If the importer has to pay
Canadian government talks about the “nuclear option” being shutting off oil to the us. There is no Canadian pipeline that takes oil from the west to Ontario, Quebec, ns, nb, pei or nl. There is no pipeline that runs north of Lake Superior. Trump administrations “nuclear option” is turning off line 5and 6b, cutting off the eastern 3\4 of the country from the place where the oil is and they aren’t even talking about it yet. If that happened we would try to send it east by rail but there is a limit currently. The federal government will need to oversee building a pipeline north around superior to Thunder Bay to load onto tankers for sarnia, Montreal and nanticoke or go all the way around through the soo down to sarnia, to connect with line 9. Pipelines take years or decades to build. Currently the cheapest way to get oil from ab to Canadian consumers in the east would be through trans mountain, onto a tanker in Vancouver, south all the way around Mexico through the Panama Canal, back up to the st Lawrence, into the Great Lakes. It’s worth noting that there is a limit on the size of salt water vessel that can enter the Great Lakes system due to the st Lawerence seaway and welland canal locks limitations. About 1000ft length but the ships beam and draft are the controlling factors.
Small ships, all the way around the continent or rail across the rocks of Manitoba and northern Ontario are the only way to get western Canadian oil to the majority of the Canadian consumers if the us decides to turn off line 5 and you can bet the trump admin knows it