young or Young at heart shooters who like scary, cool looking, mall-Ninja guns.
I think the Fudds and a new emerging group of Neo-con Baby-Boomer shooters who might have been pro-gun in the 90's and probably shoot handguns - are deluding themselves about the reality of the future of the shooting community. Personally, I think young people who buy civilian-ized "assault rifle" and tens of thousands of rounds of ammo will completely change the dynamic of the shooting community, very much for the better, while the "Glory Days" shooters who are obsessed with perceptions and who think shooting is a puritanical, gated community activity will probably fade away into obscurity and irrelevance.
The 555, at Walmart, earlier I said was$21.99, I was mistaken it is $21.27! I believe they lowered the price. I can see a big box retailer like Wallyworld getting pretty much whatever they want, even if there is a shortage in the U.S, if WM has an ongoing contract with a supplier such as winchester then they will be fed first before anyone else and wm will distribute the ammo as it sees fit. I have yet to see anything out of the ordinary here in Canada!
Mal-Wart works on a computerized re-ordering system and it takes into consideration the turns a product has during the year and adjusts for higher sales at various times. They of all retailers will get more than their fair share as they are massive buyers and volume talks.
You don't understand retail if you think prices will drop like a stone when this situation eases. Profit is not a dirty word, no matter who is making it and publicly traded companies want profit, it keep shareholders happy.
Manufacturers will do their very best to keep prices up after the present situation eases, they also like to keep sharholders happy.
Ammo has been cheap for years and this is a perfect opportunity to raise prices, just like gas companies do when the price of oil rises, they just neglect to bring them back to where they sould be when the price of crude drops like a stone. To think Blazer 525 is going to be $19.95 again, won't happen.
There will not be a glut of ammo that is made in the USA, it will not be allowed to happen and if there is a glut it will be from offshore imports where once you order it you will get it. The US manufacturers can cut production in a blink and will do so to prevent a glut, they are business people not people who intend to give shooters cheap ammo by over producing.
We have been told that there's a lack of surplus 7.62X39 from some of the old East Block countries, just a good sales pitch to raise the price of what suppliers have onhand here in Canada. This week I asked someone I know that is in supply for a old East Block army, said they still have a few BILLION rounds. Bet they have a few warehouses full of 5.45 as well. IIRC I haven't seen a single surplus "39" round from this country.
If you find ammo you need at a fair price, buy it.
Gouging will end but prices will settle higher than they have been and they will stay there.
You don't understand retail if you think prices will drop like a stone when this situation eases. Profit is not a dirty word, no matter who is making it and publicly traded companies want profit, it keep shareholders happy.
Manufacturers will do their very best to keep prices up after the present situation eases, they also like to keep sharholders happy.
Ammo has been cheap for years and this is a perfect opportunity to raise prices, just like gas companies do when the price of oil rises, they just neglect to bring them back to where they sould be when the price of crude drops like a stone. To think Blazer 525 is going to be $19.95 again, won't happen.
There will not be a glut of ammo that is made in the USA, it will not be allowed to happen and if there is a glut it will be from offshore imports where once you order it you will get it. The US manufacturers can cut production in a blink and will do so to prevent a glut, they are business people not people who intend to give shooters cheap ammo by over producing.
We have been told that there's a lack of surplus 7.62X39 from some of the old East Block countries, just a good sales pitch to raise the price of what suppliers have onhand here in Canada. This week I asked someone I know that is in supply for a old East Block army, said they still have a few BILLION rounds. Bet they have a few warehouses full of 5.45 as well. IIRC I haven't seen a single surplus "39" round from this country.
If you find ammo you need at a fair price, buy it.
Gouging will end but prices will settle higher than they have been and they will stay there.
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The new cabelas opened here with an absolute ef-tonne of ammo. The old store had run out of bulk cans of .22 over a month ago. They simply didn't bother restocking. There was enough .22 in the new place the other day to put a backwards bend in the leaf springs of more than one half tonne I expect...
critter928
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Are you implying there is some ammunition cartel that colludes in unison to dictate supply levels to set a price point they want? Are they OPEC now?
There are plenty of competitors in the US ammunition manufacturing market, and they have invested heavily in production capacity recently that needs to be paid for, and that does not happen idling production lines.
So no one is going to pay for that investment infrastructure by scaling back production to keep prices high because their competitors will simply increase their production to take advantage of the price.
So I fail to see how you think it will "not be allowed to happen" as when demand drops and the manufacturers are competing with each other for that demand I find it laughable they will band together to "cut that production in a blink of an eye" to idle down all this newly invested manufacturing capacity. They will be fighting each other for customers, and coming up with novel ways to sell their products over each other be it "Zombie Max" ammunition, or "Swamp People" packaging, or selling bulk packs at attractive price points. It is called free market capitalism and healthy competition, and it will benefit the patient consumer who does not buy into a panic.
I don't think he, nor I said to buy into the panic - I think we're saying the same thing that there is no way the price for ammunition can go down, so if you can find it at last year's price (or lower) it's a good price.
Also, free market capitalism is a theory and does not exist under our current, global economic paradigm. The market for EVERY commodity and consumer good imaginable is rigged. Personally, what I see those manufacturers doing when demand subsides, is keep the price for ammo the same, but instead of selling 500 round bricks, sell only 400 round bricks. I think Winchester could easily get away with scaling back production of Win555's and instead mass produce Win333's with the higher retail sticker price.
You do bring up a good point with the added infrastructure that these manufacturers have added, but remember one interesting wild card in this formula is that any US manufacturer under the provisions of the National Defence Resource Preparedness executive order Obama passed last year can have that infrastructure confiscated by the government by the stroke of pen.
whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/03/16/executive-order-national-defense-resources-preparedness
Personally, I think this is one of the big reasons so many Americans are stocking up.
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