Exactly,
Flyers Do they Exist
- Thread starter Longbow
- Start date
Exactly,
To me, a flyer is an inexplicably wild shot. I know when I've fired a good shot, and I can usually tell when I haven't.
Wild is relative, of course. 4 shots into a minute and a 5th 2 minutes away is definitely a flyer, outlier, whatever you want to call it.
And they exist, the only difference being how many shots you need to fire to get one. The better the load, rifle, etc.. the more shots it takes.
Inconsistent bullets, a poor barrel, sloppy loading, there are a myriad of possible causes. The shooter is one of the biggest causes, but a wild shot caused by shooter error isn't a flyer in my opinion. It's just poor shooting.
A wise man once said, "A group never got smaller by firing more shots into it"
Wild is relative, of course. 4 shots into a minute and a 5th 2 minutes away is definitely a flyer, outlier, whatever you want to call it.
And they exist, the only difference being how many shots you need to fire to get one. The better the load, rifle, etc.. the more shots it takes.
Inconsistent bullets, a poor barrel, sloppy loading, there are a myriad of possible causes. The shooter is one of the biggest causes, but a wild shot caused by shooter error isn't a flyer in my opinion. It's just poor shooting.
A wise man once said, "A group never got smaller by firing more shots into it"
I have spoiled many groups by firing the second shot....
- Location
- Okanagan Valley B.C.
flyers
This is some of the most consistent ammunition which
I have shot .
I have been shooting this case of SK Standard Plus
for 2 years in 3 different rimfire rifles .
Anschutz 1710 HB , Cooper Montana Varminter , CZ 457 MTR
The percentage of shots which go astray is 15 to 20%
not out of the group by large margins tho consistently
the same distances.
... skwerl
This is some of the most consistent ammunition which
I have shot .
I have been shooting this case of SK Standard Plus
for 2 years in 3 different rimfire rifles .
Anschutz 1710 HB , Cooper Montana Varminter , CZ 457 MTR
The percentage of shots which go astray is 15 to 20%
not out of the group by large margins tho consistently
the same distances.
... skwerl
Attachments
How can anyone argue they don't? All you have to do is buy 2 different boxes of factory ammo and see that one groups better than another. Even with that scenario you would expect exerything to be consistent though in the real world there's variables. I'll rebute after a couple responses but convince me why different ammo works better in different firearms.
OkayShooter
CGN Ultra frequent flyer
- Location
- Nova Scotia
I would say for rimfire they do. As often you can hear a different tone.
Mystic Precision
CGN Ultra frequent flyer
- Location
- Summerland, BC
From an F class perspective, quality everything, dialed in as best I can, shooting huge sample sizes, blah, blah, blah.... under these conditions, flyers are very rare. If there are WTFs, it can be addressed by mechanical issues like a scope failing, poor batch of primers, bedding damage, stock breakage, loose scope base or rings...
... someone (not naming names) forgetting to do something really important in case prep, powder dispensing or bullet stuffing....
At this level, a flyer is almost always a mechanical flaw (or user error) that can be located and addressed. And if the shooter wants to do well, he/she will be very aware of any driver error that caused that out... relative to the conditions.
At this level, the system is so consistently robust, load testing with large rds per groups is redundant... I run 2 and 3 rds tests at each load increment at distance. If the shots don't go through the same hole or be real close to doing so... I move on to the next load. In a game were 1/3 MOA (or better) at 1000yds is necessary, a 1/2 moa load isn't interesting.
When I find the best load at mid range, then the bulk testing begins with final testing confirmed AT 1000yds.
Confirming your system with 17 to 30rds in a relay (times 5 to 6 relays) under match conditions at 1000yds, will prove whether a system is working or not.
Are shooters as consistent and repeatable as their accuracy goals demand? Is their rifle set up consistent and repeatable? Are their barrels?
are their rests and supports as stable as their accuracy goals demand? If shooters are running foldy bipods, I would suggest ALOT of those flyers are system errors.
Are they shooting accurate bullets? If you look at the manf list used in upper levels of centerfire competition, you will notice only a few brands of bullets used. ALOT of brands just aren't good enough and can vary enough to fly out of a group... but maybe that out may still be in a larger pattern
Are the rifles truly as accurate as shooter THINK they are? and by extension, the ammo used?
Once you drop out of full meal deal competition gear, prep and application, increasing the sample size of the groups is a good idea as the system itself may have 'looser' limits.
For rimfire, flyers are a thing we have to manage... ammo is everything
Jerry
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A wise man once said, "A group never got smaller by firing more shots into it"
That's true. It's also true that as number of shots fired into the group increase you reach a point where the group size doesn't get any bigger or at least is very unlikely to do so. I would submit that is the point where accuracy should be established.
I think that people have become obsessed with small three shot groups to the point that it has become an end in itself, and the plot is lost.
Lets look at it differently. Our ammo burnt on groups is a test sample. Test some of it to accurately be able to predict what would happen if we shoot all of it. Let's suppose we have enough components to load 1000 rounds of something. Would 3 shots be enough to predict what the next 997 will do? That seems unlikely, since a single three shot group can barely predict within 50% what the next three shot group will measure. It would sort of indicate that the next three shot group will be a triangle but that's about it.
It's unlikely that the 997 remainders would form a triangle, since normal distribution would be a circle with 2 at the extreme outsides with everything else in between with the vast majority being in the middle or close to it. Until a sample is big enough to show normal distribution (a bell curve) it doesn't predict much of anything well.
How about 5? That might be enough to produce the round group that we would expect, but not enough to display the dense center. At 10 shots it begins to be evident, and by 20 its obvious, and at 30 its hard to deny. Now you're starting to get somewhere, its a pretty good guess that after 30 you could put almost everything of the remaining 930 into that group. If we called those that fell aside flyers it wouldn't hurt much.
Those shots don't all have to be taken at the same time, though an F Class rifle that can't take a 15 or 20 shot string isn't good for much. For a hunting rifle 7 three shot groups with the targets stacked for the big picture might be a better indicator than 20 straight. Three times three is probably good enough.
That's true. It's also true that as number of shots fired into the group increase you reach a point where the group size doesn't get any bigger or at least is very unlikely to do so. I would submit that is the point where accuracy should be established.
I think that people have become obsessed with small three shot groups to the point that it has become an end in itself, and the plot is lost.
Lets look at it differently. Our ammo burnt on groups is a test sample. Test some of it to accurately be able to predict what would happen if we shoot all of it. Let's suppose we have enough components to load 1000 rounds of something. Would 3 shots be enough to predict what the next 997 will do? That seems unlikely, since a single three shot group can barely predict within 50% what the next three shot group will measure. It would sort of indicate that the next three shot group will be a triangle but that's about it.
It's unlikely that the 997 remainders would form a triangle, since normal distribution would be a circle with 2 at the extreme outsides with everything else in between with the vast majority being in the middle or close to it. Until a sample is big enough to show normal distribution (a bell curve) it doesn't predict much of anything well.How about 5? That might be enough to produce the round group that we would expect, but not enough to display the dense center. At 10 shots it begins to be evident, and by 20 its obvious, and at 30 its hard to deny. Now you're starting to get somewhere, its a pretty good guess that after 30 you could put almost everything of the remaining 930 into that group. If we called those that fell aside flyers it wouldn't hurt much.
Those shots don't all have to be taken at the same time, though an F Class rifle that can't take a 15 or 20 shot string isn't good for much. For a hunting rifle 7 three shot groups with the targets stacked for the big picture might be a better indicator than 20 straight. Three times three is probably good enough.
Lotsa paper killed and primers pissed away around here. Screwed on a new 22 Bleedmoor barrel on an old Rem action. Seated 40 gr Blitz kings over 40gr of Varmint , one shot @100yds and one @250. Been using it to defend the dead pile, so far 35 cold bore shots resulted in 35 dead critters, most furred some feathered. Longest shots around 400yds. No 3 shot groups, no 5 shot groups and no 10 round volleys. Barrel has yet to see a patch and I skipped all the brake in nonsense . I’ll leave all that tail chasing to the xpurts.
prairie lover
CGN Regular
- Location
- southern MB
You know I've shot a pile of 204 bullets. Burnt out multiple barrels in the process. Fired many groups. I have never gotten a load that would put 10 out of 10 39 gr sierra blitzkings in a .500 or better group. 5 yes. 5 twice in a row yes. 10 shot groups not once. 9 out of 10 many times. Flier opening it up to 5/8 or even 3/4. I know its not me. My 6mmbr will do it no problem. I was doing load work with a buddies 223 once and shot 2 10 shot groups in a row under .500 with 2 different powders and 55 gr sierra blitzkings. I feel that people blame fliers on themselves, even good shooters cause they dont want to believe that their darling rifle does anything but hit the same hole every time.
Its clearly evident with rimfire 22s. The quieter rounds hit low. Your typical cheap hv pre covid ammo would have on average 3 fliers in a 10 shot group that would stray from the main pack.
Its clearly evident with rimfire 22s. The quieter rounds hit low. Your typical cheap hv pre covid ammo would have on average 3 fliers in a 10 shot group that would stray from the main pack.
Some things I've learned over the years of shooting and reloading:
1. There's a lot of myth and lore in reloading, and lots of conjecture.
2. Reloaders have a very low threshold of testing and data quality, and make faulty/flawed conclusions as a result (which directly contributes to #1). No discipline is immune, in fact some of the more precision based disciplines have these issues much more often than many would care to admit.
3. Shooters like to contribute ANY issues seen on target on the gear and equipment they use, rarely do they consider and address the most likely issue (the shooter).
4. Quality components and reloading equipment makes reloading easy and ammo consistent. Don't cheap out, you get what you pay for.
5. Reloaders have an extremely poor grasp of statistics and statistical analysis. While those 3-shot vanity pictures of your chronograph readings are great for clicks from your social media followers, they really aren't representational at all of the quality of your ammo.
1. There's a lot of myth and lore in reloading, and lots of conjecture.
2. Reloaders have a very low threshold of testing and data quality, and make faulty/flawed conclusions as a result (which directly contributes to #1). No discipline is immune, in fact some of the more precision based disciplines have these issues much more often than many would care to admit.
3. Shooters like to contribute ANY issues seen on target on the gear and equipment they use, rarely do they consider and address the most likely issue (the shooter).
4. Quality components and reloading equipment makes reloading easy and ammo consistent. Don't cheap out, you get what you pay for.
5. Reloaders have an extremely poor grasp of statistics and statistical analysis. While those 3-shot vanity pictures of your chronograph readings are great for clicks from your social media followers, they really aren't representational at all of the quality of your ammo.
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Williamsport runs their 1,000 yard benchrest matches by score and group size for a 10 shot string. .
I remember quite a few years ago, one if their better shooters had an average of 8" for ten targets , can't remember the average score however.
Quite impressive. In the World Championships that year he put his second shot RIGHT OFF THE TARGET!!
Oopps, thanks for coming out!
Cat
I remember quite a few years ago, one if their better shooters had an average of 8" for ten targets , can't remember the average score however.
Quite impressive. In the World Championships that year he put his second shot RIGHT OFF THE TARGET!!
Oopps, thanks for coming out!
Cat
Went to the range today, brought my wife's 6BRA to shoot some groups with and get some chrono information.
Was a perfect demonstration on how the shooter is the most likely cause of "flyers". Every one of my groups with that rifle had one "flyer". All groups were around 0.50 MOA including the "flyer", but they all would've been .25 MOA or better without that "flyer", with one approaching 1/10 MOA. I knew exactly which shot was going to be a "flyer" when I pulled the trigger, it was called each time.
One of the issues was that I was battling a bipod with loose cant, and had to rebuild my position after shots. I was also rushing through building my position, I was shooting pretty rapidly. Some of it was lack of concentration at times and rushing.
I would say in most cases, the shooter is the cause of "flyers".
Was a perfect demonstration on how the shooter is the most likely cause of "flyers". Every one of my groups with that rifle had one "flyer". All groups were around 0.50 MOA including the "flyer", but they all would've been .25 MOA or better without that "flyer", with one approaching 1/10 MOA. I knew exactly which shot was going to be a "flyer" when I pulled the trigger, it was called each time.
One of the issues was that I was battling a bipod with loose cant, and had to rebuild my position after shots. I was also rushing through building my position, I was shooting pretty rapidly. Some of it was lack of concentration at times and rushing.
I would say in most cases, the shooter is the cause of "flyers".
I have one lot of ELEY Match EPS 22 rimfire ammo that is so consistent in 2 of my match rimfires that I
account any (rare) flyer to myself.
My personal experience with my centerfire loads leads me to believe that flyers are quite uncommon,
when considering a 10 shot group, as Ganderite mentioned.
But, humans being the shaky platform we are, occasionally cause a "flyer" that has no other explanation.
Dave.
account any (rare) flyer to myself.
My personal experience with my centerfire loads leads me to believe that flyers are quite uncommon,
when considering a 10 shot group, as Ganderite mentioned.
But, humans being the shaky platform we are, occasionally cause a "flyer" that has no other explanation.
Dave.
In a 10 shot (possibly) or twenty shot group (certainly) you can find just about any group size or shape or combination you can imagine by selectively picking a few bullet holes. There will be some bug-holes, some clover-leafs, some 2 or 4 together and a flyer that opened up the group, several equilateral triangles, some double groups, a doughnut or 2, some that look like a 5 on a dice, the dreaded stringer group whether vertical, horizontal or diagonal, the extreme outliers that give you a hugeish group that you would abandon a load over in development stage, at least one of your initials, a few groups that would be ample reason to change your zero and if I've forgotten your favorite or non-favorite its probably in there somewhere too. If not; back off another few hundred yards. Never mind that you could see all that by accidently knocking a 50 box of hand-loads off the bench or spilling your tackle box, not that you would but those who are without sin may they cast that first stone.......................... Then guys wonder why their rifle shot better yesterday.
I don't think I've seen a single instance on this thread of anyone mentioning having a set of benchrest style wind indicators for close range, range flags for longer; or a slave scope for measuring target displacement from mirage.
On another note, I hear that doing a jig-saw puzzle with 3/4s of the pieces missing and no picture on the box is a fine and rewarding hobby. Never mind that you can be successful and still never see the big picture.
I don't think I've seen a single instance on this thread of anyone mentioning having a set of benchrest style wind indicators for close range, range flags for longer; or a slave scope for measuring target displacement from mirage.
On another note, I hear that doing a jig-saw puzzle with 3/4s of the pieces missing and no picture on the box is a fine and rewarding hobby.
Never mind that you can be successful and still never see the big picture.
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